The Search for Invariance: Repeated Positive Testing Serves the Goals of Causal Learning

Positive testing is characteristic of exploratory behavior, yet it seems to be at odds with the aim of information seeking. After all, repeated demonstrations of one’s current hypothesis often produce the same evidence and fail to distinguish it from potential alternatives. Research on the development of scientific reasoning and adult rule learning have both documented and attempted to explain this behavior. The current chapter reviews this prior work and introduces a novel theoretical account—the Search for Invariance (SI) hypothesis—which suggests that producing multiple positive examples serves the goals of causal learning. This hypothesis draws on the interventionist framework of causal reasoning, which suggests that causal learners are concerned with the invariance of candidate hypotheses. In a probabilistic and interdependent causal world, our primary goal is to determine whether, and in what contexts, our causal hypotheses provide accurate foundations for inference and intervention—not to disconfirm their alternatives. By recognizing the central role of invariance in causal learning, the phenomenon of positive testing may be reinterpreted as a rational information-seeking strategy

Opposing Effects of Climate and Permafrost Thaw on CH4 and CO2 Emissions From Northern Lakes

Funder: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research CouncilFunder: Northern Scientific Training Program, University of AlbertaFunder: UAlberta North, Vanier Canada Graduate ScholarshipW. Garfield Weston FoundationAbstract: Small, organic‐rich lakes are important sources of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, yet the sensitivity of emissions to climate warming is poorly constrained and potentially influenced by permafrost thaw. Here, we monitored emissions from 20 peatland lakes across a 1,600 km permafrost transect in boreal western Canada. Contrary to expectations, we observed a shift from source to sink of CO2 for lakes warmer regions, driven by greater primary productivity associated with greater hydrological connectivity to lakes and nutrient availability in the absence of permafrost. Conversely, an 8‐fold increase in CH4 emissions in warmer regions was associated with water temperature and shifts in microbial communities and dominant anaerobic processes. Our results suggest that the net radiative forcing from altered greenhouse gas emissions of northern peatland lakes this century will be dominated by increasing CH4 emissions and only partially offset by reduced CO2 emissions

Shear-induced pressure changes and seepage phenomena in a deforming porous layer-I

We present a model for flow and seepage in a deforming, shear-dilatant sensitive porous layer that enables estimates of the excess pore fluid pressures and flow rates in both the melt and solid phase to be captured simultaneously as a function of stress rate. Calculations are relevant to crystallizing magma in the solidosity range 0.5–0.8 (50–20 per cent melt), corresponding to a dense region within the solidification front of a crystallizing magma chamber. Composition is expressed only through the viscosity of the fluid phase, making the model generally applicable to a wide range of magma types. A natural scaling emerges that allows results to be presented in non-dimensional form. We show that all length-scales can be expressed as fractions of the layer height H, timescales as fractions of H2(nβ'θ+ 1)/(θk) and pressures as fractions of . Taking as an example the permeability k in the mush of the order of magnitude 1015 m2 Pa1 s1, a layer thickness of tens of metres and a mush strength (θ) in the range 108–1012 Pa, an estimate of the consolidation time for near-incompressible fluids is of the order of 105–109 s. Using mush permeability as a proxy, we show that the greatest maximum excess pore pressures develop consistently in rhyolitic (high-viscosity) magmas at high rates of shear ( , implying that during deformation, the mechanical behaviour of basaltic and rhyolitic magmas will differ. Transport parameters of the granular framework including tortuosity and the ratio of grain size to layer thickness (a/H) will also exert a strong effect on the mechanical behaviour of the layer at a given rate of strain. For dilatant materials under shear, flow of melt into the granular layer is implied. Reduction in excess pore pressure sucks melt into the solidification front at a velocity proportional to the strain rate. For tectonic rates (generally 1014 s1), melt upwelling (or downwelling, if the layer is on the floor of the chamber) is of the order of cm yr1. At higher rates of loading comparable with emplacement of some magmatic intrusions (1010 s1), melt velocities may exceed effects due to instabilities resulting from local changes in density and composition. Such a flow carries particulates with it, and we speculate that these may become trapped in the granular layer depending on their sizes. If on further solidification the segregated grain size distribution of the particulates is frozen in the granular layer, structure formation including layering and grading may result. Finally, as the process settles down to a steady state, the pressure does not continue to decrease. We find no evidence for critical rheological thresholds, and the process is stable until so much shear has been applied that the granular medium fails, but there is no hydraulic failure

Effect of Sub-Lethal Exposure to Ultraviolet Radiation on the Escape Performance of Atlantic Cod Larvae (Gadus morhua)

The amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the earth's surface has increased due to depletion of the ozone layer. Several studies have reported that UV radiation reduces survival of fish larvae. However, indirect and sub-lethal impacts of UV radiation on fish behavior have been given little consideration. We observed the escape performance of larval cod (24 dph, SL: 7.6±0.2 mm; 29 dph, SL: 8.2±0.3 mm) that had been exposed to sub-lethal levels of UV radiation vs. unexposed controls. Two predators were used (in separate experiments): two-spotted goby (Gobiusculus flavescens; a suction predator) and lion's mane jellyfish (Cyanea capillata; a “passive" ambush predator). Ten cod larvae were observed in the presence of a predator for 20 minutes using a digital video camera. Trials were replicated 4 times for goby and 5 times for jellyfish. Escape rate (total number of escapes/total number of attacks ×100), escape distance and the number of larvae remaining at the end of the experiment were measured. In the experiment with gobies, in the UV-treated larvae, both escape rate and escape distance (36%, 38±7.5 mm respectively) were significantly lower than those of control larvae (75%, 69±4.7 mm respectively). There was a significant difference in survival as well (UV: 35%, Control: 63%). No apparent escape response was observed, and survival rate was not significantly different, between treatments (UV: 66%, Control: 74%) in the experiment with jellyfish. We conclude that the effect and impact of exposure to sub-lethal levels of UV radiation on the escape performance of cod larvae depends on the type of predator. Our results also suggest that prediction of UV impacts on fish larvae based only on direct effects are underestimations

Translating Clinical Findings into Knowledge in Drug Safety Evaluation - Drug Induced Liver Injury Prediction System (DILIps)

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a significant concern in drug development due to the poor concordance between preclinical and clinical findings of liver toxicity. We hypothesized that the DILI types (hepatotoxic side effects) seen in the clinic can be translated into the development of predictive in silico models for use in the drug discovery phase. We identified 13 hepatotoxic side effects with high accuracy for classifying marketed drugs for their DILI potential. We then developed in silico predictive models for each of these 13 side effects, which were further combined to construct a DILI prediction system (DILIps). The DILIps yielded 60–70% prediction accuracy for three independent validation sets. To enhance the confidence for identification of drugs that cause severe DILI in humans, the “Rule of Three” was developed in DILIps by using a consensus strategy based on 13 models. This gave high positive predictive value (91%) when applied to an external dataset containing 206 drugs from three independent literature datasets. Using the DILIps, we screened all the drugs in DrugBank and investigated their DILI potential in terms of protein targets and therapeutic categories through network modeling. We demonstrated that two therapeutic categories, anti-infectives for systemic use and musculoskeletal system drugs, were enriched for DILI, which is consistent with current knowledge. We also identified protein targets and pathways that are related to drugs that cause DILI by using pathway analysis and co-occurrence text mining. While marketed drugs were the focus of this study, the DILIps has a potential as an evaluation tool to screen and prioritize new drug candidates or chemicals, such as environmental chemicals, to avoid those that might cause liver toxicity. We expect that the methodology can be also applied to other drug safety endpoints, such as renal or cardiovascular toxicity

IL-10 Signaling Blockade Controls Murine West Nile Virus Infection

West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne single-stranded RNA flavivirus, can cause significant human morbidity and mortality. Our data show that interleukin-10 (IL-10) is dramatically elevated both in vitro and in vivo following WNV infection. Consistent with an etiologic role of IL-10 in WNV pathogenesis, we find that WNV infection is markedly diminished in IL-10 deficient (IL-10−/−) mice, and pharmacologic blockade of IL-10 signaling by IL-10 neutralizing antibody increases survival of WNV-infected mice. Increased production of antiviral cytokines in IL-10−/− mice is associated with more efficient control of WNV infection. Moreover, CD4+ T cells produce copious amounts of IL-10, and may be an important cellular source of IL-10 during WNV infection in vivo. In conclusion, IL-10 signaling plays a negative role in immunity against WNV infection, and blockade of IL-10 signaling by genetic or pharmacologic means helps to control viral infection, suggesting a novel anti-WNV therapeutic strategy

Integrated monitoring of mola mola behaviour in space and time

Over the last decade, ocean sunfish movements have been monitored worldwide using various satellite tracking methods. This study reports the near-real time monitoring of finescale (< 10 m) behaviour of sunfish. The study was conducted in southern Portugal in May 2014 and involved satellite tags and underwater and surface robotic vehicles to measure both the movements and the contextual environment of the fish. A total of four individuals were tracked using custom-made GPS satellite tags providing geolocation estimates of fine-scale resolution. These accurate positions further informed sunfish areas of restricted search (ARS), which were directly correlated to steep thermal frontal zones. Simultaneously, and for two different occasions, an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) videorecorded the path of the tracked fish and detected buoyant particles in the water column. Importantly, the densities of these particles were also directly correlated to steep thermal gradients. Thus, both sunfish foraging behaviour (ARS) and possibly prey densities, were found to be influenced by analogous environmental conditions. In addition, the dynamic structure of the water transited by the tracked individuals was described by a Lagrangian modelling approach. The model informed the distribution of zooplankton in the region, both horizontally and in the water column, and the resultant simulated densities positively correlated with sunfish ARS behaviour estimator (r(s) = 0.184, p < 0.001). The model also revealed that tracked fish opportunistically displace with respect to subsurface current flow. Thus, we show how physical forcing and current structure provide a rationale for a predator's finescale behaviour observed over a two weeks in May 2014