Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature

Combining fish and benthic communities into multiple regimes reveals complex reef dynamics

Abstract Coral reefs worldwide face an uncertain future with many reefs reported to transition from being dominated by corals to macroalgae. However, given the complexity and diversity of the ecosystem, research on how regimes vary spatially and temporally is needed. Reef regimes are most often characterised by their benthic components; however, complex dynamics are associated with losses and gains in both fish and benthic assemblages. To capture this complexity, we synthesised 3,345 surveys from Hawai‘i to define reef regimes in terms of both fish and benthic assemblages. Model-based clustering revealed five distinct regimes that varied ecologically, and were spatially heterogeneous by island, depth and exposure. We identified a regime characteristic of a degraded state with low coral cover and fish biomass, one that had low coral but high fish biomass, as well as three other regimes that varied significantly in their ecology but were previously considered a single coral dominated regime. Analyses of time series data reflected complex system dynamics, with multiple transitions among regimes that were a function of both local and global stressors. Coupling fish and benthic communities into reef regimes to capture complex dynamics holds promise for monitoring reef change and guiding ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

Mediation and longitudinal analysis to interpret the association between clozapine pharmacokinetics, pharmacogenomics, and absolute neutrophil count

Clozapine is effective at reducing symptoms of treatment-resistant schizophrenia, but it can also induce several adverse outcomes including neutropenia and agranulocytosis. We used linear mixed-effect models and structural equation modelling to determine whether pharmacokinetic and genetic variables influence absolute neutrophil count in a longitudinal UK-based sample of clozapine users not currently experiencing neutropenia (N = 811). Increased daily clozapine dose was associated with elevated neutrophil count, amounting to a 133 cells/mm3 rise per standard deviation increase in clozapine dose. One-third of the total effect of clozapine dose was mediated by plasma clozapine and norclozapine levels, which themselves demonstrated opposing, independent associations with absolute neutrophil count. Finally, CYP1A2 pharmacogenomic activity score was associated with absolute neutrophil count, supporting lower neutrophil levels in CYP1A2 poor metabolisers during clozapine use. This information may facilitate identifying at-risk patients and then introducing preventative interventions or individualised pharmacovigilance procedures to help mitigate these adverse haematological reactions

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the \u27business as usual\u27 climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5)8 representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness

The handbook for standardized field and laboratory measurements in terrestrial climate change experiments and observational studies (ClimEx)

Climate change is a world-wide threat to biodiversity and ecosystem structure, functioning and services. To understand the underlying drivers and mechanisms, and to predict the consequences for nature and people, we urgently need better understanding of the direction and magnitude of climate change impacts across the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. An increasing number of climate change studies are creating new opportunities for meaningful and high-quality generalizations and improved process understanding. However, significant challenges exist related to data availability and/or compatibility across studies, compromising opportunities for data re-use, synthesis and upscaling. Many of these challenges relate to a lack of an established 'best practice' for measuring key impacts and responses. This restrains our current understanding of complex processes and mechanisms in terrestrial ecosystems related to climate change. To overcome these challenges, we collected best-practice methods emerging from major ecological research networks and experiments, as synthesized by 115 experts from across a wide range of scientific disciplines. Our handbook contains guidance on the selection of response variables for different purposes, protocols for standardized measurements of 66 such response variables and advice on data management. Specifically, we recommend a minimum subset of variables that should be collected in all climate change studies to allow data re-use and synthesis, and give guidance on additional variables critical for different types of synthesis and upscaling. The goal of this community effort is to facilitate awareness of the importance and broader application of standardized methods to promote data re-use, availability, compatibility and transparency. We envision improved research practices that will increase returns on investments in individual research projects, facilitate second-order research outputs and create opportunities for collaboration across scientific communities. Ultimately, this should significantly improve the quality and impact of the science, which is required to fulfil society's needs in a changing world.Peer reviewe

A novel piggybac transposon inducible expression system identifies a role for akt signalling in primordial germ cell migration

In this work, we describe a single piggyBac transposon system containing both a tet-activator and a doxycycline-inducible expression cassette. We demonstrate that a gene product can be conditionally expressed from the integrated transposon and a second gene can be simultaneously targeted by a short hairpin RNA contained within the transposon, both in vivo and in mammalian and avian cell lines. We applied this system to stably modify chicken primordial germ cell (PGC) lines in vitro and induce a reporter gene at specific developmental stages after injection of the transposon-modified germ cells into chicken embryos. We used this vector to express a constitutively-active AKT molecule during PGC migration to the forming gonad. We found that PGC migration was retarded and cells could not colonise the forming gonad. Correct levels of AKT activation are thus essential for germ cell migration during early embryonic development

Genomic stratification of clozapine prescription patterns using schizophrenia polygenic scores

Background Treatment-resistant schizophrenia affects approximately 30% of individuals with the disorder. Clozapine is the medication of choice in treatment-resistant schizophrenia, but optimizing administration and dose titration is complex. The identification of factors influencing clozapine prescription and response, including genetics, is of interest in a precision psychiatry framework. Methods We used linear regression models accounting for demographic, pharmacological, and clinical covariates to determine whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) for schizophrenia would be associated with the highest dose recorded during clozapine treatment. Analyses were performed across 2 independent multiancestry samples of individuals from a UK patient monitoring system, CLOZUK2 (n = 3133) and CLOZUK3 (n = 909), and a European sample from a Norwegian therapeutic drug monitoring service (n = 417). In a secondary analysis merging both UK cohorts, logistic regression models were used to estimate the relationship between schizophrenia PRSs and clozapine doses classified as low, standard, or high. Results After controlling for relevant covariates, the schizophrenia PRS was correlated with the highest clozapine dose on record for each individual across all samples: CLOZUK2 (β = 12.22, SE = 3.78, p = .001), CLOZUK3 (β = 12.73, SE = 5.99, p = .034), and the Norwegian cohort (β = 46.45, SE = 18.83, p = .014). In a secondary analysis, the schizophrenia PRS was associated with taking clozapine doses >600 mg/day (odds ratio = 1.279, p = .006). Conclusions The schizophrenia PRS was associated with the highest clozapine dose prescribed for an individual in records from 3 independent samples, suggesting that the genetic liability for schizophrenia might index factors associated with therapeutic decisions in cohorts of patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia

Upper crustal structure and axial topography at intermediate spreading ridges : seismic constraints from the southern Juan de Fuca Ridge

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2005): B12104, doi:10.1029/2005JB003630.We use multichannel seismic reflection data to image the upper crustal structure of 0-620 ka crust along the southern Juan de Fuca Ridge (JdFR). The study area comprises two segments spreading at intermediate rate with an axial high morphology with narrow (Cleft) and wide (Vance) axial summit grabens (ASG). Along most of the axis of both segments we image the top of an axial magma chamber (AMC). The AMC along Cleft deepens from south to north, from 2.0 km beneath the RIDGE Cleft Observatory and hydrothermal vents near the southern end of the segment, to 2.3 km at the northern end near the site of the 1980’s eruptive event. Along the Vance segment, the AMC also deepens from south to north, from 2.4 km to 2.7 km. Seismic layer 2A, interpreted as the basaltic extrusive layer, is 250-300 m thick at the ridge axis along the Cleft segment, and 300-350 m thick along the axis of the Vance segment. However off-axis layer 2A is similar in both segments (500-600 m), indicating ~90% and ~60% off-axis thickening at the Cleft and Vance segments, respectively. Half of the thickening occurs sharply at the walls of the ASG, with the remaining thickening occurring within 3-4 km of the ASG. Along the full length of both segments, layer 2A is thinner within the ASG, compared to the ridge flanks. Previous studies argued that the ASG is a cyclic feature formed by alternating periods of magmatism and tectonic extension. Our observations agree with the evolving nature of the ASG. However, we suggest that its evolution is related to large changes in axial morphology produced by small fluctuations in magma supply. Thus the ASG, rather than being formed by excess volcanism, is a rifted flexural axial high. The changes in axial morphology affect the distribution of lava flows along the ridge flanks, as indicated by the pattern of layer 2A thickness. The fluctuations in magma supply may occur at all spreading rates, but its effects on crustal structure and axial morphology are most pronounced along intermediate spreading rate ridges.This study was supported by the National Science Foundation grants OCE-0002551 to Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, OCE-0002488 to Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and OCE-0002600 to Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Effects of variable magma supply on mid-ocean ridge eruptions : constraints from mapped lava flow fields along the Galápagos Spreading Center

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 13 (2012): Q08014, doi:10.1029/2012GC004163.Mapping and sampling of 18 eruptive units in two study areas along the Galápagos Spreading Center (GSC) provide insight into how magma supply affects mid-ocean ridge (MOR) volcanic eruptions. The two study areas have similar spreading rates (53 versus 55 mm/yr), but differ by 30% in the time-averaged rate of magma supply (0.3 × 106 versus 0.4 × 106 m3/yr/km). Detailed geologic maps of each study area incorporate observations of flow contacts and sediment thickness, in addition to sample petrology, geomagnetic paleointensity, and inferences from high-resolution bathymetry data. At the lower-magma-supply study area, eruptions typically produce irregularly shaped clusters of pillow mounds with total eruptive volumes ranging from 0.09 to 1.3 km3. At the higher-magma-supply study area, lava morphologies characteristic of higher effusion rates are more common, eruptions typically occur along elongated fissures, and eruptive volumes are an order of magnitude smaller (0.002–0.13 km3). At this site, glass MgO contents (2.7–8.4 wt. %) and corresponding liquidus temperatures are lower on average, and more variable, than those at the lower-magma-supply study area (6.2–9.1 wt. % MgO). The differences in eruptive volume, lava temperature, morphology, and inferred eruption rates observed between the two areas along the GSC are similar to those that have previously been related to variable spreading rates on the global MOR system. Importantly, the documentation of multiple sequences of eruptions at each study area, representing hundreds to thousands of years, provides constraints on the variability in eruptive style at a given magma supply and spreading rate.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation grants OCE08–49813, OCE08–50052, and OCE08– 49711.2013-02-2