Structural Analysis of the Western Afar Margin, East Africa: Evidence for Multiphase Rotational Rifting

The Afar region in East Africa represents a key location to study continental breakup. We present an integrated structural analysis of the Western Afar Margin (WAM) aiming to better understand rifted margin development and the role of plate rotation during rifting. New structural information from remote sensing, fieldwork, and earthquake data sets reveals that the N-S striking WAM is still actively deforming and is characterized by NNW-SSE normal faulting as well as a series of marginal grabens. Seismicity distribution analysis and the first-ever borehole-calibrated sections of this developing passive margin show recent slip concentrated along antithetic faults. Tectonic stress parameters derived from earthquake focal mechanisms reveal different extension directions along the WAM (82°N), in Afar (66°N) and in the Main Ethiopian Rift (108°N). Fault slip analysis along the WAM yields the same extension direction. Combined with GPS data, this shows that current tectonics in Afar is dominated by the local rotation of the Danakil Block, considered to have occurred since 11 Ma. Earlier stages of Afar development (since 31–25 Ma) were most likely related to the large-scale rotation of the Arabian plate. Various authors have proposed scenarios for the evolution of the WAM. Any complete model should consider, among other factors, the multiphase tectonic history and antithetic fault activity of the margin. The findings of this study are not only relevant for a better understanding of the WAM but also provide insights into the role of multiphase rotational extension during rifting and passive margin formation in general.</p

Treatment-seeking behaviour for febrile illness in an area of seasonal malaria transmission in rural Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Very little is known about the management of malaria and treatment-seeking patterns among children and adults in areas of seasonal malaria transmission particularly in east Africa. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess treatment-seeking behaviour for reported malaria among all age groups in an area of seasonal transmission. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study was carried out among 2,253 households in 12 randomly selected rural kebeles in Adami Tulu district in south-central Ethiopia, during October-November 2003, using a pre-tested interviewer-administered structured questionnaire. RESULTS: Reported malaria was 14% among 12,225 people assessed during the last 14 days. Family/self-diagnosis was most common and the main first responses included visiting village-based community health workers (CHWs) (33%), public health facility (23%) and private clinic (17%). Home treatment was the least reported first response (3%). Only 13% had sought treatment within the first 24 hours of symptom onset. Early treatment-seeking pattern was reported among those who visited CHWs and practiced home treatment, with more delays among public facility users. Treatment-seeking behaviour was similar in all age groups. CONCLUSION: A considerable proportion of visits were made to CHWs and private providers, necessitating the importance of strengthening both community-based interventions and peripheral public and private facilities. Finally, the community should be informed and educated about the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment with effective antimalarials

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

Prediction of nitrogen excretion from data on dairy cows fed a wide range of diets compiled in an intercontinental database: A meta-analysis

Manure nitrogen (N) from cattle contributes to nitrous oxide and ammonia emissions and nitrate leaching. Measurement of manure N outputs on dairy farms is laborious, expensive, and impractical at large scales; therefore, models are needed to predict N excreted in urine and feces. Building robust prediction models requires extensive data from animals under different management systems worldwide. Thus, the study objectives were (1) to collate an international database of N excretion in feces and urine based on individual lactating dairy cow data from different continents; (2) to determine the suitability of key variables for predicting fecal, urinary, and total manure N excretion; and (3) to develop robust and reliable N excretion prediction models based on individual data from lactating dairy cows consuming various diets. A raw data set was created based on 5,483 individual cow observations, with 5,420 fecal N excretion and 3,621 urine N excretion measurements collected from 162 in vivo experiments conducted by 22 research institutes mostly located in Europe (n = 14) and North America (n = 5). A sequential approach was taken in developing models with increasing complexity by incrementally adding variables that had a significant individual effect on fecal, urinary, or total 2manure N excretion. Nitrogen excretion was predicted by fitting linear mixed models including experiment as a random effect. Simple models requiring dry matter intake (DMI) or N intake performed better for predicting fecal N excretion than simple models using diet nutrient composition or milk performance parameters. Simple models based on N intake performed better for urinary and total manure N excretion than those based on DMI, but simple models using milk urea N (MUN) and N intake performed even better for urinary N excretion. The full model predicting fecal N excretion had similar performance to simple models based on DMI but included several independent variables (DMI, diet crude protein content, diet neutral detergent fiber content, milk protein), depending on the location, and had root mean square prediction errors as a fraction of the observed mean values of 19.1% for intercontinental, 19.8% for European, and 17.7% for North American data sets. Complex total manure N excretion models based on N intake and MUN led to prediction errors of about 13.0% to 14.0%, which were comparable to models based on N intake alone. Intercepts and slopes of variables in optimal prediction equations developed on intercontinental, European, and North American bases differed from each other, and therefore region-specific models are preferred to predict N excretion. In conclusion, region-specific models that include information on DMI or N intake and MUN are required for good prediction of fecal, urinary, and total manure N excretion. In absence of intake data, region-specific complex equations using easily and routinely measured variables to predict fecal, urinary, or total manure N excretion may be used, but these equations have lower performance than equations based on intake

Mathematical modeling of the dynamic storage of iron in ferritin

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Iron is essential for the maintenance of basic cellular processes. In the regulation of its cellular levels, ferritin acts as the main intracellular iron storage protein. In this work we present a mathematical model for the dynamics of iron storage in ferritin during the process of intestinal iron absorption. A set of differential equations were established considering kinetic expressions for the main reactions and mass balances for ferritin, iron and a discrete population of ferritin species defined by their respective iron content.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Simulation results showing the evolution of ferritin iron content following a pulse of iron were compared with experimental data for ferritin iron distribution obtained with purified ferritin incubated <it>in vitro </it>with different iron levels. Distinctive features observed experimentally were successfully captured by the model, namely the distribution pattern of iron into ferritin protein nanocages with different iron content and the role of ferritin as a controller of the cytosolic labile iron pool (cLIP). Ferritin stabilizes the cLIP for a wide range of total intracellular iron concentrations, but the model predicts an exponential increment of the cLIP at an iron content > 2,500 Fe/ferritin protein cage, when the storage capacity of ferritin is exceeded.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results presented support the role of ferritin as an iron buffer in a cellular system. Moreover, the model predicts desirable characteristics for a buffer protein such as effective removal of excess iron, which keeps intracellular cLIP levels approximately constant even when large perturbations are introduced, and a freely available source of iron under iron starvation. In addition, the simulated dynamics of the iron removal process are extremely fast, with ferritin acting as a first defense against dangerous iron fluctuations and providing the time required by the cell to activate slower transcriptional regulation mechanisms and adapt to iron stress conditions. In summary, the model captures the complexity of the iron-ferritin equilibrium, and can be used for further theoretical exploration of the role of ferritin in the regulation of intracellular labile iron levels and, in particular, as a relevant regulator of transepithelial iron transport during the process of intestinal iron absorption.</p

Urban malaria and associated risk factors in Jimma town, south-west Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria kills millions around the world. Until recently it was believed to be a disease of rural areas, since the <it>Anopheles </it>mosquito, which transmits <it>Plasmodium </it>species breeds in rural areas. Urban malaria is emerging as a potential, but "avertable" crisis, in Africa. In view of the rapidly growing number of small and medium-sized towns in Ethiopia there is a pressing need to improve the understanding of the epidemiology of malaria. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine malaria prevalence and associated risk factors in Jimma town.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was carried out in Jimma town from April 1 to May 28, 2010. 804 study participants were included from 291 households for microscopic examination of malaria parasites. Socio-demography data and risk factors were collected using structured questionnaires. Logistic regression analysis was done using SPSS 15.0 statistical software.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From a total of 804 study participants in current survey only 42 (5.2%) were positive for malaria parasites. <it>Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium falciparum </it>and mixed infection accounted 71.4%, 26.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Higher malaria prevalence rate was observed among under-five children (11%). Those who do not use insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN) were more likely to be infected with malaria (OR = 13.6; 95% CI 4.9-37.2, p < 0.001) compared with those who use the ITN. Living in areas where stagnant water existed (OR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.00-4.2, p = 0.047) and its distance of existence <1 km from the house(OR = 2.1; 95% CI 2.0-15.8, p = 0.001) were more likely to be infected with malaria parasite compared with those who live away from stagnant at a distance greater than 1 km.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Malaria is a major health problem with <it>P. vivax </it>becoming a predominant species in the town. The prevalence was strongly associated with proximity of residence to potential mosquito breeding sites. Malaria is affecting significant proportions of the urban settlers and human activities nevertheless play an important role in bringing the mosquito breeding sites closer to residences.</p

Lysosomes in iron metabolism, ageing and apoptosis

The lysosomal compartment is essential for a variety of cellular functions, including the normal turnover of most long-lived proteins and all organelles. The compartment consists of numerous acidic vesicles (pH ∼4 to 5) that constantly fuse and divide. It receives a large number of hydrolases (∼50) from the trans-Golgi network, and substrates from both the cells’ outside (heterophagy) and inside (autophagy). Many macromolecules contain iron that gives rise to an iron-rich environment in lysosomes that recently have degraded such macromolecules. Iron-rich lysosomes are sensitive to oxidative stress, while ‘resting’ lysosomes, which have not recently participated in autophagic events, are not. The magnitude of oxidative stress determines the degree of lysosomal destabilization and, consequently, whether arrested growth, reparative autophagy, apoptosis, or necrosis will follow. Heterophagy is the first step in the process by which immunocompetent cells modify antigens and produce antibodies, while exocytosis of lysosomal enzymes may promote tumor invasion, angiogenesis, and metastasis. Apart from being an essential turnover process, autophagy is also a mechanism by which cells will be able to sustain temporary starvation and rid themselves of intracellular organisms that have invaded, although some pathogens have evolved mechanisms to prevent their destruction. Mutated lysosomal enzymes are the underlying cause of a number of lysosomal storage diseases involving the accumulation of materials that would be the substrate for the corresponding hydrolases, were they not defective. The normal, low-level diffusion of hydrogen peroxide into iron-rich lysosomes causes the slow formation of lipofuscin in long-lived postmitotic cells, where it occupies a substantial part of the lysosomal compartment at the end of the life span. This seems to result in the diversion of newly produced lysosomal enzymes away from autophagosomes, leading to the accumulation of malfunctioning mitochondria and proteins with consequent cellular dysfunction. If autophagy were a perfect turnover process, postmitotic ageing and several age-related neurodegenerative diseases would, perhaps, not take place

Postoperative outcomes in oesophagectomy with trainee involvement

BACKGROUND: The complexity of oesophageal surgery and the significant risk of morbidity necessitates that oesophagectomy is predominantly performed by a consultant surgeon, or a senior trainee under their supervision. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of trainee involvement in oesophagectomy on postoperative outcomes in an international multicentre setting. METHODS: Data from the multicentre Oesophago-Gastric Anastomosis Study Group (OGAA) cohort study were analysed, which comprised prospectively collected data from patients undergoing oesophagectomy for oesophageal cancer between April 2018 and December 2018. Procedures were grouped by the level of trainee involvement, and univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to compare patient outcomes across groups. RESULTS: Of 2232 oesophagectomies from 137 centres in 41 countries, trainees were involved in 29.1 per cent of them (n = 650), performing only the abdominal phase in 230, only the chest and/or neck phases in 130, and all phases in 315 procedures. For procedures with a chest anastomosis, those with trainee involvement had similar 90-day mortality, complication and reoperation rates to consultant-performed oesophagectomies (P = 0.451, P = 0.318, and P = 0.382, respectively), while anastomotic leak rates were significantly lower in the trainee groups (P = 0.030). Procedures with a neck anastomosis had equivalent complication, anastomotic leak, and reoperation rates (P = 0.150, P = 0.430, and P = 0.632, respectively) in trainee-involved versus consultant-performed oesophagectomies, with significantly lower 90-day mortality in the trainee groups (P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Trainee involvement was not found to be associated with significantly inferior postoperative outcomes for selected patients undergoing oesophagectomy. The results support continued supervised trainee involvement in oesophageal cancer surgery

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks