Meta-analysis in metastatic uveal melanoma to determine progression free and overall survival benchmarks : an international rare cancers initiative (IRCI) ocular melanoma study

Background: Despite the completion of numerous phase II studies, a standard of care treatment has yet to be defined for metastatic uveal melanoma (mUM). To determine benchmarks of progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), we carried out a meta-analysis using individual patient level trial data. Methods: Individual patient variables and survival outcomes were requested from 29 trials published from 2000 to 2016. Univariable and multivariable analysis were carried out for prognostic factors. The variability between trial arms and between therapeutic agents on PFS and OS was investigated. Results: OS data were available for 912 patients. The median PFS was 3.3 months (95% CI 2.9-3.6) and 6-month PFS rate was 27% (95% CI 24-30). Univariable analysis showed male sex, elevated (i.e. > versus = 3 cm versus Conclusion: Benchmarks of 6-month PFS and 1-year OS rates were determined accounting for prognostic factors. These may be used to facilitate future trial design and stratification in mUM.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global Research Priorities to Better Understand the Burden of Iatrogenic Harm in Primary Care: An International Delphi Exercise

There is a need to identify and reach agreement on key foci for patient safety research in primary care contexts and understand how these priorities differ between low-, middle-, and high-income settings. We conducted a modified Delphi exercise, which was distributed to an international panel of experts in patient safety and primary care. Family practice and pharmacy were considered the main contexts on which to focus attention in order to advance patient safety in primary care across all income categories. Other clinical contexts prioritised included community midwifery and nursing in low-income countries and care homes in high-income countries. The sources of patient safety incidents requiring further study across all economic settings that were identified were communication between health care professionals and with patients, teamwork within the health care team, laboratory and diagnostic imaging investigations, issues relating to data management, transitions between different care settings, and chart/patient record com- pleteness. This work lays the foundation for a range of research initiatives that aim to promote a more comprehensive appreciation of the burden of unsafe primary care, develop understanding of the main areas of risk, and identify interventions that can enhance the safety of primary care provision internationall

Genetic Analysis of HIV-1 Subtypes in Nairobi, Kenya

Background: Genetic analysis of a viral infection helps in following its spread in a given population, in tracking the routes of infection and, where applicable, in vaccine design. Additionally, sequence analysis of the viral genome provides information about patterns of genetic divergence that may have occurred during viral evolution. Objective: In this study we have analyzed the subtypes of Human Immunodeficiency Virus -1 (HIV-1) circulating in a diverse sample population of Nairobi, Kenya. Methodology: 69 blood samples were collected from a diverse subject population attending the Aga Khan University Hospital in Nairobi, Kenya. Total DNA was extracted from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), and used in a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) to amplify the HIV gag gene. The PCR amplimers were partially sequenced, and alignment and phylogenetic analysis of these sequences was performed using the Los Alamos HIV Database. Results: Blood samples from 69 HIV-1 infected subjects from varying ethnic backgrounds were analyzed. Sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis showed 39 isolates to be subtype A, 13 subtype D, 7 subtype C, 3 subtype AD and CRF01_AE, 2 subtype G and 1 subtype AC and 1 AG. Deeper phylogenetic analysis revealed HIV subtype A sequences to be highly divergent as compared to subtypes D and C. Conclusion: Our analysis indicates that HIV-1 subtypes in the Nairobi province of Kenya are dominated by a genetically diverse clade A. Additionally, the prevalence of highly divergent, complex subtypes, intersubtypes, and the recombinant forms indicates viral mixing in Kenyan population, possibly as a result of dual infections

Medication errors in the Middle East countries: a systematic review of the literature

Background: Medication errors are a significant global concern and can cause serious medical consequences for patients. Little is known about medication errors in Middle Eastern countries. The objectives of this systematic review were to review studies of the incidence and types of medication errors in Middle Eastern countries and to identify the main contributory factors involved. Methods: A systematic review of the literature related to medication errors in Middle Eastern countries was conducted in October 2011 using the following databases: Embase, Medline, Pubmed, the British Nursing Index and the Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature. The search strategy included all ages and languages. Inclusion criteria were that the studies assessed or discussed the incidence of medication errors and contributory factors to medication errors during the medication treatment process in adults or in children. Results: Forty-five studies from 10 of the 15 Middle Eastern countries met the inclusion criteria. Nine (20%) studies focused on medication errors in paediatric patients. Twenty-one focused on prescribing errors, 11 measured administration errors, 12 were interventional studies and one assessed transcribing errors. Dispensing and documentation errors were inadequately evaluated. Error rates varied from 7.1% to 90.5% for prescribing and from 9.4% to 80% for administration. The most common types of prescribing errors reported were incorrect dose (with an incidence rate from 0.15% to 34.8% of prescriptions), wrong frequency and wrong strength. Computerised physician rder entry and clinical pharmacist input were the main interventions evaluated. Poor knowledge of medicines was identified as a contributory factor for errors by both doctors (prescribers) and nurses (when administering drugs). Most studies did not assess the clinical severity of the medication errors. Conclusion: Studies related to medication errors in the Middle Eastern countries were relatively few in number and of poor quality. Educational programmes on drug therapy for doctors and nurses are urgently needed

The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis