Understanding and modelling wildfire regimes: An ecological perspective

© 2021 The Author(s).Recent extreme wildfire seasons in several regions have been associated with exceptionally hot, dry conditions, made more probable by climate change. Much research has focused on extreme fire weather and its drivers, but natural wildfire regimes—and their interactions with human activities—are far from being comprehensively understood. There is a lack of clarity about the 'causes' of wildfire, and about how ecosystems could be managed for the co-existence of wildfire and people. We present evidence supporting an ecosystem-centred framework for improved understanding and modelling of wildfire. Wildfire has a long geological history and is a pervasive natural process in contemporary plant communities. In some biomes, wildfire would be more frequent without human settlement; in others they would be unchanged or less frequent. A world without fire would have greater forest cover, especially in present-day savannas. Many species would be missing, because fire regimes have co-evolved with plant traits that resist, adapt to or promote wildfire. Certain plant traits are favoured by different fire frequencies, and may be missing in ecosystems that are normally fire-free. For example, post-fire resprouting is more common among woody plants in high-frequency fire regimes than where fire is infrequent. The impact of habitat fragmentation on wildfire crucially depends on whether the ecosystem is fire-adapted. In normally fire-free ecosystems, fragmentation facilitates wildfire starts and is detrimental to biodiversity. In fire-adapted ecosystems, fragmentation inhibits fires from spreading and fire suppression is detrimental to biodiversity. This interpretation explains observed, counterintuitive patterns of spatial correlation between wildfire and potential ignition sources. Lightning correlates positively with burnt area only in open ecosystems with frequent fire. Human population correlates positively with burnt area only in densely forested regions. Models for vegetation-fire interactions must be informed by insights from fire ecology to make credible future projections in a changing climate.We gratefully acknowledge support from the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, who organized the virtual mini-workshop which initiated the writing of this paper. RKN is supported by the Leverhulme Centre. SPH and YS acknowledge support from the ERC-funded project GC2.0 (Global Change 2.0: Unlocking the past for a clearer future, Grant Number 694481). ICP, KJB and ND acknowledge support from the ERC-funded project REALM (Re-inventing Ecosystem And Land-surface Models, Grant Number 787203). JCH acknowledges funding from the ERC project SCATAPNUT (Grant Number 681885). This work is a contribution to the LEMONTREE (Land Ecosystem Models based On New Theory, obseRvations and ExperimEnts) project, funded through the generosity of Eric and Wendy Schmidt by recommendation of the Schmidt Futures program (SPH, YS and ICP)

Thermal limits of leaf metabolism across biomes

High-temperature tolerance in plants is important in a warming world, with extreme heat waves predicted to increase in frequency and duration, potentially leading to lethal heating of leaves. Global patterns of high-temperature tolerance are documented in animals, but generally not in plants, limiting our ability to assess risks associated with climate warming. To assess whether there are global patterns in high-temperature tolerance of leaf metabolism, we quantified Tcrit (high temperature where minimal chlorophyll a fluorescence rises rapidly and thus photosystem II is disrupted) and Tmax (temperature where leaf respiration in darkness is maximal, beyond which respiratory function rapidly declines) in upper canopy leaves of 218 plant species spanning seven biomes. Mean site-based Tcrit values ranged from 41.5 °C in the Alaskan arctic to 50.8 °C in lowland tropical rainforests of Peruvian Amazon. For Tmax, the equivalent values were 51.0 and 60.6 °C in the Arctic and Amazon, respectively. Tcrit and Tmax followed similar biogeographic patterns, increasing linearly (˜8 °C) from polar to equatorial regions. Such increases in high-temperature tolerance are much less than expected based on the 20 °C span in high-temperature extremes across the globe. Moreover, with only modest high-temperature tolerance despite high summer temperature extremes, species in mid-latitude (~20-50°) regions have the narrowest thermal safety margins in upper canopy leaves; these regions are at the greatest risk of damage due to extreme heat-wave events, especially under conditions when leaf temperatures are further elevated by a lack of transpirational cooling. Using predicted heat-wave events for 2050 and accounting for possible thermal acclimation of Tcrit and Tmax, we also found that these safety margins could shrink in a warmer world, as rising temperatures are likely to exceed thermal tolerance limits. Thus, increasing numbers of species in many biomes may be at risk as heat-wave events become more severe with climate change

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they mak

Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain’s hydrology

There is a no lack of significant open questions in the field of hydrology. How will hydrological connectivity between freshwater bodies be altered by future human alterations to the hydrological cycle? Where does water go when it rains? Or what is the future space-time variability of flood and drought events? However, the answers to these questions will vary with location due to the specific and often poorly understood local boundary conditions and system properties that control the functional behaviour of a catchment or any other hydrologic control volume. We suggest that an open, shared and evolving perceptual model of a region’s hydrology is critical to tailor our science questions, as it would be for any other study domain from the plot to the continental scale. In this opinion piece, we begin to discuss the elements of and point out some knowledge gaps in the perceptual model of the terrestrial water cycle of Great Britain. We discuss six major knowledge gaps and propose four key ways to reduce them. While the specific knowledge gaps in our perceptual model do not necessarily transfer to other places, we believe that the development of such perceptual models should be at the core of the debate for all hydrologic communities, and we encourage others to have a similar debate for their hydrologic domain

Preconceptional Folate Supplementation and the Risk of Spontaneous Preterm Birth: A Cohort Study

In an analysis of a cohort of pregnant women, Radek Bukowski and colleagues describe an association between taking folic acid supplements and a reduction in the risk of preterm birth

Convergence in the temperature response of leaf respiration across biomes and plant functional types

Plant respiration constitutes a massive carbon flux to the atmosphere, and a major control on the evolution of the global carbon cycle. It therefore has the potential to modulate levels of climate change due to the human burning of fossil fuels. Neither current physiological nor terrestrial biosphere models adequately describe its short-term temperature response, and even minor differences in the shape of the response curve can significantly impact estimates of ecosystem carbon release and/or storage. Given this, it is critical to establish whether there are predictable patterns in the shape of the respiration–temperature response curve, and thus in the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of respiration across the globe. Analyzing measurements in a comprehensive database for 231 species spanning 7 biomes, we demonstrate that temperature-dependent increases in leaf respiration do not follow a commonly used exponential function. Instead, we find a decelerating function as leaves warm, reflecting a declining sensitivity to higher temperatures that is remarkably uniform across all biomes and plant functional types. Such convergence in the temperature sensitivity of leaf respiration suggests that there are universally applicable controls on the temperature response of plant energy metabolism, such that a single new function can predict the temperature dependence of leaf respiration for global vegetation. This simple function enables straightforward description of plant respiration in the land-surface components of coupled earth system models. Our cross-biome analyses shows significant implications for such fluxes in cold climates, generally projecting lower values compared with previous estimates

Climate change and water in the UK : past changes and future prospects: a climate change report card for water: Working technical paper

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperatures and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to climate change, but over the last fifty years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and the water available for use by people. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. Water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms. Water demand may increase in response to higher summer temperatures, placing additional pressure on water resources. These changes affect many parts of everyday life, emphasising the importance of long-term adaptation that takes these possible changes into account

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

Repeated nebulisation of non-viral CFTR gene therapy in patients with cystic fibrosis:a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2b trial

Background: Lung delivery of plasmid DNA encoding the CFTR gene complexed with a cationic liposome is a potential treatment option for patients with cystic fibrosis. We aimed to assess the efficacy of non-viral CFTR gene therapy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Methods: We did this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2b trial in two cystic fibrosis centres with patients recruited from 18 sites in the UK. Patients (aged ≥12 years) with a forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) of 50–90% predicted and any combination of CFTR mutations, were randomly assigned, via a computer-based randomisation system, to receive 5 mL of either nebulised pGM169/GL67A gene–liposome complex or 0·9% saline (placebo) every 28 days (plus or minus 5 days) for 1 year. Randomisation was stratified by % predicted FEV1 (<70 vs ≥70%), age (<18 vs ≥18 years), inclusion in the mechanistic substudy, and dosing site (London or Edinburgh). Participants and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was the relative change in % predicted FEV1. The primary analysis was per protocol. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01621867. Findings: Between June 12, 2012, and June 24, 2013, we randomly assigned 140 patients to receive placebo (n=62) or pGM169/GL67A (n=78), of whom 116 (83%) patients comprised the per-protocol population. We noted a significant, albeit modest, treatment effect in the pGM169/GL67A group versus placebo at 12 months' follow-up (3·7%, 95% CI 0·1–7·3; p=0·046). This outcome was associated with a stabilisation of lung function in the pGM169/GL67A group compared with a decline in the placebo group. We recorded no significant difference in treatment-attributable adverse events between groups. Interpretation: Monthly application of the pGM169/GL67A gene therapy formulation was associated with a significant, albeit modest, benefit in FEV1 compared with placebo at 1 year, indicating a stabilisation of lung function in the treatment group. Further improvements in efficacy and consistency of response to the current formulation are needed before gene therapy is suitable for clinical care; however, our findings should also encourage the rapid introduction of more potent gene transfer vectors into early phase trials

Global variability in leaf respiration in relation to climate, plant functional types and leaf traits

• Leaf dark respiration (Rdark) is an important yet poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle. Given this, we analyzed a new global database of Rdark and associated leaf traits. • Data for 899 species were compiled from 100 sites (from the Arctic to the tropics). Several woody and nonwoody plant functional types (PFTs) were represented. Mixed-effects models were used to disentangle sources of variation in Rdark. • Area-based Rdark at the prevailing average daily growth temperature (T) of each site increased only twofold from the Arctic to the tropics, despite a 20°C increase in growing T (8–28°C). By contrast, Rdark at a standard T (25°C, Rdark25) was threefold higher in the Arctic than in the tropics, and twofold higher at arid than at mesic sites. Species and PFTs at cold sites exhibited higher Rdark25 at a given photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax25) or leaf nitrogen concentration ([N]) than species at warmer sites. Rdark25 values at any given Vcmax25 or [N] were higher in herbs than in woody plants. • The results highlight variation in Rdark among species and across global gradients in T and aridity. In addition to their ecological significance, the results provide a framework for improving representation of Rdark in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and associated land-surface components of Earth system models (ESMs)