Analysis of global routine immunisation coverage shows disruption and stagnation during the first two-years of the COVID-19 pandemic with tentative recovery in 2022

Whilst it is now widely recognised that routine immunisation (RI) was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and further so in 2021, the extent of continued interruptions in 2022 and/or rebounds to previous trends remains unclear. We modelled country-specific RI trends using validated estimates of national coverage from the World Health Organisation and United Nation Children's Fund for 182 countries (accounting for > 97% of children globally), to project expected diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis-containing vaccine first-dose (DTP1), third-dose (DTP3) and measles-containing vaccine first-dose (MCV1) coverage for 2020-2022 based on pre-pandemic trends (from 2000 to 2019). We provide further evidence of peak pandemic immunisation disruption in 2021, followed by tentative recovery in 2022. We report a 3.4% (95 %CI: [2.5%; 4.4%]) decline in global DTP3 coverage in 2021 compared to 2000-2019 trends, from an expected 89.8% to reported 86.4%. This coverage gap reduced to a 2.7% (95 %CI: [1.8%; 3.6%]) decline in 2022, with reported coverage rising to 87.2%. Similar results were seen for DTP1 and MCV1. Whilst partial rebounds are encouraging, global coverage decline translates to a 17-year setback in RI to 2005 levels, and the majority of countries retain coverage at or lower than pre-pandemic levels. The Americas, Africa, and Asia were the most impacted regions; and low- and middle-income countries the most affected income groups. The number of annual Zero Dose (ZD) children - indicating those receiving no immunisations - increased from 12.1 million (M) globally in 2019 to a peak of 16.7 M in 2021, then reduced to 13.1 M in 2022. Overall, we estimate an excess of 8.8 M ZD children cumulatively in 2020-2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels. This work can be used as an objective baseline to inform future interventions to prioritise and target interventions, and facilitate catch-up of growing populations of under- and un-immunised children

An Eigenvalue test for spatial principal component analysis

Background: The spatial Principal Component Analysis (sPCA, Jombart (Heredity 101:92-103, 2008) is designed to investigate non-random spatial distributions of genetic variation. Unfortunately, the associated tests used for assessing the existence of spatial patterns (global and local test; (Heredity 101:92-103, 2008) lack statistical power and may fail to reveal existing spatial patterns. Here, we present a non-parametric test for the significance of specific patterns recovered by sPCA. Results: We compared the performance of this new test to the original global and local tests using datasets simulated under classical population genetic models. Results show that our test outperforms the original global and local tests, exhibiting improved statistical power while retaining similar, and reliable type I errors. Moreover, by allowing to test various sets of axes, it can be used to guide the selection of retained sPCA components. Conclusions: As such, our test represents a valuable complement to the original analysis, and should prove useful for the investigation of spatial genetic patterns.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Non-random distribution of azole resistance across the global population of Aspergillus fumigatus

The emergence of azole resistance in the pathogenic fungus Aspergillus fumigatus has continued to increase, with the dominant resistance mechanisms, consisting of a 34-nucleotide tandem repeat (TR34)/L98H and TR46/Y121F/T289A, now showing a structured global distribution. Using hierarchical clustering and multivariate analysis of 4,049 A. fumigatus isolates collected worldwide and genotyped at nine microsatellite loci using analysis of short tandem repeats of A. fumigatus (STRAf), we show that A. fumigatus can be subdivided into two broad clades and that cyp51A alleles TR34/L98H and TR46/Y121F/T289A are unevenly distributed across these two populations. Diversity indices show that azole-resistant isolates are genetically depauperate compared to their wild-type counterparts, compatible with selective sweeps accompanying the selection of beneficial mutations. Strikingly, we found that azole-resistant clones with identical microsatellite profiles were globally distributed and sourced from both clinical and environmental locations, confirming that azole resistance is an international public health concern. Our work provides a framework for the analysis of A. fumigatus isolates based on their microsatellite profile, which we have incorporated into a freely available, user-friendly R Shiny application (AfumID) that provides clinicians and researchers with a method for the fast, automated characterization of A. fumigatus genetic relatedness. Our study highlights the effect that azole drug resistance is having on the genetic diversity of A. fumigatus and emphasizes its global importance upon this medically important pathogenic fungus. IMPORTANCE Azole drug resistance in the human-pathogenic fungus Aspergillus fumigatus continues to emerge, potentially leading to untreatable aspergillosis in immunosuppressed hosts. Two dominant, environmentally associated resistance mechanisms, which are thought to have evolved through selection by the agricultural application of azole fungicides, are now distributed globally. Understanding the effect that azole resistance is having on the genetic diversity and global population of A. fumigatus will help mitigate drug-resistant aspergillosis and maintain the azole class of fungicides for future use in both medicine and crop protection

apex: phylogenetics with multiple genes.

Genetic sequences of multiple genes are becoming increasingly common for a wide range of organisms including viruses, bacteria and eukaryotes. While such data may sometimes be treated as a single locus, in practice, a number of biological and statistical phenomena can lead to phylogenetic incongruence. In such cases, different loci should, at least as a preliminary step, be examined and analysed separately. The r software has become a popular platform for phylogenetics, with several packages implementing distance-based, parsimony and likelihood-based phylogenetic reconstruction, and an even greater number of packages implementing phylogenetic comparative methods. Unfortunately, basic data structures and tools for analysing multiple genes have so far been lacking, thereby limiting potential for investigating phylogenetic incongruence. In this study, we introduce the new r package apex to fill this gap. apex implements new object classes, which extend existing standards for storing DNA and amino acid sequences, and provides a number of convenient tools for handling, visualizing and analysing these data. In this study, we introduce the main features of the package and illustrate its functionalities through the analysis of a simple data set

Regional Genetic Structure in the Aquatic Macrophyte Ruppia cirrhosa Suggests Dispersal by Waterbirds

The evolutionary history of the genus Ruppia has been shaped by hybridization, polyploidisation and vicariance that have resulted in a problematic taxonomy. Recent studies provided insight into species circumscription, organelle takeover by hybridization, and revealed the importance of verifying species identification to avoid distorting effects of mixing different species, when estimating population connectivity. In the present study, we use microsatellite markers to determine population diversity and connectivity patterns in Ruppia cirrhosa including two spatial scales: (1) from the Atlantic Iberian coastline in Portugal to the Siculo-Tunisian Strait in Sicily and (2) within the Iberian Peninsula comprising the Atlantic-Mediterranean transition. The higher diversity in the Mediterranean Sea suggests that populations have had longer persistence there, suggesting a possible origin and/or refugial area for the species. The high genotypic diversities highlight the importance of sexual reproduction for survival and maintenance of populations. Results revealed a regional population structure matching a continent-island model, with strong genetic isolation and low gene flow between populations. This population structure could be maintained by waterbirds, acting as occasional dispersal vectors. This information elucidates ecological strategies of brackish plant species in coastal lagoons, suggesting mechanisms used by this species to colonize new isolated habitats and dominate brackish aquatic macrophyte systems, yet maintaining strong genetic structure suggestive of very low dispersal.Fundacao para a Cincia e Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) [PTDC/MAR/119363/2010, BIODIVERSA/0004/2015, UID/Multi/04326/2013]Pew FoundationSENECA FoundationMurcia Government, Spain [11881/PI/09]FCT Investigator Programme-Career Development [IF/00998/2014]Spanish Ministry of Education [AP2008-01209]European Community [00399/2012]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Wandering behaviour prevents inter and intra oceanic speciation in a coastal pelagic fish

Small pelagic fishes have the ability to disperse over long distances and may present complex evolutionary histories. Here, Old World Anchovies (OWA) were used as a model system to understand genetic patterns and connectivity of fish between the Atlantic and Pacific basins. We surveyed 16 locations worldwide using mtDNA and 8 microsatellite loci for genetic parameters, and mtDNA (cyt b; 16S) and nuclear (RAG1; RAG2) regions for dating major lineage-splitting events within Engraulidae family. The OWA genetic divergences (0-0.4%) are compatible with intra-specific divergence, showing evidence of both ancient and contemporary admixture between the Pacific and Atlantic populations, enhanced by high asymmetrical migration from the Pacific to the Atlantic. The estimated divergence between Atlantic and Pacific anchovies (0.67 [0.53-0.80] Ma) matches a severe drop of sea temperature during the Gunz glacial stage of the Pleistocene. Our results support an alternative evolutionary scenario for the OWA, suggesting a coastal migration along south Asia, Middle East and eastern Africa continental platforms, followed by the colonization of the Atlantic via the Cape of the Good Hope.Portuguese Foundation for Science & Technology (FCT) [SFRH/BD/36600/2007]; FCT [UID/MAR/04292/2013, SFRH/BPD/65830/2009]; FCT strategic plan [UID/Multi/04326/2013]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals

BACKGROUND: The serial interval is a key epidemiological measure that quantifies the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector-infectee pair. It indicates how quickly new generations of cases appear, thus informing on the speed of an epidemic. Estimating the serial interval requires to identify pairs of infectors and infectees. Yet, most studies fail to assess the direction of transmission between cases and assume that the order of infections - and thus transmissions - strictly follows the order of symptom onsets, thereby imposing serial intervals to be positive. Because of the long and highly variable incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, this may not always be true (i.e an infectee may show symptoms before their infector) and negative serial intervals may occur. This study aims to estimate the serial interval of different SARS-CoV-2 variants whilst accounting for negative serial intervals. METHODS: This analysis included 5 842 symptomatic individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst 2 579 households from September 2020 to August 2022 across England & Wales. We used a Bayesian framework to infer who infected whom by exploring all transmission trees compatible with the observed dates of symptoms, based on a wide range of incubation period and generation time distributions compatible with estimates reported in the literature. Serial intervals were derived from the reconstructed transmission pairs, stratified by variants. RESULTS: We estimated that 22% (95% credible interval (CrI) 8-32%) of serial interval values are negative across all VOC. The mean serial interval was shortest for Omicron BA5 (2.02 days, 1.26-2.84) and longest for Alpha (3.37 days, 2.52-4.04). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the large proportion of negative serial intervals across SARS-CoV-2 variants. Because the serial interval is widely used to estimate transmissibility and forecast cases, these results may have critical implications for epidemic control

Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection

Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems