Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population

This is an epidemiological SIRV model based study that is de- signed to analyze the impact of vaccination in containing infection spread, in a 4-tiered population compartment comprised of susceptible, infected, recov- ered and vaccinated agents. While many models assume a lifelong protection through vaccination, we focus on the impact of waning immunization due to conversion of vaccinated and recovered agents back to susceptible ones. Two asymptotic states exist, the \disease-free equilibrium" and the \endemic equi- librium" and we express the transitions between these states as function of the vaccination and conversion rates and using the basic reproduction number. We nd that the vaccination of newborns and adults have dierent consequences on controlling an epidemic. Also, a decaying disease protection within the re- covered sub-population is not sucient to trigger an epidemic on the linear level. We perform simulations for a parameter set modelling a disease with waning immunization like pertussis. For a diusively coupled population, a transition to the endemic state can proceed via the propagation of a traveling infection wave, described successfully within a Fisher-Kolmogorov framework

The Simmel effect and babies names

Simulations of the Simmel effect are performed for agents in a scale-free social network. The social hierarchy of an agent is determined by the degree of her node. Particular features, once selected by a highly connected agent, became common in lower class but soon fall out of fashion and extinct. Numerical results reflect the dynamics of frequency of American babies names in 1880-2011.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure

Banking risk as an epidemiological model: an optimal control approach

The process of contagiousness spread modelling is well-known in epidemiology. However, the application of spread modelling to banking market is quite recent. In this work, we present a system of ordinary differential equations, simulating data from the largest European banks. Then, an optimal control problem is formulated in order to study the impact of a possible measure of the Central Bank in the economy. The proposed approach enables qualitative specifications of contagion in banking obtainment and an adequate analysis and prognosis within the financial sector development and macroeconomy as a whole. We show that our model describes well the reality of the largest European banks. Simulations were done using MATLAB and BOCOP optimal control solver, and the main results are taken for three distinct scenarios.publishe

Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens

Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various “Ross-Macdonald” mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955–1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention

Epidemic centrality - is there an underestimated epidemic impact of network peripheral nodes?

In the study of disease spreading on empirical complex networks in SIR model, initially infected nodes can be ranked according to some measure of their epidemic impact. The highest ranked nodes, also referred to as "superspreaders", are associated to dominant epidemic risks and therefore deserve special attention. In simulations on studied empirical complex networks, it is shown that the ranking depends on the dynamical regime of the disease spreading. A possible mechanism leading to this dependence is illustrated in an analytically tractable example. In systems where the allocation of resources to counter disease spreading to individual nodes is based on their ranking, the dynamical regime of disease spreading is frequently not known before the outbreak of the disease. Therefore, we introduce a quantity called epidemic centrality as an average over all relevant regimes of disease spreading as a basis of the ranking. A recently introduced concept of phase diagram of epidemic spreading is used as a framework in which several types of averaging are studied. The epidemic centrality is compared to structural properties of nodes such as node degree, k-cores and betweenness. There is a growing trend of epidemic centrality with degree and k-cores values, but the variation of epidemic centrality is much smaller than the variation of degree or k-cores value. It is found that the epidemic centrality of the structurally peripheral nodes is of the same order of magnitude as the epidemic centrality of the structurally central nodes. The implications of these findings for the distributions of resources to counter disease spreading are discussed

The mandible and dentition of Borealestes serendipitus (Docodonta) from the Middle Jurassic of Skye, Scotland

The Middle Jurassic docodont Borealestes serendipitus was the first Mesozoic mammal found in Scotland over 40 years ago. Its affinities and morphology have remained poorly understood. Although multiple dentary fragments and isolated teeth have been recovered from Scotland and England, they have not yet been described in sufficient detail. We report new, more complete specimens collected during recent field work on Skye, Scotland, combined with previously collected material. This includes upper and lower dentition and an almost complete right dentary. We present an updated description and diagnosis of the genus Borealestes, based on high-resolution micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) and synchrotron scans. We identify seven key features that distinguish Borealestes from other docodonts, including a pronounced a–c crest, absence of the a–g crest on cusp a, an anterior fovea at the buccolingual midpoint of the upper molar, and the convergence of the Meckel’s groove with the ventral margin of the mandible. We also present a revised diagnosis for the second species, B. mussettae. Our phylogenetic analysis supports a clade formed by Borealestes, Haldanodon, Docofossor, and Docodon. Ontogenetic variation in the mandibular morphology of Borealestes is similar to that seen in Docodon and Haldanodon, with the delayed emergence of the ultimate lower molar, the shift of the last molar to the front of the coronoid process, and a posterior shift of the Meckel’s sulcus in successively older individuals. This supports a distinctive growth pattern in the clade including Borealestes and Docodon, one that may be present in Docodonta as a whole

Exact equations for SIR epidemics on tree graphs

We consider Markovian susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics on time-invariant weighted contact networks where the infection and removal processes are Poisson and where network links may be directed or undirected. We prove that a particular pair-based moment closure representation generates the expected infectious time series for networks with no cycles in the underlying graph. Moreover, this “deterministic” representation of the expected behaviour of a complex heterogeneous and finite Markovian system is straightforward to evaluate numerically

Hydrodynamics of fossil fishes

Fromtheir earliest origins, fishes have developed a suite of adaptations for locomotion in water, which determine performance and ultimately fitness. Even without data from behaviour, soft tissue and extant relatives, it is possible to infer a wealth of palaeobiological and palaeoecological information. As in extant species, aspects of gross morphology such as streamlining, fin position and tail type are optimized even in the earliest fishes, indicating similar life strategies have been present throughout their evolutionary history. As hydrodynamical studies become more sophisticated, increasingly complex fluid movement can be modelled, including vortex formation and boundary layer control. Drag-reducing riblets ornamenting the scales of fast-moving sharks have been subjected to particularly intense research, but this has not been extended to extinct forms. Riblets are a convergent adaptation seen in many Palaeozoic fishes, and probably served a similar hydrodynamic purpose. Conversely, structures which appear to increase skin friction may act as turbulisors, reducing overall dragwhile serving a protective function. Here,we examine the diverse adaptions that contribute to drag reduction in modern fishes and review the few attempts to elucidate the hydrodynamics of extinct forms