An analysis of reasonableness models for research assessments

Individuals who screen research grant applications often select candidates on the basis of a few key parameters; success or failure can be reduced to a series of peer-reviewed Likert scores on as little as four criteria: risk, relevance, return, and reasonableness. Despite the vital impact these assessments have upon the sponsors, researchers, and society in general as a benefactor of the research, there is little empirical research into the peer-review process. The purpose of this study was to investigate how reviewers evaluate reasonableness and how the process can be modeled in a decision support system. The research questions both address the relationship between an individual\u27s estimates of reasonableness and the indicators of scope, resources, cost, and schedule as well as evaluate the performance of several cognitive models as predictors of reasonableness. Building upon Brunswik\u27s theory of probabilistic functionalism, a survey methodology was used to implement a policy-capturing exercise that yielded a quantitative baseline of reasonableness estimates. The subsequent data analysis addressed the predictive performance of six cognitive models as measured by the mean-square-deviation between the models and the data. A novel mapping approach developed by von Helversen and Rieskamp, a fuzzy logic model, and an exemplar model were found to outperform classic linear regression. A neural network model and the QuickEst heuristic model did not perform as well as linear regression. This information can be used in a decision support system to improve the reliability and validity of future research assessments. The positive social impact of this work would be more efficient allocation and prioritization of increasingly scarce research funds in areas of science such as social, psychological, medical, pharmaceutical, and engineering

Vehicle Assembly Building Fire Mishap Investigation Report. Volume I of V

On January 13, 2005, at approximately 1355, smoke was noticed on the 4th floor of D Tower in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). Subsequently, a 911 call was made, a fire alarm pull station was activated, and the VAB was evacuated. The source of the smoke was determined to be a fire on the Low Bay M/N section roof near the Launch Control Center (LCC) Crossover. Due to the high visibility of the mishap, the KSC Center Director appointed a Mishap Investigation Board. Damage to government property was limited to the roof and a small number of ceiling tiles that were damaged by the fire fighters during the response. At the time of the mishap, there were hazardous commodities in the VAB including Solid Rocket Motors (SRMs) with open grain due to Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) igniter inspections. The Board agrees with the SGS Fire Services' theory that large amounts of smoke concentrated in the VAB D Tower and moved downward into the cable tunnel. The Board determined the proximate cause of this incident to be torching. HRI was installing a torch applied roof membrane which resulted in the ignition of combustible materials under the membrane near a wooden roof expansion joint. The torch applied roofing method is a universally accepted safe industry practice when applied to non-combustible surfaces. The combination of an open flame torch and combustible materiaLs presents an increased level of risk even with skilled applicators. The addition of high winds to this combination results in a risk the Board thinks can not be adequately mitigated. An appropriate risk assessment and analysis must be performed on the proposed roofing method to be used on high visibility facilities which represent unique national assets even when using common industry practices for repair and modification. The Board identified three root causes which contributed to or created the proximate cause and, if eliminated or modified, would have prevented the mishap: 1. Combustible materials in existing roof system 2. Wind speed and direction 3. Inadequate fire watch technique. Two contributing factors were identified which may have contributed to the occurrence but, if eliminated or modified, would not have prevented the occurrence: 1. HRI rushed to dry in and seal the roof on January 13 because heavy rain was predicted for the next day 2. No guidance on torching in windy conditions A total of 17 significant observations were noted during this investigation, which could lead to another mishap, or increase the severity of a mishap, but were not contributing factors in this mishap

Combined impacts of elevated CO2 and anthropogenic noise on European sea bass

There is another record in ORE for this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32962Ocean acidification (OA) and anthropogenic noise are both known to cause stress and induce physiological and behavioural changes in fish, with consequences for fitness. OA is also predicted to reduce the ocean's capacity to absorb low-frequency sounds produced by human activity. Consequently, anthropogenic noise could propagate further under an increasingly acidic ocean. For the first time, this study investigated the independent and combined impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and anthropogenic noise on the behaviour of a marine fish, the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). In a fully factorial experiment crossing two CO2 levels (current day and elevated) with two noise conditions (ambient and pile driving), D. labrax were exposed to four CO2/noise treatment combinations: 400 µatm/ambient, 1000 µatm/ambient, 400 µatm/pile-driving, and 1000 µatm/pile-driving. Pile-driving noise increased ventilation rate (indicating stress) compared with ambient noise conditions. Elevated CO2 did not alter the ventilation rate response to noise. Furthermore, there was no interaction effect between elevated CO2 and pile-driving noise, suggesting that OA is unlikely to influence startle or ventilatory responses of fish to anthropogenic noise. However, effective management of anthropogenic noise could reduce fish stress, which may improve resilience to future stressors.Natural Environment Research Counci

Lateralization in the Invertebrate Brain: Left-Right Asymmetry of Olfaction in Bumble Bee, Bombus terrestris

Brain and behavioural lateralization at the population level has been recently hypothesized to have evolved under social selective pressures as a strategy to optimize coordination among asymmetrical individuals. Evidence for this hypothesis have been collected in Hymenoptera: eusocial honey bees showed olfactory lateralization at the population level, whereas solitary mason bees only showed individual-level olfactory lateralization. Here we investigated lateralization of odour detection and learning in the bumble bee, Bombus terrestris L., an annual eusocial species of Hymenoptera. By training bumble bees on the proboscis extension reflex paradigm with only one antenna in use, we provided the very first evidence of asymmetrical performance favouring the right antenna in responding to learned odours in this species. Electroantennographic responses did not reveal significant antennal asymmetries in odour detection, whereas morphological counting of olfactory sensilla showed a predominance in the number of olfactory sensilla trichodea type A in the right antenna. The occurrence of a population level asymmetry in olfactory learning of bumble bee provides new information on the relationship between social behaviour and the evolution of population-level asymmetries in animals

Environmental noise reduces predation rate in an aquatic invertebrate

Noise is one of a wide range of disturbances associated with human activities that have been shown to have detrimental impacts on a wide range of species, from montane regions to the deep marine environment. Noise may also have community-level impacts via predator–prey interactions, thus jeopardising the stability of trophic networks. However, the impact of noise on freshwater ecosystems is largely unknown. Even more so is the case of insects, despite their crucial role in trophic networks. Here, we study the impact of underwater noise on the predatory functional response of damselfly larvae. We compared the feeding rates of larvae under anthropogenic noise, natural noise, and silent conditions. Our results suggest that underwater noise (pooling the effects of anthropogenic noise and natural noise) decreases the feeding rate of damselflies significantly compared to relatively silent conditions. In particular, natural noise increased the handling time significantly compared to the silent treatment, thus reducing the feeding rate. Unexpectedly, feeding rates under anthropogenic noise were not reduced significantly compared to silent conditions. This study suggests that noise per se may not necessarily have negative impacts on trophic interactions. Instead, the impact of noise on feeding rates may be explained by the presence of nonlinearities in acoustic signals, which may be more abundant in natural compared to anthropogenic noise. We conclude by highlighting the importance of studying a diversity of types of acoustic pollution, and encourage further work regarding trophic interactions with insects using a functional response approach

Timing matters: traffic noise accelerates telomere loss rate differently across developmental stages

Background Noise pollution is one of the leading environmental health risks for humans, linked to a myriad of stress-related health problems. Yet little is known about the long-term effects of noise on the health and fitness of wildlife. We experimentally investigated the direct and cross-generational effects of traffic noise on telomeres; a measure of cellular ageing that is predictive of disease and longevity in humans and other organisms. We exposed zebra finches (Taenopygia guttata) to three different treatment groups: 1) parents were exposed to traffic noise before and during breeding, together with their nestling young, 2) fledged juveniles but not their parents were exposed to traffic noise, and 3) control group birds were never exposed to traffic noise. Results Although there was no significant effect of traffic noise exposure at early (pre-fledging) stages of offspring telomere length or loss rate, traffic noise exposure accelerated telomere loss in older (post-fledging) juveniles. Conclusions The age-dependent differences found in this study in telomere loss could occur if parents buffer younger offspring against the detrimental effects of noise exposure and/or if younger offspring are less sensitive to noise exposure. Telomere length during early life has been shown to be positively related to lifespan and the observed noise-induced increase of telomere attrition rate could reduce the fitness of the affected birds and potentially alter the population dynamics of birds in noise polluted areas. Our data highlight the need to consider the developmental stage of an organism to better understand the ecological consequences of anthropogenic change

Anthropogenic noise is associated with changes in acoustic but not visual signals in red-winged blackbirds

Some birds in noisy areas produce songs with higher frequency and/or amplitude and altered timing compared to individuals in quiet areas. These changes may function to increase the efficacy of acoustic signals by reducing masking by noise. We collected audio recordings of red-winged blackbirds and measured noise levels. We found that males in noisier places produced songs with fewer syllables and slower repeat rate of elements in some components (rattles). Birds may also improve the efficacy of communication in noise by increasing usage of other signaling modalities. Red-winged blackbirds also perform a visual display in different intensities while singing. We also tested whether this species performs the visual display in different intensities according to current noise levels, and predicted that if the efficacy of songs is impaired in noisy places, males would compensate by performing a more intense visual display. For this, we also collected visual recordings from the same males from which we obtained acoustic recordings. We found no association between acoustic noise and the intensity of the visual display; thus, our results do not support the idea that males are using the visual display as a backup signal to communicate under acoustic noise. We discuss some possible explanations of this negative finding and for the observed noise-related changes in song length and rattle rate in the context of communication under noise

APPLICATION OF EMERGING COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES TO THE CREATION OF A "VIRTUAL RANGE"

International Telemetering Conference Proceedings / October 25-28, 1993 / Riviera Hotel and Convention Center, Las Vegas, NevadaThis paper addresses the creation of a large virtual-range environment whereby multiple, geographically dispersed, test ranges may operate in concert to support test operations. The most significant benefit of the virtual range environment is the time-sharing of costly processing resources. Other benefits include improved reliability and responsiveness of inter-range data transfer. This paper will focus on existing and near-term technology that may be applied to create a virtual-range and will address the technological and economic advantages and disadvantages of TDM vs. ATM approaches.International Foundation for TelemeteringProceedings from the International Telemetering Conference are made available by the International Foundation for Telemetering and the University of Arizona Libraries. Visit http://www.telemetry.org/index.php/contact-us if you have questions about items in this collection