Conflict and Livelihood Decisions in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

__Abstract__ We analyse rural household livelihood and child school enrolment decisions in the post-conflict setting of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) region of Bangladesh. What makes this paper innovative is the use of current subjective perceptions regarding the possibility of violence in the future and past actual experiences of violence in explaining household economic decision-making. Preferences are endogenous in line with behavioural economics. Regression results show that heightened subjective perceptions of future violence and past actual experiences of conflict influence current consumption and child enrolment and could encourage risky mixed crop cultivation. The trauma emanating from past experiences combined with current high perceptions of risk of violence may induce bolder and riskier behaviour in line with prospect theories of risk. Furthermore, a postconflic

Determination of free 25(OH)D concentrations and their relationships to total 25(OH)D in multiple clinical populations

Context : The optimal measure of vitamin D(D) status is unknown. Objective : Directly measure circulating free 25(OH)D concentrations and relationships to total 25(OH)D in a clinically diverse sample of humans. Design : Cross-sectional analysis Setting : Seven academic sites Patients : 1661 adults: (healthy(n=211), pre-diabetic(n=479), outpatients(n=783), cirrhotic(n=90), pregnant(n=20), nursing home(n=79)) Interventions : Merge research data on circulating free 25(OH)D (directly measured immunoassay), total 25(OH)D (LC/MS/MS), D binding protein (DBP by radial (polyclonal) immunodiffusion assay)), albumin, creatinine, iPTH and DBP haplotype Main outcome measures : Distribution of free 25(OH)D (ANOVA with Bonferroni correction for post hoc comparisons) and relationships between free and total 25(OH)D (mixed effects modeling incorporating clinical condition, DBP haplotype with sex, race, eGFR, BMI and other covariates). Results : Free 25(OH)D was 4.7±1.8 pg/mL (mean ±SD) in healthy and 4.3 ±1.9 pg/mL in outpatients with 0.5-8.1 pg/mL and 0.9-8.1 pg/mL encompassing 95% of healthy and outpatients, respectively. Free 25(OH)D was higher in cirrhotics (7.1 ±3.0 pg/mL, pnursing home>prediabetic > outpatient > pregnant), and BMI (lesser effect) as covariates affecting relationships but not eGFR, sex, race or DBP haplotype. Conclusions : Total 25(OH)D, health condition, race and DBP haplotype affected free 25(OH)D, but only health conditions and BMI affected relationships between total and free 25(OH) D. Clinical importance of free 25(OH)D needs to be established in studies assessing outcomes

Photographed Rapid HIV Test Results Pilot Novel Quality Assessment and Training Schemes

HIV rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are now used widely in non-laboratory settings by non-laboratory-trained operators. Quality assurance programmes are essential in ensuring the quality of HIV RDT outcomes. However, there is no cost-effective means of supplying the many operators of RDTs with suitable quality assurance schemes. Therefore, it was examined whether photograph-based RDT results could be used and correctly interpreted in the non-laboratory setting. Further it was investigated if a single training session improved the interpretation skills of RDT operators. The photographs were interpreted, a 10-minute tutorial given and then a second interpretation session was held. It was established that the results could be read with accuracy. The participants (n = 75) with a range of skills interpreted results (>80% concordance with reference results) from a panel of 10 samples (three negative and seven positive) using four RDTs. Differences in accuracy of interpretation before and after the tutorial were marked in some cases. Training was more effective for improving the accurate interpretation of more complex results, e.g. results with faint test lines or for multiple test lines, and especially for improving interpretation skills of inexperienced participants. It was demonstrated that interpretation of RDTs was improved using photographed results allied to a 10-minute training session. It is anticipated that this method could be used for training but also for quality assessment of RDT operators without access to conventional quality assurance or training schemes requiring wet samples

Quantitative PCR reveals strong spatial and temporal variation of the wasting disease pathogen, Labyrinthula zosterae in northern European eelgrass (Zostera marina) beds

Seagrass beds are the foundation species of functionally important coastal ecosystems worldwide. The world’s largest losses of the widespread seagrass Zostera marina (eelgrass) have been reported as a consequence of wasting disease, an infection with the endophytic protist Labyrinthula zosterae. During one of the most extended epidemics in the marine realm, ~90% of East and Western Atlantic eelgrass beds died-off between 1932 and 1934. Today, small outbreaks continue to be reported, but the current extent of L. zosterae in European meadows is completely unknown. In this study we quantify the abundance and prevalence of the wasting disease pathogen among 19 Z. marina populations in northern European coastal waters, using quantitative PCR (QPCR) with primers targeting a species specific portion of the internally transcribed spacer (ITS1) of L. zosterae. Spatially, we found marked variation among sites with abundances varying between 0 and 126 cells mg−1 Z. marina dry weight (mean: 5.7 L. zosterae cells mg−1 Z. marina dry weight ±1.9 SE) and prevalences ranged from 0–88.9%. Temporarily, abundances varied between 0 and 271 cells mg−1 Z. marina dry weight (mean: 8.5±2.6 SE), while prevalences ranged from zero in winter and early spring to 96% in summer. Field concentrations accessed via bulk DNA extraction and subsequent QPCR correlated well with prevalence data estimated via isolation and cultivation from live plant tissue. L. zosterae was not only detectable in black lesions, a sign of Labyrinthula-induced necrosis, but also occurred in green, apparently healthy tissue. We conclude that L. zosterae infection is common (84% infected populations) in (northern) European eelgrass populations with highest abundances during the summer months. In the light of global climate change and increasing rate of marine diseases our data provide a baseline for further studies on the causes of pathogenic outbreaks of L. zosterae

Inductive Game Theory and the Dynamics of Animal Conflict

Conflict destabilizes social interactions and impedes cooperation at multiple scales of biological organization. Of fundamental interest are the causes of turbulent periods of conflict. We analyze conflict dynamics in an monkey society model system. We develop a technique, Inductive Game Theory, to extract directly from time-series data the decision-making strategies used by individuals and groups. This technique uses Monte Carlo simulation to test alternative causal models of conflict dynamics. We find individuals base their decision to fight on memory of social factors, not on short timescale ecological resource competition. Furthermore, the social assessments on which these decisions are based are triadic (self in relation to another pair of individuals), not pairwise. We show that this triadic decision making causes long conflict cascades and that there is a high population cost of the large fights associated with these cascades. These results suggest that individual agency has been over-emphasized in the social evolution of complex aggregates, and that pair-wise formalisms are inadequate. An appreciation of the empirical foundations of the collective dynamics of conflict is a crucial step towards its effective management

Social cooperation and resource management dynamics among late hunter-fisher-gatherer societies in Tierra del Fuego (South America)

This paper presents the theoretical basis and first results of an agent-based model (ABM) computer simulation that is being developed to explore cooperation in hunter–gatherer societies. Specifically, we focus here on Yamana, a hunter-fisher-gatherer society that inhabited the islands of the southernmost part of Tierra del Fuego (Argentina–Chile). Ethnographical and archaeological evidence suggests the existence of sporadic aggregation events, triggered by a public call through smoke signals of an extraordinary confluence of resources under unforeseeable circumstances in time and space (a beached whale or an exceptional accumulation of fish after a low tide, for example). During these aggregation events, the different social units involved used to develop and improve production, distribution and consumption processes in a collective way. This paper attempts to analyse the social dynamics that explain cooperative behaviour and resource-sharing during aggregation events using an agent-based model of indirect reciprocity. In brief, agents make their decisions based on the success of the public strategies of other agents. Fitness depends on the resource captured and the social capital exchanged in aggregation events, modified by the agent’s reputation. Our computational results identify the relative importance of resources with respect to social benefits and the ease in detecting—and hence punishing—a defector as key factors to promote and sustain cooperative behaviour among populationSpanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (projects CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010 SimulPast-CSD2010-00034 and HAR2009-06996) as well as from the Argentine Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (project PIP-0706) and the Wenner-Gren Foundation for Anthropological Research (project GR7846)

The Relative Role of Perceived Partner Risks in Promoting Condom Use in a Three-City Sample of High-Risk, Low-Income Women

We examined the effect of women’s perceptions of sexual partner risks on condom use. Women from three US cities (n = 1,967) were recruited to provide data on HIV risks. In univariate models, increased odds of condom use were associated with perceiving that partners had concurrent partners and being unaware of partners': (a) HIV status, (b) bisexuality, (c) concurrency; and/or (d) injection drug use. In multivariate models, neither being unaware of the four partner risk factors nor perceiving a partner as being high risk was associated with condom use. Contextual factors associated with decreased odds of condom use were having sex with a main partner, homelessness in the past year, alcohol use during sex, and crack use in the past 30 days. Awareness of a partner’s risks may not be sufficient for increasing condom use. Contextual factors, sex with a main partner in particular, decrease condom use despite awareness of partner risk factors

Mechanism of Inhibition of Enveloped Virus Membrane Fusion by the Antiviral Drug Arbidol

The broad-spectrum antiviral arbidol (Arb) inhibits cell entry of enveloped viruses by blocking viral fusion with host cell membrane. To better understand Arb mechanism of action, we investigated its interactions with phospholipids and membrane peptides. We demonstrate that Arb associates with phospholipids in the micromolar range. NMR reveals that Arb interacts with the polar head-group of phospholipid at the membrane interface. Fluorescence studies of interactions between Arb and either tryptophan derivatives or membrane peptides reconstituted into liposomes show that Arb interacts with tryptophan in the micromolar range. Interestingly, apparent binding affinities between lipids and tryptophan residues are comparable with those of Arb IC50 of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) membrane fusion. Since tryptophan residues of membrane proteins are known to bind preferentially at the membrane interface, these data suggest that Arb could increase the strength of virus glycoprotein's interactions with the membrane, due to a dual binding mode involving aromatic residues and phospholipids. The resulting complexation would inhibit the expected viral glycoprotein conformational changes required during the fusion process. Our findings pave the way towards the design of new drugs exhibiting Arb-like interfacial membrane binding properties to inhibit early steps of virus entry, i.e., attractive targets to combat viral infection

The Past and Future of Evolutionary Economics : Some Reflections Based on New Bibliometric Evidence

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Geoffrey M. Hodgson, and Juha-Antti Lamberg, ‘The past and future of evolutionary economics: some reflections based on new bibliometric evidence’, Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, first online 20 June 2016. The final publication is available at Springer via doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40844-016-0044-3 © Japan Association for Evolutionary Economics 2016The modern wave of ‘evolutionary economics’ was launched with the classic study by Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter (1982). This paper reports a broad bibliometric analysis of ‘evolutionary’ research in the disciplines of management, business, economics, and sociology over 25 years from 1986 to 2010. It confirms that Nelson and Winter (1982) is an enduring nodal reference point for this broad field. The bibliometric evidence suggests that ‘evolutionary economics’ has benefitted from the rise of business schools and other interdisciplinary institutions, which have provided a home for evolutionary terminology, but it has failed to nurture a strong unifying core narrative or theory, which in turn could provide superior answers to important questions. This bibliometric evidence also shows that no strong cluster of general theoretical research immediately around Nelson and Winter (1982) has subsequently emerged. It identifies developmental problems in a partly successful but fragmented field. Future research in ‘evolutionary economics’ needs a more integrated research community with shared conceptual narratives and common research questions, to promote conversation and synergy between diverse clusters of research.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio