Improved sub-seasonal forecasts to support preparedness action for meningitis outbreak in Africa

West African countries are hit annually by meningitis outbreaks which occur during the dry season and are linked to atmospheric variability. This paper describes an innovative co-production process between the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD; forecast producer) and the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO; forecast user) to support awareness, preparedness and response actions for meningitis outbreaks. Using sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, this co-production enables ACMAD and WHO AFRO to build initiative that increases the production of useful climate services in the health sector. Temperature and relative humidity forecasts are combined with dust forecasts to operationalize a meningitis early warning system (MEWS) across the African meningitis belt with a two-week lead time. To prevent and control meningitis, the MEWS is produced from week 1 to 26 of the year. This study demonstrates that S2S forecasts have good skill at predicting dry and warm atmospheric conditions precede meningitis outbreaks. Vigilance levels objectively defined within the MEWS are consistent with reported cases of meningitis. Alongside developing a MEWS, the co-production process provided a framework for analysis of climate and environmental risks based on reanalysis data, meningitis burden, and health service assessment, to support the development of a qualitative roadmap of country prioritization for defeating meningitis by 2030 across the WHO African region. The roadmap has enabled the identification of countries most vulnerable to meningitis epidemics, and in the context of climate change, supports plans for preventing, preparing, and responding to meningitis outbreaks

Daily Characteristics of West African Summer Monsoon Precipitation in CORDEX Simulations

We analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of ten Regional Climate Models (RCMs) along with the ensemble mean of their statistics in simulating daily precipitation characteristics during the West African Monsoon (WAM) period (JJAS: June-July-August-September). The experiments are conducted within the framework of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) for the African domain. We find that the RCMs exhibit substantial differences that are associated with a wide range of estimates of higher order statistics, such as intensity, frequency and daily extremes mostly driven by the convective scheme employed. For instance, a number of the RCMs simulate a similar number of wet days compared to observations but greater rainfall intensity, especially in oceanic regions adjacent to the Guinea Highlands because of a larger number of heavy precipitation events. Other models exhibit a higher wet-day frequency but much lower rainfall intensity over West Africa due to the occurrence of less frequent heavy rainfall events. This indicates the existence of large uncertainties related to the simulation of daily rainfall characteristics by the RCMs. The ensemble mean of the indices substantially improves the RCMs simulated frequency and intensity of precipitation events, moderately outperforms that of the 95th percentile and provides mixed benefits for the dry and wet spells. Although the ensemble mean improved results cannot be generalized, such an approach produces encouraging results and can help, to some extent, to improve the robustness of the response of the West African Monsoon (WAM) daily precipitation to the anthropogenic GHGs warming.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

Effects of inhalation of low-dose nitrite or carbon monoxide on post-reperfusion mitochondrial function and tissue injury in hemorrhagic shock swine

Introduction Tissue reperfusion following hemorrhagic shock may paradoxically cause tissue injury and organ dysfunction by mitochondrial free radical expression. Both nitrite and carbon monoxide (CO) may protect from this reperfusion injury by limiting mitochondrial free radial production. We explored the effects of very small doses of inhaled nitrite and CO on tissue injury in a porcine model of hemorrhagic shock. Methods Twenty pigs (mean wt. 30.6 kg, range 27.2 to 36.4 kg) had microdialysis catheters inserted in muscle, peritoneum, and liver to measure lactate, pyruvate, glucose, glycerol, and nitrite. Nineteen of the pigs were bled at a rate of 20 ml/min to a mean arterial pressure of 30 mmHg and kept between 30 and 40 mmHg for 90 minutes and then resuscitated. One pig was instrumented but not bled (sham). Hemorrhaged animals were randomized to inhale nothing (control, n = 7), 11 mg nitrite (nitrite, n = 7) or 250 ppm CO (CO, n = 5) over 30 minutes before fluid resuscitation. Mitochondrial respiratory control ratio was measured in muscle biopsies. Repeated measures from microdialysis catheters were analyzed in a random effects mixed model. Results Neither nitrite nor CO had any effects on the measured hemodynamic variables. Following inhalation of nitrite, plasma, but not tissue, nitrite increased. Following reperfusion, plasma nitrite only increased in the control and CO groups. Thereafter, nitrite decreased only in the nitrite group. Inhalation of nitrite was associated with decreases in blood lactate, whereas both nitrite and CO were associated with decreases in glycerol release into peritoneal fluid. Following resuscitation, the muscular mitochondrial respiratory control ratio was reduced in the control group but preserved in the nitrite and CO groups. Conclusions We conclude that small doses of nebulized sodium nitrite or inhaled CO may be associated with intestinal protection during resuscitation from severe hemorrhagic shock

The African SWIFT project: growing science capability to bring about a revolution in weather prediction

Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The GCRF African SWIFT project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps. Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training; modelling and operational prediction; communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather-forecasting “Testbeds” – the first of their kind in Africa – which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives and communications pathways into a semi-operational forecasting environment