Financial contagion of the 2008 crisis: is there any evidence of financial contagion from the US to the Baltic states

The paper aims to investigate the research question whether the US 2008 crisis spilled over contagiously to the Baltic States as small open economies. In order to examine the evidence of financial contagion as a systematic component of financial risks in the case of the Baltic States, we employ several testing methodologies like correlation coefficients based methods adjusting also with possible heteroskedasticity and ARCH-GARCH framework. The results are somewhat mixed. On the one hand, stock returns’ correlations between US and Baltic States increased during crisis times, confirming the financial contagion hypothesis. On the other hand, volatility has not spilled over from US to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, neither have volatility spillovers become stronger after the crisis hit.financial crisis, financial contagion, crisis management, Baltic states

Kinematics and uncertainty relations of a quantum test particle in a curved space-time

A possible model for quantum kinematics of a test particle in a curved space-time is proposed. Every reasonable neighbourhood V_e of a curved space-time can be equipped with a nonassociative binary operation called the geodesic multiplication of space-time points. In the case of the Minkowski space-time, left and right translations of the geodesic multiplication coincide and amount to a rigid shift of the space-time x->x+a. In a curved space-time infinitesimal geodesic right translations can be used to define the (geodesic) momentum operators. The commutation relations of position and momentum operators are taken as the quantum kinematic algebra. As an example, detailed calculations are performed for the space-time of a weak plane gravitational wave. The uncertainty relations following from the commutation rules are derived and their physical meaning is discussed.Comment: 6 pages, LaTeX, talk given in the session ``Quantum Fields in Curved Space'' at the VIII Marcel Grossmann Conference in Jerusalem, Israel, June 199

A Cosmological Model of Holographic Brane Gravity

A cosmological scenario with two branes (A and B) moving in a 5-dimensional bulk is considered. As in the case of ecpyrotic and born-again braneworld models it is possible that the branes collide. The energy-momentum tensor is taken to describe a perfect barotropic fluid on the A-brane and a phenomenological time-dependent "cosmological constant" on the B-brane. The A-brane is identified with our Universe and its cosmological evolution in the approximation of a homogeneous and isotropic brane is analysed. The dynamics of the radion (a scalar field on the brane) contains information about the proper distance between the branes. It is demonstrated that the deSitter type solutions are obtained for late time evolution of the braneworld and accelerative behaviour is anticipated at the present time.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figure