Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany

Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901–2015, 1901–1950 and 1951–2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951–2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951–2015) and winter (1901–2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of −3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies

The contrasting effects of genome size, chromosome number and ploidy level on plant invasiveness: a global analysis

• Understanding how species' traits relate to their status (e.g. invasiveness or rarity) is important because it can help to efficiently focus conservation and management effort and infer mechanisms affecting plant status. This is particularly important for invasiveness, in which proactive action is needed to restrict the establishment of potentially invasive plants. • We tested the ability of genome size (DNA 1C-values) to explain invasiveness and compared it with cytogenetic traits (chromosome number and ploidy level). We considered 890 species from 62 genera, from across the angiosperm phylogeny and distributed from tropical to boreal latitudes. • We show that invasiveness was negatively related to genome size and positively related to chromosome number (and ploidy level), yet there was a positive relationship between genome size and chromosome number; that is, our result was not caused by collinearity between the traits. Including both traits in explanatory models greatly increased the explanatory power of each. • This demonstrates the potential unifying role that genome size, chromosome number and ploidy have as species' traits, despite the diverse impacts they have on plant physiology. It provides support for the continued cataloguing of cytogenetic traits and genome size of the world's flora

Not all weeds are created equal: A database approach uncovers differences in the sexual system of native and introduced weeds

Weedy species provide excellent opportunities to examine the process of successful colonization of novel environments. Despite the influence of the sexual system on a variety of processes from reproduction to genetic structure, how the sexual system of species influences weediness has received only limited consideration. We examined the hypothesis that weedy plants have an increased likelihood of being selfâ compatible compared with nonweedy plants; this hypothesis is derived from Baker’s law, which states that species that can reproduce uniparentally are more likely to successfully establish in a new habitat where mates are lacking. We combined a database of the weed (weedy/nonweedy) and introduction status (introduced/native) of plant species found in the USA with a database of plant sexual systems and determined whether native and introduced weeds varied in their sexual systems compared with native and introduced nonweeds. We found that introduced weeds are overrepresented by species with both male and female functions present within a single flower (hermaphrodites) whereas weeds native to the USA are overrepresented by species with male and female flowers present on a single plant (monoecious species). Overall, our results show that Baker’s law is supported at the level of the sexual system, thus providing further evidence that uniparental reproduction is an important component of being either a native or introduced weed.Species that can reproduce uniparentally should be more likely to successfully establish in a new habitat where mates are lacking (Baker’s law). We examined whether weedy native and introduced species follow this pattern and have an increased likelihood of uniparental reproduction. We found that introduced weeds are enriched for species with both male and female functions present within a single flower (hermaphrodites) while weeds native to the USA are enriched for species with male and female flowers present on a single plant (monoecious species), supporting Baker’s law at the level of the sexual system.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136673/1/ece32820.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136673/2/ece32820_am.pd

Correlations between global and regional measures of invasiveness vary with region size

We aimedto assess the utility of the Global Compendium of Weeds (GCW) as an indicator of plant invasiveness, by relating it to invasiveness at smaller scales. We correlated two global measures of invasiveness for alien plant species taken from the GCW (the total number of references for each species and the number of continental areas they are reported from), against distribution data from 18 regions (countries and continents). To investigate relationships between correlation strength and region size and spatial resolution (size of distribution units), we conducted meta-analyses. Finally, invasiveness measures were correlated against the number of habitats occupied by alien plant species and their median abundance in those habitats, in fine-scale vegetation plots in the Czech Republic and the state of Montana (USA). The majority of Spearman’s rho coefficients between GCW-derived invasiveness and regional distributions were less than 0.4. Correlation strength was positively related to region size and resolution. Correlations were weaker when the number of habitats occupied by a species, and species abundances within occupied habitats, were considered. We suggest that the use of the GCW as an invasiveness measure is most appropriate for hypotheses posed at coarse, large scales. An exhaustive synthesis of existing regional distributions should provide a more accurate index of the global invasiveness of species

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 +/- 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 +/- 197), Northern America (1,484 +/- 74) and Southern America (1,391 +/- 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species

A four‐component classification of uncertainties in biological invasions: implications for management

Although uncertainty is an integral part of any science, it raises doubts in public perception about scientific evidence, is exploited by denialists, and therefore potentially hinders the implementation of management actions. As a relatively young field of study, invasion science contains many uncertainties. This may explain why, despite international policies aimed at mitigating biological invasions, the implementation of national- and regional-scale measures to prevent or control alien species has done little to slow the increase in extent of invasions and the magnitude of impacts. Uncertainty is therefore a critical aspect of invasion science that should be addressed to enable the field to progress further. To improve how uncertainties in invasion science are captured and characterized, we propose a framework, which is also applicable to other applied research fields such as climate and conservation science, divided into four components: the need (1) to clearly circumscribe the phenomenon, (2) to measure and provide evidence for the phenomenon (i.e., confirmation), (3) to understand the mechanisms that cause the phenomenon, and (4) to understand the mechanisms through which the phenomenon results in consequences. We link these issues to three major types of uncertainty: linguistic, psychological, and epistemic. The application of this framework shows that the four components tend to be characterized by different types of uncertainty in invasion science.We explain how these uncertainties can be detrimental to the implementation of management measures and propose ways to reduce them. Since biological invasions are increasingly tightly embedded in complex socio-ecological systems, many problems associated with these uncertainties have convoluted solutions. They demand the consensus of many stakeholders to define and frame the dimensions of the phenomenon, and to decide on appropriate actions. While many of the uncertainties cannot be eliminated completely, we believe that using this framework to explicitly identify and communicate them will help to improve collaboration between researchers and managers, increase scientific, political, and public support for invasion research, and provide a stronger foundation for sustainable management strategies

Patterns of plant naturalization show that facultative mycorrhizal plants are more likely to succeed outside their native Eurasian ranges

The naturalization of an introduced species is a key stage during the invasion process. Therefore, identifying the traits that favor the naturalization of non-native species can help understand why some species are more successful when introduced to new regions. The ability and the requirement of a plant species to form a mutualism with mycorrhizal fungi, together with the types of associations formed may play a central role in the naturalization success of different plant species. To test the relationship between plant naturalization success and their mycorrhizal associations we analysed a database composed of mycorrhizal status and type for 1981 species, covering 155 families and 822 genera of plants from Europe and Asia, and matched it with the most comprehensive database of naturalized alien species across the world (GloNAF). In mainland regions, we found that the number of naturalized regions was highest for facultative mycorrhizal, followed by obligate mycorrhizal and lowest for non-mycorrhizal plants, suggesting that the ability of forming mycorrhizas is an advantage for introduced plants. We considered the following mycorrhizal types: arbuscular, ectomycorrhizal, ericoid and orchid mycorrhizal plants. Further, dual mycorrhizal species were those that included observations of arbuscular mycorrhizas as well as observations of ectomycorrhizas. Naturalization success (based on the number of naturalized regions) was highest for arbuscular mycorrhizal and dual mycorrhizal plants, which may be related to the low host specificity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and the consequent high availability of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal partners. However, these patterns of naturalization success were erased in islands, suggesting that the ability to form mycorrhizas may not be an advantage for establishing self-sustaining populations in isolated regions. Taken together our results show that mycorrhizal status and type play a central role in the naturalization process of introduced plants in many regions, but that their effect is modulated by other factorsFil: Moyano, Jaime. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Dickie, Ian. University of Canterbury; Nueva ZelandaFil: Rodriguez Cabal, Mariano Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Nuñez, Martin Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentin

Population genomic and historical analysis suggests a global invasion by bridgehead processes in Mimulus guttatus

© 2021, The Author(s). Imperfect historical records and complex demographic histories present challenges for reconstructing the history of biological invasions. Here, we combine historical records, extensive worldwide and genome-wide sampling, and demographic analyses to investigate the global invasion of Mimulus guttatus from North America to Europe and the Southwest Pacific. By sampling 521 plants from 158 native and introduced populations genotyped at >44,000 loci, we determined that invasive M. guttatus was first likely introduced to the British Isles from the Aleutian Islands (Alaska), followed by admixture from multiple parts of the native range. We hypothesise that populations in the British Isles then served as a bridgehead for vanguard invasions worldwide. Our results emphasise the highly admixed nature of introduced M. guttatus and demonstrate the potential of introduced populations to serve as sources of secondary admixture, producing novel hybrids. Unravelling the history of biological invasions provides a starting point to understand how invasive populations adapt to novel environments

Climate change will increase naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe

Aim: Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Location Europe. Methods: We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Results: Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate