Examining the impacts of projected precipitation changes on sugar beet yield in Eastern England

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonProjected increasing temperatures and reduced summer precipitation in the UK raises questions about the sustainability of aspects of the agriculture industry and food security. This study investigates the potential impact of precipitation changes on sugar beet yield in Eastern England. Observations of precipitation was examined for the period 1971-2000 and the expected changes in precipitation were investigated using seven CMIP5 climate models for the historical phase (1971-2000) and RCP45 and RCP85 future scenarios (2021-2050). Three out of the seven models were found to show good agreement with observations but the MOHC ensemble mean was the closest to the observed means and was used for further precipitation analyses. Statistical analysis of the future precipitation changes were performed using the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) model focused on changes between the historical phase and RCP45 and RCP85. Results showed a consistent and significant reduction in annual May-October precipitation under future scenarios. The study then investigated the impact of reduced future precipitation changes on sugar beet yield by applying controlled watering regimes informed by the CMIP5 projections to sugar beet plants in a greenhouse experiment over two seasons – the use of CMIP5 projections in this way is a first. In the first experiment carried out in 2014, a climatological watering regime (i.e. where the total seasonal rainfall for the different scenarios was applied in equal and regular watering events) was applied to the plants, which meant a 16% reduction in precipitation in the “future” category relative to a “control” category. Analysis of the yields indicated a statistically significant reduction in mean tuber wet mass: mean of 360g for the control and 319g for the future (p-value 0.03). This implies a potential yield reduction of 11% by 2050. In the second experiment carried out in 2015, a “realistic distribution” watering regime (i.e. where the total seasonal rainfall is applied in a series of watering events that reflect the analysed sizes and distribution of rainfall events in the different categories), this meant a reduction in precipitation in the months of June (-15.6%), July (-7.7%) and August (-3.7%). This resulted in statistically significant reduction in mean tuber wet mass between control (153g) and RCP85 (113g) with a p-value of 0.01. This implies a reduction of 26% in future yields under RCP85 by 2050. Results in this thesis further show how changes and variation in precipitation are intertwined with changes in soil moisture and yield of sugar beet plants. The findings will enable UK sugar beet farmers to identify potential areas of challenges in order to adapt their management practices to ensure maximum crop yield in future growing seasons. Moreover, from a global perspective, the findings here are also broadly applicable to a variety of agricultural crops in different parts of the world, where changes in yield may have important consequences to food security and food prices

Prevalence and Parasite Density of Asymptomatic Malaria Parasitemia among Unbooked Paturients at Abakaliki, Nigeria

Background: Malaria in pregnancy has contributed significantly to maternal morbidity and mortality in our environment.Aim: This study was aimed at determining the prevalence, and parasite density of asymptomatic malaria parasitemia among unbooked paturients at Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki. Subjects and Methods: This was a prospective cross‑sectional study conducted in the labor ward complex of the Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki over a period of three months from March to May 2012. Two hundred and fifty unbooked women presenting in labor at term and willing to participate were consecutively recruited. A structured data collection sheet was administered to each parturient. Thick and thin blood films were prepared for quantification and speciation of parasitemia respectively. Results: A total of 250 unbooked parturients participated in the study. The mean age of the parturients was 28.2 (7.2) years. One hundred and seven 107/250 (42.8%) were primigravid, 111/250 (44.4%) were between para 1‑4 while 32/250 (12.8%) were para 5 and above. Majority of the parturients 236/250 (95.2%) were of low socio‑economic class. The prevalence of asymptomatic malaria parasitemia was 77.6%. Asymptomatic malaria parasitemia was most prevalent among paturients of social class 5 (24/32 (75%) and primigravid paturients (93/107 (86.9%)) and the association of asymptomatic malaria parasitemia with parity (χ2 = 10.8, P = 0.01) and social class (χ2 = 10.88, P = 0.02) was statistically significant. Conclusion: There was high prevalence of asymptomatic malaria parasitemia in the study. Preconceptional care and early antenatal booking are advocated with emphasis on prevention of malaria infestation through health education and effective use of insecticide treated nets and intermittent prophylaxis therapy for malaria during pregnancy.Keywords: Asymptomatic malaria parasitemia, Nigeria, prevalence, unbooked paturient

Medical mortality in an emergency department in Nigeria: the transition is obvious!

Introduction: The emergency department (ED), a major entry point into the hospital, provides an insight to the type of cases seen, the quality of care and mortality spectrum in a health institution. We aim to identify the spectrum of medical causes of mortality in our ED, the demographic pattern and duration of stay before death. Method: This is a retrospective study that looked at medical mortality in the ED from January 2004 to December 2009. We obtained data on the demographics and causes of death from the medical records and case notes of the deceased. Results: A total of 16587 patients were admitted during the period under review, of these 1262 (7.61%) died in the ED. The male to female ratio was 1.58:1.0 [772 males (61.2%), and 489 females (38.8%)]. Mortality was highest among the 20-45years age range, followed by 46-65 years, >65years and < 20 years in decreasing frequency [589(46.7%), 421(33.4%), 186 (14.8%) and 66(5.2%) respectively]. The three most common causes of death were stroke 315(25%), HIV related illnesses 126(10.0%), and heart failure 123(9.7%). Most deaths occurred less than 24hours of admission, 550(43.6%), followed by one day (36.0%) and two days (10.8%) post admissions respectively. Conclusion: The commonest cause of death in the ED was stroke. The burden of death was highest in the younger age group, with most occurring less than 24 hours of admission

Vitamin A supplementation in Tanzania: the impact of a change in programmatic delivery strategy on coverage.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Efficient delivery strategies for health interventions are essential for high and sustainable coverage. We report impact of a change in programmatic delivery strategy from routine delivery through the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI+) approach to twice-yearly mass distribution campaigns on coverage of vitamin A supplementation in Tanzania\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud We investigated disparities in age, sex, socio-economic status, nutritional status and maternal education within vitamin A coverage in children between 1 and 2 years of age from two independent household level child health surveys conducted (1) during a continuous universal targeting scheme based on routine EPI contacts for children aged 9, 15 and 21 months (1999); and (2) three years later after the introduction of twice-yearly vitamin A supplementation campaigns for children aged 6 months to 5 years, a 6-monthly universal targeting scheme (2002). A representative cluster sample of approximately 2,400 rural households was obtained from Rufiji, Morogoro Rural, Kilombero and Ulanga districts. A modular questionnaire about the health of all children under the age of five was administered to consenting heads of households and caretakers of children. Information on the use of child health interventions including vitamin A was asked.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud Coverage of vitamin A supplementation among 1-2 year old children increased from 13% [95% CI 10-18%] in 1999 to 76% [95%CI 72-81%] in 2002. In 2002 knowledge of two or more child health danger signs was negatively associated with vitamin A supplementation coverage (80% versus 70%) (p = 0.04). Nevertheless, we did not find any disparities in coverage of vitamin A by district, gender, socio-economic status and DPT vaccinations.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud Change in programmatic delivery of vitamin A supplementation was associated with a major improvement in coverage in Tanzania that was been sustained by repeated campaigns for at least three years. There is a need to monitor the effect of such campaigns on the routine health system and on equity of coverage. Documentation of vitamin A supplementation campaign contacts on routine maternal and child health cards would be a simple step to facilitate this monitoring

Are Current or Future Mesothelioma Epidemics in Hong Kong the Tragic Legacy of Uncontrolled Use of Asbestos in the Past?

BACKGROUND: Because of the long latent period of asbestos-related mesothelioma, investigators suggest that the high incidence of this disease will continue in the coming decades. OBJECTIVES: We describe the time trends of mesothelioma incidence and its relationship to historical consumption of asbestos in Hong Kong and project future trends of mesothelioma incidence. METHODS: We obtained local annual consumption of total asbestos for 1960-2006 (converted to kilograms per person per year). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of mesothelioma were computed and depicted on graphs using the centered moving average method. Indirectly standardized rates were regressed on a transformation of consumption data that assumed that the latency between asbestos exposure and mesothelioma diagnosis followed a normal distribution with a mean ± SD of 42 ± 10.5 years. RESULTS: ASIRs for males started to increase substantially in 1994 and were highest in 2004; for females, ASIRs climbed in the 1980s and in the early 1990s but have fluctuated without obvious trends in recent years. The highest asbestos consumption level in Hong Kong was in 1960-1963 and then decreased sharply afterward. Using past asbestos consumption patterns, we predict that the mesothelioma incidence rate for males will peak in 2009, with the number of cases peaking in 2014, and then slowly decline in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: Hong Kong experienced an epidemic of mesothelioma from 2000 to 2006 that corresponded with the peak of local asbestos consumption in the early 1960s assuming an average latent period of 42 years. The incidence is anticipated to decline in the coming decades but may not decrease back to the background risk level (the risk unrelated to asbestos exposure)

Role of silicon in the development of complex crystal shapes in coccolithophores

The development of calcification by the coccolithophores had a profound impact on ocean carbon cycling, but the evolutionary steps leading to the formation of these complex biomineralized structures are not clear. Heterococcoliths consisting of intricately shaped calcite crystals are formed intracellularly by the diploid life cycle phase. Holococcoliths consisting of simple rhombic crystals can be produced by the haploid life cycle stage but are thought to be formed extracellularly, representing an independent evolutionary origin of calcification. We use advanced microscopy techniques to determine the nature of coccolith formation and complex crystal formation in coccolithophore life cycle stages. We find that holococcoliths are formed in intracellular compartments in a similar manner to heterococcoliths. However, we show that silicon is not required for holococcolith formation and that the requirement for silicon in certain coccolithophore species relates specifically to the process of crystal morphogenesis in heterococcoliths. We therefore propose an evolutionary scheme in which the lower complexity holococcoliths represent an ancestral form of calcification in coccolithophores. The subsequent recruitment of a silicon-dependent mechanism for crystal morphogenesis in the diploid life cycle stage led to the emergence of the intricately shaped heterococcoliths, enabling the formation of the elaborate coccospheres that underpin the ecological success of coccolithophores

Examining equity in access to long-lasting insecticide nets and artemisinin-based combination therapy in Anambra state, Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In order to achieve universal health coverage, the government of Anambra State, southeast Nigeria has distributed free Long-lasting Insecticide treated Nets (LLINs) to the general population and delivered free Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT) to pregnant women and children less than 5 years. However, the levels of coverage with LLINS and ACTs is not clear, especially coverage of different socio-economic status (SES) population groups. This study was carried out to determine the level of coverage and access to LLINs and ACTs amongst different SES groups.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A questionnaire was used to collect data from randomly selected households in 19 local government areas of the State. Selected households had a pregnant woman and/or a child less than 5 years. The lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methodology was used in sampling. The questionnaire explored the availability and utilization of LLINs and ACTs from 2394 households. An asset-based SES index was used to examine the level of access of LLINS and ACTs to different SES quintiles.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>It was found that 80.5 % of the households had an LLIN and 64.4 % of the households stated that they actually used the nets the previous night. The findings showed that 42.3 % of pregnant women who had fever within the past month received ACTs, while 37.5 % of children ≪5 years old who had malaria in the past month had received ACTs. There was equity in ownership of nets for the range 1–5 nets per household. No significant SES difference was found in use of ACTs for treatment of malaria in children under five years old and in pregnant women.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The free distribution of LLINs and ACTs increased household coverage of both malaria control interventions and bridged the equity gap in access to them among the most vulnerable groups.</p

Prevalence of complications of male circumcision in Anglophone Africa: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence that male circumcision (MC) prevents heterosexual acquisition of HIV by males in sub-Saharan Africa, the region of the world heavily affected by the HIV pandemic. While there is growing support for wide-spread availability and accessibility of MC in Africa, there is limited discussion about the prevalence of physical complications of male circumcision on the continent. METHODS: A systematic literature search and review of articles in indexed journals and conference abstracts was conducted to collect and analyze prevalence of complications of MC in Anglophone sub-Saharan Africa. Information extracted included: indications for MC, complications reported, age of patients and category of circumcisers. RESULTS: There were 8 articles and 2 abstracts that were suitable for the analysis. The studies were not strictly comparable as some reported on a wide range of complications while others reported just a limited list of possible complications. Prevalence of reported complications of MC ranged from 0% to 50.1%. Excluding the study with 50.1%, which was on a series of haemophilia patients, the next highest prevalence of complications was 24.1%. Most of the complications were minor. There was no firm evidence to suggest that MCs performed by physician surgeons were associated with lower prevalence of complications when compared with non-physician health professionals. CONCLUSION: The available data are inadequate to obtain a reasonable assessment of the prevalence of complications of MC in sub-Saharan Africa. Some of the available studies however report potentially significant prevalence of complications, though of minor clinical significance. This should be considered as public health policy makers consider whether to scale-up MC as an HIV preventative measure. Decision for the scale-up will depend on a careful cost-benefit assessment of which physical complications are certainly an important aspect. There is need for standardized reporting of complications of male circumcision

Population Pharmacokinetics of Telapristone (CDB-4124) and its Active Monodemethylated Metabolite CDB-4453, with a Mixture Model for Total Clearance

Telapristone is a selective progesterone antagonist that is being developed for the long-term treatment of symptoms associated with endometriosis and uterine fibroids. The population pharmacokinetics of telapristone (CDB-4124) and CDB-4453 was investigated using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Data from two clinical studies (n = 32) were included in the analysis. A two-compartment (parent) one compartment (metabolite) mixture model (with two populations for apparent clearance) with first-order absorption and elimination adequately described the pharmacokinetics of telapristone and CDB-4453. Telapristone was rapidly absorbed with an absorption rate constant (Ka) of 1.26 h−1. Moderate renal impairment resulted in a 74% decrease in Ka. The population estimates for oral clearance (CL/F) for the two populations were 11.6 and 3.34 L/h, respectively, with 25% of the subjects being allocated to the high-clearance group. Apparent volume of distribution for the central compartment (V2/F) was 37.4 L, apparent inter-compartmental clearance (Q/F) was 21.9 L/h, and apparent peripheral volume of distribution for the parent (V4/F) was 120 L. The ratio of the fraction of telapristone converted to CDB-4453 to the distribution volume of CDB-4453 (Fmetest) was 0.20/L. Apparent volume of distribution of the metabolite compartment (V3/F) was fixed to 1 L and apparent clearance of the metabolite (CLM/F) was 2.43 L/h. A two-compartment parent-metabolite model adequately described the pharmacokinetics of telapristone and CDB-4453. The clearance of telapristone was separated into two populations and could be the result of metabolism via polymorphic CYP3A5

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal