Approximation bias in estimating risk aversion

The asymmetric approximation originally employed by Pratt (1964) to construct reduced-form measures of risk aversion s a downward bias when used for empirical estimation. Calculations based on recent survey data indicate that estimates from a symmetric approximation are generally three times larger than their asymmetric counterparts, a finding that may help to explain the equity premium puzzle.

Measuring Aversion to Health Risks

Researchers have commonly used financial gambles to assess risk preferences, though attitudes regarding monetary gambles may differ from those concerning health risks. Moreover, the conventional measure of risk preference—the Pratt-Arrow coefficient of relative risk aversion—is a point-elasticity suitable only for trivial risks, whereas the risks pertaining to medical treatment—often involving life-ordeath decisions—are quite substantial. Our objective is to examine attitudes toward health risks and the variables that influence those attitudes. In addition to the conventional metric, we employ an alternative measure of risk aversion designed for large-scale risks; the latter is calculated as an arc-elasticity of marginal utility. Both measures are applied to responses from a health preference survey, which incorporates a standard gamble over longevity. Measured risk aversion is then related to health and demographic variables using multiple linear regressions. Our research suggests that tolerance of health risks may be influenced by an endowment effect reflecting the asymmetry of medical information between patients and providers. We also find that the arc-elasticity measure captures more of the significant differences and has a stronger correlation to demographic and socio-economic variables than does the more traditional point-elasticity measure, indicating that the conventional measures of risk aversion are indeed ill suited to large-scale risks such as those involving health. In addition, our results suggest that health-related risk preferences may differ from financial risk attitudes. Although our sample is relatively small and largely homogeneous, these results collectively provide a basis for replication and a justification for additional study on the measurement of risk aversion with regard to health

Estimating Prudence

This study uses an expected utility model of life insurance demand to derive reduced form equations for the Leland-Kimball measures of absolute and relative prudence. The model is estimated for various demographic subgroups using survey data form the University of Michigan's Health and Retirement Study. The estimates of relative prudence range from 1.51 to 5.15, with males at the lower end and females at the higher end of the range. Additionally, prudence is higher among older and married cohorts than among younger and unmarried cohorts, respectively; and smokers, drinkers, and risk-takers appear to be less prudent than their respective counterparts.Insurance

miRNA signature associated with outcome of gastric cancer patients following chemotherapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Identification of patients who likely will or will not benefit from cytotoxic chemotherapy through the use of biomarkers could greatly improve clinical management by better defining appropriate treatment options for patients. microRNAs may be potentially useful biomarkers that help guide individualized therapy for cancer because microRNA expression is dysregulated in cancer. In order to identify miRNA signatures for gastric cancer and for predicting clinical resistance to cisplatin/fluorouracil (CF) chemotherapy, a comprehensive miRNA microarray analysis was performed using endoscopic biopsy samples.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Biopsy samples were collected prior to chemotherapy from 90 gastric cancer patients treated with CF and from 34 healthy volunteers. At the time of disease progression, post-treatment samples were additionally collected from 8 clinical responders. miRNA expression was determined using a custom-designed Agilent microarray. In order to identify a miRNA signature for chemotherapy resistance, we correlated miRNA expression levels with the time to progression (TTP) of disease after CF therapy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A miRNA signature distinguishing gastric cancer from normal stomach epithelium was identified. 30 miRNAs were significantly inversely correlated with TTP whereas 28 miRNAs were significantly positively correlated with TTP of 82 cancer patients (<it>P</it><0.05). Prominent among the upregulated miRNAs associated with chemosensitivity were miRNAs known to regulate apoptosis, including let-7g, miR-342, miR-16, miR-181, miR-1, and miR-34. When this 58-miRNA predictor was applied to a separate set of pre- and post-treatment tumor samples from the 8 clinical responders, all of the 8 pre-treatment samples were correctly predicted as low-risk, whereas samples from the post-treatment tumors that developed chemoresistance were predicted to be in the high-risk category by the 58 miRNA signature, suggesting that selection for the expression of these miRNAs occurred as chemoresistance arose.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We have identified 1) a miRNA expression signature that distinguishes gastric cancer from normal stomach epithelium from healthy volunteers, and 2) a chemoreresistance miRNA expression signature that is correlated with TTP after CF therapy. The chemoresistance miRNA expression signature includes several miRNAs previously shown to regulate apoptosis <it>in vitro</it>, and warrants further validation.</p

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world\u27s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Targeted agents and immunotherapies: optimizing outcomes in melanoma

Treatment options for patients with metastatic melanoma, and especially BRAF-mutant melanoma, have changed dramatically in the past 5 years, with the FDA approval of eight new therapeutic agents. During this period, the treatment paradigm for BRAF-mutant disease has evolved rapidly: the standard-of-care BRAF-targeted approach has shifted from single-agent BRAF inhibition to combination therapy with a BRAF and a MEK inhibitor. Concurrently, immunotherapy has transitioned from cytokine-based treatment to antibody-mediated blockade of the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen-4 (CTLA-4) and, now, the programmed cell-death protein 1 (PD-1) immune checkpoints. These changes in the treatment landscape have dramatically improved patient outcomes, with the median overall survival of patients with advanced-stage melanoma increasing from approximately 9 months before 2011 to at least 2 years - and probably longer for those with BRAF-V600-mutant disease. Herein, we review the clinical trial data that established the standard-of-care treatment approaches for advanced-stage melanoma. Mechanisms of resistance and biomarkers of response to BRAF-targeted treatments and immunotherapies are discussed, and the contrasting clinical benefits and limitations of these therapies are explored. We summarize the state of the field and outline a rational approach to frontline-treatment selection for each individual patient with BRAF-mutant melanoma

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications