The Cost of Simplifying Air Travel When Modeling Disease Spread

BACKGROUND: Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed

Modulating attentional load affects numerosity estimation: evidence against a pre-attentive subitizing mechanism

Traditionally, the visual enumeration of a small number of items (1 to about 4), referred to as subitizing, has been thought of as a parallel and pre-attentive process and functionally different from the serial attentive enumeration of larger numerosities. We tested this hypothesis by employing a dual task paradigm that systematically manipulated the attentional resources available to an enumeration task. Enumeration accuracy for small numerosities was severely decreased as more attentional resources were taken away from the numerical task, challenging the traditionally held notion of subitizing as a pre-attentive, capacity-independent process. Judgement of larger numerosities was also affected by dual task conditions and attentional load. These results challenge the proposal that small numerosities are enumerated by a mechanism separate from large numerosities and support the idea of a single, attention-demanding enumeration mechanism

An international comparative study of blood pressure in populations of European vs. African descent

Background: The consistent finding of higher prevalence of hypertension in US blacks compared to whites has led to speculation that African-origin populations are particularly susceptible to this condition. Large surveys now provide new information on this issue. Methods: Using a standardized analysis strategy we examined prevalence estimates for 8 white and 3 black populations (N = 85,000 participants). Results: The range in hypertension prevalence was from 27 to 55% for whites and 14 to 44% for blacks. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that not only is there a wide variation in hypertension prevalence among both racial groups, the rates among blacks are not unusually high when viewed internationally. These data suggest that the impact of environmental factors among both populations may have been under-appreciated

Identification of complex health interventions suitable for evaluation: development and validation of the 8-step scoping framework

Background: There is extensive literature on the methodology of evaluation research and the development and evaluation of complex interventions but little guidance on the formative stages before evaluation and how to work with partner organizations that wish to have their provision evaluated. It is important to be able to identify suitable projects for evaluation from a range of provision and describe the steps required, often with academic institutions working in partnership with external organizations, in order to set up an evaluation. However, research evaluating programs or interventions rarely discusses these stages. Objective: This study aimed to extend work on evaluability assessment and pre-evaluation planning by proposing an 8-Step Scoping Framework to enable the appraisal of multiple programs in order to identify interventions suitable for evaluation. We aimed to add to the literature on evaluability assessment and more recent evaluation guidance by describing the processes involved in working with partner organizations. Methods: This paper documents the steps required to identify multiple complex interventions suitable for process and outcome evaluation. The steps were developed using an iterative approach by working alongside staff in a local government organization, to build an evidence base to demonstrate which interventions improve children’s outcomes. The process of identifying suitable programs for evaluation, thereby establishing the pre-evaluation steps, was tested using all Flying Start provision. Results: The 8-Step Scoping Framework was described using the example of the local government organization Flying Start to illustrate how each step contributes to finding projects suitable for process and outcome evaluation: (1) formulating overarching key questions that encompass all programs offered by an organization, (2) gaining an in-depth understanding of the work and provision of an organization and engaging staff, (3) completing a data template per project/program offered, (4) assessing the robustness/validity of data across all programs, (5) deciding on projects suitable for evaluation and those requiring additional data, (6) negotiating with chosen project leads, both within and outside the organization, (7) developing individual project evaluation protocols, and (8) applying for ethical approval from the university and partner organization. Conclusions: This paper describes the processes involved in identifying suitable projects for evaluation. It adds to the existing literature on the assessment of specific programs suitable for evaluation and guidance for conducting evaluations by establishing the formative steps required to identify suitable programs from a range of provision. This scoping framework particularly relates to academic partners and organizations tasked with delivering evidence-based services designed to meet local needs. The steps identified have been described in the context of early years provision but can be applied to a range of community-based evaluations, or more generally, to cases where an academic partner is working with external stakeholders to identify projects suitable for academic evaluation

A semi-parametric approach to estimate risk functions associated with multi-dimensional exposure profiles: application to smoking and lung cancer

A common characteristic of environmental epidemiology is the multi-dimensional aspect of exposure patterns, frequently reduced to a cumulative exposure for simplicity of analysis. By adopting a flexible Bayesian clustering approach, we explore the risk function linking exposure history to disease. This approach is applied here to study the relationship between different smoking characteristics and lung cancer in the framework of a population based case control study

Oral chondroitin sulfate and prebiotics for the treatment of canine Inflammatory Bowel Disease: a randomized, controlled clinical trial

BACKGROUND Canine inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic enteropathy of unknown etiology, although microbiome dysbiosis, genetic susceptibility, and dietary and/or environmental factors are hypothesized to be involved in its pathogenesis. Since some of the current therapies are associated with severe side effects, novel therapeutic modalities are needed. A new oral supplement for long-term management of canine IBD containing chondroitin sulfate (CS) and prebiotics (resistant starch, β-glucans and mannaoligosaccharides) was developed to target intestinal inflammation and oxidative stress, and restore normobiosis, without exhibiting any side effects. This double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in dogs with IBD aims to evaluate the effects of 180 days administration of this supplement together with a hydrolyzed diet on clinical signs, intestinal histology, gut microbiota, and serum biomarkers of inflammation and oxidative stress. RESULTS Twenty-seven client-owned biopsy-confirmed IBD dogs were included in the study, switched to the same hydrolyzed diet and classified into one of two groups: supplement and placebo. Initially, there were no significant differences between groups (p > 0.05) for any of the studied parameters. Final data analysis (supplement: n = 9; placebo: n = 10) showed a significant decrease in canine IBD activity index (CIBDAI) score in both groups after treatment (p < 0.001). After treatment, a significant decrease (1.53-fold; p < 0.01) in histologic score was seen only in the supplement group. When groups were compared, the supplement group showed significantly higher serum cholesterol (p < 0.05) and paraoxonase-1 (PON1) levels after 60 days of treatment (p < 0.01), and the placebo group showed significantly reduced serum total antioxidant capacity (TAC) levels after 120 days (p < 0.05). No significant differences were found between groups at any time point for CIBDAI, WSAVA histologic score and fecal microbiota evaluated by PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). No side effects were reported in any group. CONCLUSIONS The combined administration of the supplement with hydrolyzed diet over 180 days was safe and induced improvements in selected serum biomarkers, possibly suggesting a reduction in disease activity. This study was likely underpowered, therefore larger studies are warranted in order to demonstrate a supplemental effect to dietary treatment of this supplement on intestinal histology and CIBDAI

A Broken Trust: Lessons from the Vaccine–Autism Wars: Researchers long ago rejected the theory that vaccines cause autism, yet many parents don't believe them. Can scientists bridge the gap between evidence and doubt?

Researchers long ago rejected the theory that vaccines cause autism, yet many parents don't believe them. Can scientists bridge the gap between evidence and doubt