Decomposing long-run carbon abatement cost curves - robustness and uncertainty

Policy makers in the United Kingdom (UK), as in many countries around the world, are confronted with a situation of legally binding commitments to reduce carbon emissions. In this context it remains an open question of how to find a cost-efficient approach to climate change mitigation. Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves have already been applied to help understand the economics of many different environmental problems and can likewise assist with illustrating the economics of climate change mitigation. Current approaches to generate MAC curves rely mostly on the individual assessment of each abatement measure, which are then ranked in order of decreasing cost-efficiency. These existing ways of generating MAC curves fail to allow both the graphical representation of the technological detail and the incorporation of system-wide behavioural, technological, and intertemporal interactions. They also fail to provide a framework for uncertainty analysis. This dissertation addresses these shortcomings by proposing a new approach to deriving MAC curves through the combination of an integrated energy system model, UK MARKAL, and index decomposition analysis. The energy system model is used to capture system-wide interactions, while decomposition analysis permits the analysis of measures responsible for emissions reduction. Sensitivity analysis and stochastic modelling are also employed to represent how sensitive the measures are to variations of the underlying drivers and assumptions, as well as how they interact. With a focus on the UK and the year 2030, as an important intermediate emissions reduction target, system-wide MAC curves are presented accompanied by a detailed analysis of the power, transport, and the residential sectors. This analysis allows important insights to be made into the economics of emissions mitigation, as well as investigating the robustness of findings. The results of the dissertation project represent a suitable orientation base for decision making in long-term climate policy

The future for bioenergy systems: the role of BECCS?

Many global decarbonisation scenarios suggest that bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is an important option for CO2 emissions mitigation. Bioenergy has been well modelled in the TIAM‐UCL model, with previous work having identified the significant impact of BECCS on the projected costs of achieving a 2 °C target (McGlade et al., Unavailable). This chapter builds on this work, using TIAM‐UCL to investigate the extent to which BECCS is critical for meeting global CO2 reduction targets under different long‐term scenarios out to 2100. The chapter also assesses the potential impacts of BECCS on mitigation costs under various scenarios at a global scale. Though previous work has suggested that BECCS can play a crucial role in meeting the global climate‐change mitigation target, uncertainties remain in two main areas: the availability of biomass, which is affected by many factors including availability of land for biomass production and sustainability of bioenergy production including consequences for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In order to assess the importance of these uncertainties, this chapter develops several scenarios by varying the availability of biomass (sustainability of the bioenergy production) and peaking year for GHG emissions under 2 °C and 1.5 °C climate‐change mitigation targets at a global level. Scenario analysis suggests that without BECCS, or other negative emissions technologies, the targets may simply become implausible – certainly 1.5 °C but perhaps also 2 °C

Reducing energy demand: a review of issues, challenges and approaches

Most commentators expect improved energy efficiency and reduced energy demand to provide the dominant contribution to tackling global climate change. But at the global level, the correlation between increased wealth and increased energy consumption is very strong and the impact of policies to reduce energy demand is both limited and contested. Different academic disciplines approach energy demand reduction in different ways: emphasising some mechanisms and neglecting others, being more or less optimistic about the potential for reducing energy demand and providing insights that are more or less useful for policymakers. This article provides an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with energy demand reduction, summarises how this challenge is ‘framed’ by key academic disciplines, indicates how these can provide complementary insights for policymakers and argues that a ‘sociotechnical’ perspective can provide a deeper understanding of the nature of this challenge and the processes through which it can be achieved. The article integrates ideas from the natural sciences, economics, psychology, innovation studies and sociology but does not give equal weight to each. It argues that reducing energy demand will prove more difficult than is commonly assumed and current approaches will be insufficient to deliver the transformation required

A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation

In this paper, a systematic review of academic literature and policy papers since 2008 is undertaken with an aim of identifying the prevalent energy systems models and tools in the UK. A list of all referenced models is presented and the literature is analysed with regards sectoral coverage and technological inclusion, as well as mathematical structure of models. The paper compares available models using an appropriate classification schema, the introduction of which is aimed at making the model landscape more accessible and perspicuous, thereby enhancing the diversity of models within use. The distinct classification presented in this paper comprises three sections, which specify the model purpose and structure, technological detail and mathematical approach. The schema is not designed to be comprehensive, but rather to be a broad classification with pertinent level of information required to differentiate between models. As an example, the UK model landscape is considered and 22 models are classified in three tables, as per the proposed schema

A high-throughput screen against pantothenate synthetase (PanC) identifies 3-biphenyl-4-cyanopyrrole-2-carboxylic acids as a new class of inhibitor with activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The enzyme pantothenate synthetase, PanC, is an attractive drug target in Mycobacterium tuberculosis . It is essential for the in vitro growth of M. tuberculosis and for survival of the bacteria in the mouse model of infection. PanC is absent from mammals. We developed an enzyme-based assay to identify inhibitors of PanC, optimized it for high-throughput screening, and tested a large and diverse library of compounds for activity. Two compounds belonging to the same chemical class of 3-biphenyl-4- cyanopyrrole-2-carboxylic acids had activity against the purified recombinant protein, and also inhibited growth of live M. tuberculosis in manner consistent with PanC inhibition. Thus we have identified a new class of PanC inhibitors with whole cell activity that can be further developed

The third oil price surge - What's different this time?

The period from 2003 to 2008 was marked by an oil price increase comparable to the two oil price crises in the 1970s. This paper looks in detail at the situation of the oil price crises 30 years ago and compares them along various aspects on the demand and supply side with the recent price increase to identify similarities and differences. While both oil price crises in 1973 and 1979/1980 were ultimately caused by supply actions of members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), all three oil price crises were preceded by high demand growth. Other aspects that favoured a high oil price in all three cases were low investments in new oil fields, as a consequence low spare capacity, and a weak US dollar. In addition, the recent oil price surge has been characterised by a high global refinery utilisation and refineries that did not adapt fast enough to the rising demand for lighter oil products. Moreover, broader geopolitical uncertainties, combined with risks associated with the oil trade helped push the oil price into a triple-digit zone. Speculation played only a limited and temporary role in accelerating price movements during the recent price increase.Crude oil Oil price crisis Price influence