Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

531 s.

Holocene Landscape Dynamics and Long-term Population Trends in the Levant

This paper explores long-term trends in human population and vegetation change in the Levant from the early to the late Holocene in order to assess when and how human impact has shaped the region’s landscapes over the millennia. To do so, we employed multiple proxies and compared archaeological, pollen and palaeoclimate data within a multi-scalar approach in order to assess how Holocene landscape dynamics change at different geographical scales. We based our analysis on 14 fossil pollen sequences and applied a hierarchical agglomerative clustering and community classification in order to define groups of vegetation types (e.g. grassland, wetland, woodland, etc.). Human impact on the landscape has been assessed by the analysis of pollen indicator groups. Archaeological settlement data and Summed Probability Distribution (SPD) of radiocarbon dates have been used to reconstruct long-term demographic trends. In this study, for the first time, the evolution of the human population is estimated statistically and compared with environmental proxies for assessing the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors in shaping the Holocene landscapes in the Levant

Pollen-inferred regional vegetation patterns and demographic change in Southern Anatolia through the Holocene

Southern Anatolia is a highly significant area within the Mediterranean, particularly in terms of understanding how agriculture moved into Europe from neighbouring regions. This study uses pollen, palaeoclimate and archaeological evidence to investigate the relationships between demography and vegetation change, and to explore how the development of agriculture varied spatially. Data from 21 fossil pollen records have been transformed into forested, parkland and open vegetation types using cluster analysis. Patterns of change have been explored using non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) and through analysis of indicator groups, such as an Anthropogenic Pollen Index, and Simpson’s Diversity. Settlement data, which indicate population densities, and summed radiocarbon dates for archaeological sites have been used as a proxy for demographic change. The pollen and archaeological records confirm that farming can be detected earlier in Anatolia in comparison with many other parts of the Mediterranean. Dynamics of change in grazing indicators and the OJCV (Olea, Juglans, Castanea and Vitis) index for cultivated trees appear to match cycles of population expansion and decline. Vegetation and land use change is also influenced by other factors, such as climate change. Investigating the early impacts of anthropogenic activities (e.g. woodcutting, animal herding, the use of fire and agriculture) is key to understanding how societies have modified the environment since the mid–late Holocene, despite the capacity of ecological systems to absorb recurrent disturbances. The results of this study suggest that shifting human population dynamics played an important role in shaping land cover in central and southern Anatolia

On magnetometer heading updates for inertial pedestrian navigation system

A magnetometer is often used to aid heading estimation of a low-cost Inertial Pedestrian Navigation System (IPNS) without which the latter will not be able to accurately estimate heading for more than a few seconds, even with the help of Zero Velocity Update (ZVU). Heading measurements from the magnetometer are typically integrated with gyro heading in an estimation filter such as Kalman Filter (KF) — to best estimate the true IPNS heading, resulting in a better positioning accuracy. However indoors the reliability of these measurements is often questionable because of the magnetic disturbances that can disrupt the measurements. To solve this problem, a filtering method is often used to select the best measurements. However, the importance of the frequency of these measurement updates has not been highlighted. In this paper, the impact of frequency of magnetometer updates on the overall accuracy of the navigation system is presented. The paper starts by discussing the use of a magnetometer in a low-cost IPNS. An exemplary filter to extract reliable heading measurements from the magnetometer is then described. From real field trial results, it will be shown that even if reliable heading measurements may be obtained indoors, it is still insufficient to increase the positioning accuracy of the low-cost IPNS unless it is reliable on every epoch

Modelling climate and societal resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the last Millennium

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion(1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies.We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history

Eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate over the late glacial and Holocene, reconstructed from the sediments of Nar lake, central Turkey, using stable isotopes and carbonate mineralogy

There is a lack of high-resolution records of hydroclimate variability in the Eastern Mediterranean from the late glacial and early Holocene. More knowledge of the speed of climate shifts and the degree to which they were synchronous with changes in the North Atlantic or elsewhere is required to understand better the controls on Eastern Mediterranean climate. Using endogenic carbonate from a sediment sequence from Nar Gölü, a maar lake in central Turkey, dated by varve counting and uranium-thorium methods, we present high-resolution (∼25 years) oxygen (δ18O) and carbon isotope records, supported by carbonate mineralogy data, spanning the late glacial and Holocene. δ18Ocarbonate at Nar Gölü has been shown previously to be a strong proxy for regional water balance. After a dry period (i.e. evaporation far exceeding precipitation) in the Younger Dryas, the data show a transition into the relatively wetter early Holocene. In the early Holocene there are two drier periods that appear to peak at ∼9.3 ka and ∼8.2 ka, coincident with cooling ‘events’ seen in North Atlantic records. After this, and as seen in other records from the Eastern Mediterranean, there is a millennial-scale drying trend through the Mid Holocene Transition. The relatively dry late Holocene is punctuated by centennial-scale drought intervals, at the times of 4.2 ka ‘event’ and Late Bronze Age societal ‘collapse’. Overall, we show that central Turkey is drier when the North Atlantic is cooler, throughout this record and at multiple timescales, thought to be due to a weakening of the westerly storm track resulting from reduced cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic. However, some features, such as the Mid Holocene Transition and the fact the early Holocene dry episodes at Nar Gölü are of a longer duration than the more discrete ‘events’ seen in North Atlantic records, imply there are additional controls on Eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate