The assessment of science: the relative merits of post- publication review, the impact factor, and the number of citations

The assessment of scientific publications is an integral part of the scientific process. Here we investigate three methods of assessing the merit of a scientific paper: subjective post-publication peer review, the number of citations gained by a paper, and the impact factor of the journal in which the article was published. We investigate these methods using two datasets in which subjective post-publication assessments of scientific publications have been made by experts. We find that there are moderate, but statistically significant, correlations between assessor scores, when two assessors have rated the same paper, and between assessor score and the number of citations a paper accrues. However, we show that assessor score depends strongly on the journal in which the paper is published, and that assessors tend to over-rate papers published in journals with high impact factors. If we control for this bias, we find that the correlation between assessor scores and between assessor score and the number of citations is weak, suggesting that scientists have little ability to judge either the intrinsic merit of a paper or its likely impact. We also show that the number of citations a paper receives is an extremely error-prone measure of scientific merit. Finally, we argue that the impact factor is likely to be a poor measure of merit, since it depends on subjective assessment. We conclude that the three measures of scientific merit considered here are poor; in particular subjective assessments are an error-prone, biased, and expensive method by which to assess merit. We argue that the impact factor may be the most satisfactory of the methods we have considered, since it is a form of pre-publication review. However, we emphasise that it is likely to be a very error-prone measure of merit that is qualitative, not quantitative

Atypical functional connectome hierarchy in autism.

One paradox of autism is the co-occurrence of deficits in sensory and higher-order socio-cognitive processing. Here, we examined whether these phenotypical patterns may relate to an overarching system-level imbalance-specifically a disruption in macroscale hierarchy affecting integration and segregation of unimodal and transmodal networks. Combining connectome gradient and stepwise connectivity analysis based on task-free functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we demonstrated atypical connectivity transitions between sensory and higher-order default mode regions in a large cohort of individuals with autism relative to typically-developing controls. Further analyses indicated that reduced differentiation related to perturbed stepwise connectivity from sensory towards transmodal areas, as well as atypical long-range rich-club connectivity. Supervised pattern learning revealed that hierarchical features predicted deficits in social cognition and low-level behavioral symptoms, but not communication-related symptoms. Our findings provide new evidence for imbalances in network hierarchy in autism, which offers a parsimonious reference frame to consolidate its diverse features

Construction of a Global Pain Systems Network Highlights Phospholipid Signaling as a Regulator of Heat Nociception

The ability to perceive noxious stimuli is critical for an animal's survival in the face of environmental danger, and thus pain perception is likely to be under stringent evolutionary pressure. Using a neuronal-specific RNAi knock-down strategy in adult Drosophila, we recently completed a genome-wide functional annotation of heat nociception that allowed us to identify α2δ3 as a novel pain gene. Here we report construction of an evolutionary-conserved, system-level, global molecular pain network map. Our systems map is markedly enriched for multiple genes associated with human pain and predicts a plethora of novel candidate pain pathways. One central node of this pain network is phospholipid signaling, which has been implicated before in pain processing. To further investigate the role of phospholipid signaling in mammalian heat pain perception, we analysed the phenotype of PIP5Kα and PI3Kγ mutant mice. Intriguingly, both of these mice exhibit pronounced hypersensitivity to noxious heat and capsaicin-induced pain, which directly mapped through PI3Kγ kinase-dead knock-in mice to PI3Kγ lipid kinase activity. Using single primary sensory neuron recording, PI3Kγ function was mechanistically linked to a negative regulation of TRPV1 channel transduction. Our data provide a systems map for heat nociception and reinforces the extraordinary conservation of molecular mechanisms of nociception across different species. © 2012 Neely et al

Conditioned Pain Modulation Is Associated with Common Polymorphisms in the Serotonin Transporter Gene

BACKGROUND: Variation in the serotonin transporter (5-HTT) gene (SLC6A4) has been shown to influence a wide range of affective processes. Low 5-HTT gene-expression has also been suggested to increase the risk of chronic pain. Conditioned pain modulation (CPM)--i.e. 'pain inhibits pain'--is impaired in chronic pain states and, reciprocally, aberrations of CPM may predict the development of chronic pain. Therefore we hypothesized that a common variation in the SLC6A4 is associated with inter-individual variation in CPM. Forty-five healthy subjects recruited on the basis of tri-allelic 5-HTTLPR genotype, with inferred high or low 5-HTT-expression, were included in a double-blind study. A submaximal-effort tourniquet test was used to provide a standardized degree of conditioning ischemic pain. Individualized noxious heat and pressure pain thresholds (PPTs) were used as subjective test-modalities and the nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) was used to provide an objective neurophysiological window into spinal processing. RESULTS: The low, as compared to the high, 5-HTT-expressing group exhibited significantly reduced CPM-mediated pain inhibition for PPTs (p = 0.02) and heat-pain (p = 0.02). The CPM-mediated inhibition of the NFR, gauged by increases in NFR-threshold, did not differ significantly between groups (p = 0.75). Inhibition of PPTs and heat-pain were correlated (Spearman's rho = 0.35, p = 0.02), whereas the NFR-threshold increase was not significantly correlated with degree of inhibition of these subjectively reported modalities. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the involvement of the tri-allelic 5-HTTLPR genotype in explaining clinically relevant inter-individual differences in pain perception and regulation. Our results also illustrate that shifts in NFR-thresholds do not necessarily correlate to the modulation of experienced pain. We discuss various possible mechanisms underlying these findings and suggest a role of regulation of 5-HT receptors along the neuraxis as a function of differential 5-HTT-expression

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

The evolution of North Pacific climate since the late Miocene

A lack of paleo-proxy data has made it difficult to determine the mechanisms responsible for the warm climates of the late Miocene and early Pliocene. Though modeling work suggests that the global distribution of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the depth of the global thermocline may have been important to maintaining past warm climates, paleoceanographic data is needed to test these ideas. This dissertation uses geochemical proxy reconstructions of SST, thermocline depth, and precipitation from North Pacific sediments to test the role that the oceans played in shaping late Miocene and Pliocene climates. Chapter 2 uses alkenone paleothermometry and d18O of planktonic foraminifera to show that the SSTs of the mid-latitude North Pacific ~13-5 Ma were decoupled from atmospheric pCO2, possibly due to a deeper-than-modern global thermocline. The data indicates that thermocline shoaling after ~5 Ma, possibly related to changes in ocean basin shape, led to a stronger coupling between SSTs and atmospheric pCO2 in more recent epochs. Chapter 3 uses new alkenone and Mg/Ca SSTs with published SST estimates to test the importance of SST gradients in the warm late Miocene and early Pliocene. Kriging of SST data was used to construct maps of late Miocene, Pliocene, and Pleistocene time-slices. The results, which show that basin-wide SST gradients were weak (relative to modern) in the early Pliocene but even weaker during the late Miocene, support the hypothesis that weak SST gradients contributed to warm global temperatures. Chapter 4 assesses the utility of the dDn-alkanes in marine sediments as a proxy of precipitation on the continents. Ground-truthing of California Margin core tops indicated that dDn-alkanes from southern California Margin sediments are suitable for down-core reconstructions of past precipitation. Additionally, a low-resolution dDn-alkanes record generated for this study showed that the establishment of the modern mediterranean climate in southern California might have resulted from the SST changes described in Chapters 2 and 3. Overall, this dissertation shows that reconstructions of past oceanographic and climate conditions of the North Pacific support the hypothesis that SST gradients played a major role in shaping the warm climates of the early Pliocene and late Miocene

Mg/Ca ratio of Globorotalia tumida and subsurface temperature reconstruction for ODP Site 130-806

The tropical Pacific thermocline strength, depth, and tilt are critical to tropical mean state and variability. During the early Pliocene (~3.5 to 4.5 Ma), the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) thermocline was deeper and the cold tongue was warmer than today, which resulted in an mean state with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient, or El Padre. However, it is unclear whether the deep thermocline was a local feature of the EEP or a basin-wide condition with global implications. Our measurements of Mg/Ca of Globorotalia tumida in a western equatorial Pacific site indicate Pliocene subsurface temperatures warmer than today; thus, El Padre included a basin-wide thermocline that was relatively warm, deep, and weakly tilted. At ~4 Ma, thermocline steepening was coupled to cooling of the cold tongue. Since ~4 Ma, the basin-wide thermocline cooled/shoaled gradually, with implications for thermocline feedbacks in tropical dynamics and the interpretation of TEX86-derived temperatures

A high-resolution record from IODP Site 323-U1440

Millennial-scale climate events in the North Pacific are thought to be related to changes in the circulation of North Pacific Intermediate Water, which may have formed in the Bering Sea in the past. To advance our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie millennial-scale events, Bering Sea sediment cores from the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program site U1340 were used to construct high-resolution, multiproxy climate records of the last 90,000 years. Sediment density records show millennial-scale events resembling Dansgaard-Oeschger events, several of which are laminated. Interstadials were characterized by 3–5 °C warming, increased productivity driven by upwelling, and reduced benthic oxygenation. Bering Sea intermediate water also changed over longer timescales; our records show the presence of intermediate water with lower salinity and higher oxygen content than modern beginning around 60 ka and persisting until the beginning of the deglaciation. The Bølling-Allerød was characterized by high productivity, laminated sediments, and strong denitrification signature. Our data support the idea that productivity-derived changes in oxygenation at intermediate water source regions may have contributed to the intensification of the North Pacific–wide oxygen minima during the Bølling-Allerød