Towards a fair comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative

Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods are well established techniques to bridge the gap between the coarse information produced by global circulation models and the regional-to-local scales required by the climate change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) communities. A number of studies have analyzed the relative merits of each technique by inter-comparing their performance in reproducing the observed climate, as given by a number of climatic indices (e.g. mean values, percentiles, spells). However, in this paper we stress that fair comparisons should be based on indices that are not affected by the calibration towards the observed climate used for some of the methods. We focus on precipitation (over continental Spain) and consider the output of eight Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.44? resolution and five Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDMs) ?analog resampling, weather typing and generalized linear models? trained using the Spain044 observational gridded dataset on exactly the same RCM grid. The performance of these models is inter-compared in terms of several standard indices ?mean precipitation, 90th percentile on wet days, maximum precipitation amount and maximum number of consecutive dry days? taking into account the parameters involved in the SDM training phase. It is shown, that not only the directly affected indices should be carefully analyzed, but also those indirectly influenced (e.g. percentile-based indices for precipitation) which are more difficult to identify. We also analyze how simple transformations (e.g. linear scaling) could be applied to the outputs of the uncalibrated methods in order to put SDMs and RCMs on equal footing, and thus perform a fairer comparison.We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Regional Climate, and theWorking Group on CoupledModelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We also thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure and AEMET and University of Cantabria for the Spain02 dataset (available at http: //www.meteo.unican.es/en/datasets/spain02). All the statistical downscaling experiments have been computed using theMeteoLab software (http://www.meteo.unican.es/software/meteolab), which is an open-source Matlab toolbox for statistical downscaling. This work has been partially supported by CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02) and EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) projects funded by the Spanish R&D programme. AC thanks the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for the funding provided within the FPI programme (BES-2011-047612 and EEBB-I-13-06354), JMG acknowledges the support from the SPECS project (FP7-ENV-2012-308378) and JF is grateful to the EUPORIAS project (FP7-ENV-2012-308291). We also thank three anonymous referees for their useful comments that helped to improve the original manuscript

Daily precipitation statistics in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble: added value of raw and bias-corrected high-resolution simulations

Daily precipitation statistics as simulated by the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble are evaluated over two distinct regions of the European continent, namely the European Alps and Spain. The potential added value of the high-resolution 12 km experiments with respect to their 50 km resolution counterparts is investigated. The statistics considered consist of wet-day intensity and precipitation frequency as a measure of mean precipitation, and three precipitation-derived indicators (90th percentile on wet days?90pWET, contribution of the very wet days to total precipitation?R95pTOT and number of consecutive dry days?CDD). As reference for model evaluation high resolution gridded observational data over continental Spain (Spain011/044) and the Alpine region (EURO4M-APGD) are used. The assessment and comparison of the two resolutions is accomplished not only on their original horizontal grids (approximately 12 and 50 km), but the high-resolution RCMs are additionally regridded onto the coarse 50 km grid by grid cell aggregation for the direct comparison with the low resolution simulations. The direct application of RCMs e.g. in many impact modelling studies is hampered by model biases. Therefore bias correction (BC) techniques are needed at both resolutions to ensure a better agreement between models and observations. In this work, the added value of the high resolution (before and after the bias correction) is assessed and the suitability of these BC methods is also discussed. Three basic BC methods are applied to isolate the effect of biases in mean precipitation, wet-day intensity and wet-day frequency on the derived indicators. Daily precipitation percentiles are strongly affected by biases in the wet-day intensity, whereas the dry spells are better represented when the simulated precipitation frequency is adjusted to the observed one. This confirms that there is no single optimal way to correct for RCM biases, since correcting some distributional features typically leads to an improvement of some aspects but to a deterioration of others. Regarding mean seasonal biases before the BC, we find only limited evidence for an added value of the higher resolution in the precipitation intensity and frequency or in the derived indicators. Thereby, evaluation results considerably depend on the RCM, season and indicator considered. High resolution simulations better reproduce the indicators? spatial patterns, especially in terms of spatial correlation. However, this improvement is not statistically significant after applying specific BC methods.The authors are grateful to Prof. C. Schär for his helpful comments and E. van Meijgaard for making available the RACMO model data. We acknowledge the observational data providers. Calculations for WRF311F were made using the TGCC super computers under the GENCI time allocation GEN6877. The WRF331A from CRP-GL (now LIST) was funded by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) through grant FNR C09/SR/16 (CLIMPACT). The KNMI-RACMO2 simulations were supported by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. The CCLM and REMO simulations were supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and performed under the Konsortial share at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). The CCLM simulations were furthermore supported by the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) under project ID s78. Part of the SMHI contribution was carried out in the Swedish Mistra-SWECIA programme founded by Mistra (the Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research). This work is supported by CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02) and EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) projects funded by the Spanish R&D programme and the European COST ACTION VALUE (ES1102). A. C. thanks the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for the funding provided within the FPI programme (BES-2011-047612 and EEBB-I-13-06354). We also thank two anonymous referees for their useful comments that helped to improve the original manuscript

Measurement of inclusive π0\pi^{0} production in hadronic Z0Z^{0} decays

An analysis is presented of inclusive \pi^0 production in Z^0 decays measured with the DELPHI detector. At low energies, \pi^0 decays are reconstructed by \linebreak using pairs of converted photons and combinations of converted photons and photons reconstructed in the barrel electromagnetic calorimeter (HPC). At high energies (up to x_p = 2 \cdot p_{\pi}/\sqrt{s} = 0.75) the excellent granularity of the HPC is exploited to search for two-photon substructures in single showers. The inclusive differential cross section is measured as a function of energy for {q\overline q} and {b \bar b} events. The number of \pi^0's per hadronic Z^0 event is N(\pi^0)/ Z_{had}^0 = 9.2 \pm 0.2 \mbox{(stat)} \pm 1.0 \mbox{(syst)} and for {b \bar b}~events the number of \pi^0's is {\mathrm N(\pi^0)/ b \overline b} = 10.1 \pm 0.4 \mbox{(stat)} \pm 1.1 \mbox{(syst)} . The ratio of the number of \pi^0's in b \overline b events to hadronic Z^0 events is less affected by the systematic errors and is found to be 1.09 \pm 0.05 \pm 0.01. The measured \pi^0 cross sections are compared with the predictions of different parton shower models. For hadronic events, the peak position in the \mathrm \xi_p = \ln(1/x_p) distribution is \xi_p^{\star} = 3.90^{+0.24}_{-0.14}. The average number of \pi^0's from the decay of primary \mathrm B hadrons is found to be {\mathrm N} (B \rightarrow \pi^0 \, X)/\mbox{B hadron} = 2.78 \pm 0.15 \mbox{(stat)} \pm 0.60 \mbox{(syst)}

Search for new phenomena using single photon events in the DELPHI detector at LEP

Data are presented on the reaction \epem~\into~\gamma + no other detected particle at center-of-mass energies, \sqs = 89.48 GeV, 91.26 GeV and 93.08 GeV. The cross section for this reaction is related directly to the number of light neutrino generations which couple to the \zz boson, and to several other phenomena such as excited neutrinos, the production of an invisible `X' particle, a possible magnetic moment of the tau neutrino, and neutral monojets. Based on the observed number of single photon events, the number of light neutrinos which couple to the \zz is measured to be N_\nu = 3.15 \pm 0.34. No evidence is found for anomalous production of energetic single photons, and upper limits at the 95\% confidence level are determined for excited neutrino production (BR < 4-9 \times 10^{-6}), production of an invisible `X' particle (\sigma < 0.1 pb), and the magnetic moment of the tau neutrino (< 5.2 \times 10^{-6} \mu_B). No event with the topology of a neutral monojet is found, and this corresponds to the limit \sigma < 0.044/\epsilon pb at the 95\% confidence level, where \epsilon is the unknown overall monojet detection efficiency

Energy dependence of the differences between the quark and gluon jet fragmentation

Three jet events arising from decays of the Z boson, collected by the DELPHI detector, were used to measure differences in quark and gluon fragmentation. Gluon jets were anti-tagged by identifying b quark jets. Unbiased quark jets came from events with two jets plus one photon. Quark and gluon jet properties in different energy ranges were compared for the first time within the same detector. Quark and gluon jets of nearly the same energy in symmetric three jet event topologies were also compared. Using three independent methods, the average value of the ratio of the mean charged multiplicities of gluon and quark jets is $$=1.241\pm 0.015\ (stat.) \pm 0.025\ (syst.).$$ Gluon jets are broader and produce fragments with a softer energy spectrum than quark jets of equivalent energy. The string effect has been observed in fully symmetric three jet events. The measured ratio R_{\gamma} of the charged particle flow in the q\overline{q} inter-jet region of the q\bar{q}g and q\bar{q}\gamma samples agrees with the perturbative QCD expectation. The dependence of the mean charged multiplicity on the hadronic center-of-mass energy was analysed in photon plus n-jet events. The value for \alpha_s(M_Z) determined from these data using a QCD prediction with corrections at leading and next-to-leading order is \[ \alpha_s(M_Z)=0.116 \pm 0.003\ (stat.) \pm 0.009\ (syst.). \

Measurement of the Bd0^{0}_{d} oscillation frequency using kaons, leptons and jet charge

A measurement of the mass difference, \Delta m_d, between the two physical \mbox{B}^0_d states has been obtained from the analysis of the impact parameter distribution of a lepton emitted at large transverse momentum (p_t) relative to the jet axis and from the analysis of the flight distance distribution of secondary vertices tagged by either a high p_t lepton or an identified kaon. In the opposite hemisphere of the event, the charge of the initial quark has been evaluated using a high p_t lepton, a charged kaon or the mean jet charge. With 1.7 million hadronic Z^0 decays recorded by DELPHI between 1991 and 1993, \Delta m_d is found to be: \Delta m_d = 0.531^{+0.050}_{-0.046} ~(stat.) \pm 0.078 ~(syst.) ~ {\mathrm{ps}}^{-1} \,

Search for Neutral Heavy Leptons Produced in Z Decays

Weak isosinglet Neutral Heavy Leptons ($\nu_m$) have been searched for using data collected by the DELPHI detector corresponding to $3.3\times 10^{6}$ hadronic~Z$^{0}$ decays at LEP1. Four separate searches have been performed, for short-lived $\nu_m$ production giving monojet or acollinear jet topologies, and for long-lived $\nu_m$ giving detectable secondary vertices or calorimeter clusters. No indication of the existence of these particles has been found, leading to an upper limit for the branching ratio $BR($Z$^0\rightarrow \nu_m \overline{\nu})$ of about $1.3\times10^{-6}$ at 95\% confidence level for $\nu_m$ masses between 3.5 and 50 GeV/$c^2$. Outside this range the limit weakens rapidly with the $\nu_m$ mass. %Special emphasis has been given to the search for monojet--like topologies. One event %has passed the selection, in agreement with the expectation from the reaction: %$e^+e^- \rightarrow\ell \bar\ell \nu\bar\nu$. The results are also interpreted in terms of limits for the single production of excited neutrinos

Measurement of the Quark and Gluon Fragmentation Functions in Z0Z^0 Hadronic Decays

The fragmentation functions and multiplicities in $b\overline{b}$ and light quark events are compared. The measured transverse and longitudinal components of the fragmentation function allow the gluon fragmentation function to be evaluated

Investigation of the splitting of quark and gluon jets

The splitting processes in identified quark and gluon jets are investigated using longitudinal and transverse observables. The jets are selected from symmetric three-jet events measured in Z decays with the Delphi detector in 1991-1994. Gluon jets are identified using heavy quark anti-tagging. Scaling violations in identified gluon jets are observed for the first time. The scale energy dependence of the gluon fragmentation function is found to be about two times larger than for the corresponding quark jets, consistent with the QCD expectation TeX . The primary splitting of gluons and quarks into subjets agrees with fragmentation models and, for specific regions of the jet resolution TeX , with NLLA calculations. The maximum of the ratio of the primary subjet splittings in quark and gluon jets is TeX . Due to non-perturbative effects, the data are below the expectation at small TeX . The transition from the perturbative to the non-perturbative domain appears at smaller TeX for quark jets than for gluon jets. Combined with the observed behaviour of the higher rank splittings, this explains the relatively small multiplicity ratio between gluon and quark jets