173 research outputs found

    Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae

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    Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case withStreptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.Peer reviewe

    Identification and Selection of Cases and Controls in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health Project

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    Methods for the identification and selection of patients (cases) with severe or very severe pneumonia and controls for the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) project were needed. Issues considered include eligibility criteria and sampling strategies, whether to enroll hospital or community controls, whether to exclude controls with upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) or nonsevere pneumonia, and matching criteria, among others. PERCH ultimately decided to enroll community controls and an additional human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected control group at high HIV-prevalence sites matched on age and enrollment date of cases; controls with symptoms of URTI or nonsevere pneumonia will not be excluded. Systematic sampling of cases (when necessary) and random sampling of controls will be implemented. For each issue, we present the options that were considered, the advantages and disadvantages of each, the rationale for the methods selected for PERCH, and remaining implications and limitations

    Eff ectiveness of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against invasive pneumococcal disease in South African children: a case-control study

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    Background The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was designed to include disease-causing serotypes that are important in low-income and middle-income countries. Vaccine eff ectiveness estimates are scarce in these settings. South Africa replaced PCV7 with PCV13 in 2011 using a 2 + 1 schedule. We aimed to assess the eff ectiveness of two or more doses of PCV13 against invasive pneumococcal disease in children with HIV infection and in those not infected with HIV. Methods Cases of invasive pneumococcal disease in children aged 5 years or younger were identifi ed through national laboratory-based surveillance. Isolates were serotyped with the Quellung reaction or PCR. We sought in-hospital controls for every case, matched for age, HIV status, and study site. We aimed to enrol four controls for every case not infected with HIV and six controls for every case with HIV infection (case-control sets). With conditional logistic regression, we calculated vaccine eff ectiveness as a percentage, with the equation 1 – [adjusted odds ratio for vaccination] × 100. We included data from an earlier investigation of PCV7 to assess vaccine eff ectiveness in children exposed to but not infected with HIV and in malnourished children not infected with HIV. Findings Between January, 2012, and December, 2014, we enrolled children aged 16 weeks or older to our study: 240 were cases not infected with HIV, 75 were cases with HIV infection, 1118 were controls not infected with HIV, and 283 were controls with HIV infection. The eff ectiveness of two or more doses of PCV13 against PCV13-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease was 85% (95% CI 37 to 96) among 11 case-control sets of children not infected with HIV and 91% (–35 to 100) among three case-control sets of children with HIV infection. PCV13 eff ectiveness among 26 case-control sets of children not infected with HIV was 52% (95% CI –12 to 79) against all-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease and 94% (44 to 100) for serotype 19A. Vaccine eff ectiveness against PCV7-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease was 87% (95% CI 38 to 97) in children exposed to HIV but uninfected and 90% (53 to 98) in malnourished children not infected with HIV. Interpretation Our results indicate that PCV13 in a 2 + 1 schedule is eff ective for preventing vaccine-type pneumococcal infections in young children not infected with HIV, including those who are malnourished or who have been exposed to HIV. Although the point estimate for PCV13 vaccine eff ectiveness in children infected with HIV was high, it did not reach signifi cance, possibly because of the small sample size. These fi ndings support recommendations for widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in low-income and middle-income countries

    The Definition of Pneumonia, the Assessment of Severity, and Clinical Standardization in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health Study

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    To develop a case definition for the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) project, we sought a widely acceptable classification that was linked to existing pneumonia research and focused on very severe cases. We began with the World Health Organization’s classification of severe/very severe pneumonia and refined it through literature reviews and a 2-stage process of expert consultation. PERCH will study hospitalized children, aged 1–59 months, with pneumonia who present with cough or difficulty breathing and have either severe pneumonia (lower chest wall indrawing) or very severe pneumonia (central cyanosis, difficulty breastfeeding/drinking, vomiting everything, convulsions, lethargy, unconsciousness, or head nodding). It will exclude patients with recent hospitalization and children with wheeze whose indrawing resolves after bronchodilator therapy. The PERCH investigators agreed upon standard interpretations of the symptoms and signs. These will be maintained by a clinical standardization monitor who conducts repeated instruction at each site and by recurrent local training and testing

    The Incremental Value of Repeated Induced Sputum and Gastric Aspirate Samples for the Diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Young Children With Acute Community-Acquired Pneumonia

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    Background. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) contributes to the pathogenesis of childhood acute community-acquired pneumonia in settings with a high tuberculosis burden. The incremental value of a repeated induced sputum (IS) sample, compared with a single IS or gastric aspirate (GA) sample, is not well known. Methods. Two IS samples were obtained for Mtb culture from children enrolled as cases in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study in South Africa. Nonstudy attending physicians requested GA if pulmonary tuberculosis was clinically suspected. We compared the Mtb yield of 2 IS samples to that of 1 IS sample and GA samples. Results . Twenty-seven (3.0%) culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases were identified among 906 children investigated with IS and GA samples for Mtb. Results from 2 IS samples were available for 719 children (79.4%). Of 12 culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases identified among children with ≥2 IS samples, 4 (33.3%) were negative at the first IS sample. In head-to-head comparisons among children with both GA and IS samples collected, the yield of 1 GA sample (8 of 427; 1.9%) was similar to that of 1 IS sample (5 of 427, 1.2%), and the yield of 2 GA samples (10 of 300; 3.3%) was similar to that of 2 IS samples (5 of 300; 1.7%). IS samples identified 8 (42.1%) of the 19 culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases that were identified through submission of IS and GA samples. Conclusions. A single IS sample underestimated the presence of Mtb in children hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia. Detection of Mtb is enhanced by combining 2 IS with GA sample collections in young children with acute severe pneumonia

    Carrying out research across the arts and humanities and social sciences: developing the methodology for Dementia and Imagination

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    This paper analyses how the methodological approach for a major Arts and Humanities Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council-funded project entitled Dementia and Imagination1 was formulated. This multidisciplinary project brings together the arts and humanities with the social sciences with their different epistemological philosophies and subsequent understandings of research methods. The main objective was to determine how visual arts activities may change, sustain and catalyse community cultures, beliefs, attitudes and behaviours to create dementia-friendly communities. This project involves 6 different UK universities, 14 researchers, 10 formal partners, 7 project artists, 3 research artists and a large number of civil society organisations. The analysis presents a series of themes that have been identified as influencing the approach taken to develop methods which aimed to speak to different audiences in the social sciences, arts and humanities, policy/practice and public domains. It is concluded that a research project of this type needs to embrace a wide variety of epistemological positions if it is to successfully achieve its objectives. This paper contributes to knowledge about how the methodology of large-scale multidisciplinary projects may be constructed which will be of value to those building research consortia across different universities and between universities and community partners. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
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