Mitigation factors

The debate over the costs of GHG emission reduction has become more com-plex recently as disagreements over the existence of economic and environ-mental double dividents have been added to discussions over the existence of a negative cost potential. We argue that basic assumptions about economic effi-ciency, the (sub-)optimality of the baseline and the rate of technical change are more important than model structure, and we underline the importance of the timing of decisions for determining the costs. Moreover the use of a single baseline ‘no policy' scenario and several policy intervention scenarios may be fundamentally misleading in the longer term simply because the very idea of a business as usual scenario is deeply problematic. Ultimately the debate turns on political judgments about the desirability of alternative development paths. Copright© 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.Greenhouse gas emissions;Costs of GHG reduction; Mitigation options

Equitable provision of long-term public goods: the role of negotiation mandates

In a one-period model, whether or not individual weights in the welfare function are based on initial endowments dictate who provides public goods. But with long-term public goods, banning wealth redistribution still allows for several equilibriums depending on Parties'willingness to acknowledge changes in negotiating powers over time, and on whether or not they care only for their own descendants. Adaptative and universal mandates lead to far more robust equilibrium. In all cases, a simple rule of thumb for allocating expenditures at first period emerges, independent of both the optimal level of public goods and the second-period distribution of expenditures.Montreal Protocol,Economic Theory&Research,Information Technology,Environmental Economics&Policies,General Technology,Montreal Protocol,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Energy and Environment,Transport and Environment

Thirty-five years of long-run energy forecasting : lessons for climate change policy

This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around the political difficulties surrounding such behavioral transformation. The paper performs a meta-review of long-term energy forecasts since the end of the 1960s in order to put in perspective the controversies around technological optimism about the potential for cheap, large-scale, carbon-free energy production. This retrospective analysis encompasses 116 scenarios conducted over 36 years and analyzes their predictions for a) fossil fuels, b) nuclear energy, and c) renewable energy. The analysis demonstrates how the predicted relative shares of these three types of energy have evolved since 1970, for two cases: a) predicted shares in 2010, which shows how the initial outlooks for the 2000-2010 period have been revised as a function of observed trends; and b) predicted shares for t+30, which shows how these revisions have affected medium-term prospects. The analysis shows a decrease, since 1970, in technological optimism about switching away from fossil fuels; this decrease is unsurprisingly correlated with a decline in modelers’ beliefs in the suitability of nuclear energy. But, after a trend of increasing optimism, a declining trend also characterizes renewable energies in the 1980s and 1990s before a slight revival of technological optimism about renewables in the aftermath of Kyoto.Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy Demand,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases

The Economics of a Lost Deal

This paper examines compromise spaces between competing perspectives on four key climate change issues: costs, level of domestic action, environmental integrity, and developing world involvement. Based on extensive simulations of a model integration tool, SAP12 (Stochastic Assessment of Climate Policies, 12 models), the analysis considers options for fine-tuning the Kyoto Protocol, such as concrete ceilings or levies on carbon imports; restoration payments to be made on excess emissions; credits for sequestration activities in Annex B countries; and others. It shows the critical importance of the baseline against which the performance of each tool has to be assessed in the absence of direct economic penalties for noncompliance. The restoration payment option (also known as a safety valve) emerges as a superior means of addressing the core policy issues, including environmental integrity, and provides a large compromise space between payments of $35 to$100 per ton of carbon.limate negotiations, 2010 carbon markets, uncertainty about abatement costs

The Economics of a Lost Deal : Kyoto - The Hague - Marrakesh

This paper examines prospects for compromise between competing perspectives on four key climate change issues: costs, level of domestic action, nvironmental integrity, and developing world involvement. It focuses on the policy issues stemming from the uncertainty about abatement costs. Based on extensive simulations of a model integration tool, SAP12 (Stochastic Assessment of Climate Policies, 12 models), the analysis considers options for fine-tuning the Kyoto Protocol, such as concrete ceilings or levies on carbon imports; "environmental restoration payments" to be made on excess emissions; and credits for equestration activities in Annex B countries. It demonstrates that the restoration payment (implemented through a safety valve) emerges as a superior means of addressing the cost uncertainty issue. The paper concludes that had this approach been taken at the COP6 climate negotiations, there would have been substantial room for compromise on payments of $35 to$100 per ton of carbon. Examining the Marrakech climate accord, it derives some lessons for attempts at completing Kyoto's unfinished business or at moving on to a new framework.climate negotiations; 2010 carbon markets; uncertainty about abatement costs

Equitable Provision of Long-Term Public GoodsThe role of Negotiation Mandates

We examine the international distribution of expenditures for the provision ofa global, long-term and uncertain public goods from the point of view of abenevolent planner. Even assuming a "no-redistribution" constraint, first periodexpenditures are in general progressive with income, and independent both fromtotal level of action, and from future distribution of damages. However, instatus-quo mandates-where current negotiating powers shape both present andfuture allocation-future distributions of efforts are very unequal, andagreement, if any, is at high risk of instability. An adaptative mandate provesnecessary to provide an acceptable solution.Equitable Provision; Long-Term Public Goods; Negotiation Mandates

Why economic growth dynamics matter inassessing climate change damages: illustrationon extreme events

Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socio- economic systems interact and it is likely that climate change will modify their probability distributions. The long-term growth models used in climate change as- sessments, however, cannot capture the effects of such short-term shocks. To inves- tigate this issue, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events. In the model, dynamic processes multiply the extreme event direct costs by a factor 20. Half of this increase comes from short-term processes, that long-term growth models cannot capture. The model exhibits also a bifurcation in GDP losses: for a given distribution of extremes, there is a value of the ability to fund reconstruction below which GDP losses increases dramatically. This bifurcation may partly explain why some poor countries that experience repeated natural disasters cannot develop. It also shows that changes in the distribution of extremes may entail significant GDP losses and that climate change may force a specific adaptation of the economic organization. These results show that averaging short-term processes like extreme events over the yearly time step of a long-term growth model can lead to inaccurately low assessments of the climate change damages.Dynamics; Extreme events; Economic impacts; Climate Change

A world without farmers? Food production, inclusive development and ecology: Historical Evidences for a New Deal

This paper questions the perspective of a "world without agriculture" which underpins the economic paradigm of "structural transformation" and "modern growth". It does so by recomposing worldwide land and labour productivity trends in caloric terms from 1961 to 2007 and by providing an heuristic model showing that the "Lewis Path" to prosperity is only one out of four possible pathways. It shows that more than half of the world population is rather embarked in a "Lewis Trap" where farmers are increasingly numerous and relatively poorer. It highlights how land scarcity and insufficient job opportunities outside agriculture prevent them to increase their labour productivity and incomes with motorized machineries. The emerging paradigm of "ecological intensification" might contribute to overcome the current deadlocks by redirecting worldwide R&D towards small-scale knowledge-intensive and context-specific agricultures overlapping the manufacture and service sectors. (Résumé d'auteur

Policy framework and systems management of global climate change

Climate change is representative of a general class of environmental issues where decisions have to be taken under controversies. The policy framework for these kinds of decisions is defined by three important traits: scientific ignorance, mediatization and the need for innovation. Scientific ignorance is an issue here because decisions must be taken before the end of scientific controversies about the predictability of future climate. Mediatization is key because agents can't have a sensible experience of the global climate change, and some interest-holders (future generations, distant countries) cannot participate directly in the decision. Third, the need for innovation is crucial because today's technology offers the only alternative between fossil fuels and nuclear power as a main primary energy source.In the case of climate change, the institutional context is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The making of global environmental policy is framed not upon a hypothetical code of international law (there is no such a thing), but upon a body of doctrine arising from consistent reference to a given set of principles. The key principles are sustainability (satisfying the need of present generations without preventing future generations to satisfy theirs), precaution (ignorance is not an excuse for inaction), the common but differentiated responsibility (developed countries take the lead in action against climate change), and economic efficiency (which lead to prefer flexible instruments over blind regulation).Given the scientific controversies and the fuzziness of guiding principles, no clear-cut demonstration could justify the choice of a theoretically optimum course of action, even in the short term. Historically, climate negotiations can be seen as an oscillation between two regulation modes. On one side is coordinated policies and measures, where countries adopt an uniform international rate of carbon tax. On the other side is emission trading, where a defined emission reduction target is allocated to each country.changement climatique; Protocole de Kyoto