The PRIMO FORTE framework for good governance in public, private and civic organisations : an analysis on small EU states

Purpose: In this article we lay out and discuss a framework proposed by the Public Risk Management Organisation (PRIMO) (https://www.primo-europe.eu/) of which the authors are board members and the results of a test on public and private entities of EU small jurisdictions, specifically Malta, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Cyprus. These are countries within the EU having less than 3 million people population. Design/methodology/approach: We collected our primary data by using a semi-structured questionnaire and administering it to participants who are working directly or indirectly with entities within these EU states. The questionnaire was structured using the FORTETM acronym as themes, ‘Financial and compliant design’, ‘Object orientation and delivery’, ‘Responsibility and stewardship’, ‘Tools and processes for creation’ and ‘Environmental awareness and interaction’, with 5 statements under each theme to which participants were required to answer using a 5-point Likert-scale ranging from “Strongly Disagree” to “Strongly Agree”. We, however, allowed the participants to open up and discuss each statement and recorded these comments. Some demographic data was also collected as to the type of entity the participants are working with, the level of expertise on governance of the participant and the size of the entity. The quantitative data was subjected to statistical analysis while the results from the open ended question was analysed using the Thematic approach. Findings: Factor analysis provided support for the FORTE Good Governance model for both the Private and Public entities, no-matter if they are small or large. Originality/value: The study provides a better understanding and supports the FORTE Model established by PRIMO-Europe, after approximately 15 years of collecting data on public risks and for the first time tests it on both Private and Public entities, in large and small firms in small EU Jurisdictions. Moreover, this model contributed to the vast literature on models of risk management within organisations, but was not validated empirically for reliability of the factors, and on small jurisdictions. Therefore, the significance and importance of such a study lies firstly on the premise that testing on small countries, can be deemed as small laboratories for more complex politics, regulations and policies of larger countries.peer-reviewe

Multiscale analysis of pattern formation via intercellular signalling

Lateral inhibition, a juxtacrine signalling mechanism by which a cell adopting a particular fate inhibits neighbouring cells from doing likewise, has been shown to be a robust mechanism for the formation of fine-grained spatial patterns (in which adjacent cells in developing tissues diverge to achieve contrasting states of differentiation), provided that there is sufficiently strong feedback. The fine-grained nature of these patterns poses problems for analysis via traditional continuum methods since these require that significant variation takes place only over lengthscales much larger than an individual cell and such systems have therefore been investigated primarily using discrete methods. Here, however, we apply a multiscale method to derive systematically a continuum model from the discrete Delta-Notch signalling model of Collier \emph{et al.} (Pattern formation by lateral inhibition with feedback: a mathematical model of Delta-Notch intercellular signalling, \emph{J. Theor. Biol.}, 183, 1996, 429--446) under particular assumptions on the parameters, which we use to analyse the generation of fine-grained patterns. We show that, on the macroscale, the contact-dependent juxtacrine signalling interaction manifests itself as linear diffusion, motivating the use of reaction-diffusion-based models for such cell-signalling systems. We also analyse the travelling-wave behaviour of our system, obtaining good quantitative agreement with the discrete system

The isolation of spatial patterning modes in a mathematical model of juxtacrine cell signalling

Juxtacrine signalling mechanisms are known to be crucial in tissue and organ development, leading to spatial patterns in gene expression. We investigate the patterning behaviour of a discrete model of juxtacrine cell signalling due to Owen \& Sherratt (\emph{Math. Biosci.}, 1998, {\bf 153}(2):125--150) in which ligand molecules, unoccupied receptors and bound ligand-receptor complexes are modelled. Feedback between the ligand and receptor production and the level of bound receptors is incorporated. By isolating two parameters associated with the feedback strength and employing numerical simulation, linear stability and bifurcation analysis, the pattern-forming behaviour of the model is analysed under regimes corresponding to lateral inhibition and induction. Linear analysis of this model fails to capture the patterning behaviour exhibited in numerical simulations. Via bifurcation analysis we show that, since the majority of periodic patterns fold subcritically from the homogeneous steady state, a wide variety of stable patterns exists at a given parameter set, providing an explanation for this failure. The dominant pattern is isolated via numerical simulation. Additionally, by sampling patterns of non-integer wavelength on a discrete mesh, we highlight a disparity between the continuous and discrete representations of signalling mechanisms: in the continuous case, patterns of arbitrary wavelength are possible, while sampling such patterns on a discrete mesh leads to longer wavelength harmonics being selected where the wavelength is rational; in the irrational case, the resulting aperiodic patterns exhibit `local periodicity', being constructed from distorted stable shorter-wavelength patterns. This feature is consistent with experimentally observed patterns, which typically display approximate short-range periodicity with defects

The impact of a new high-resolution ocean model on the Met Office North-West European Shelf forecasting system

The North-West European Shelf ocean forecasting system has been providing oceanographic products for the European continental shelf seas for more than 15 years. In that time, several different configurations have been implemented, updating the model and the data assimilation components. The latest configuration to be put in operation, an eddy-resolving model at 1.5 km (AMM15), replaces the 7 km model (AMM7) that has been used for 8 years to deliver forecast products to the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service and its precursor projects. This has improved the ability to resolve the mesoscale variability in this area. An overview of this new system and its initial validation is provided in this paper, highlighting the differences with the previous version. Validation of the model with data assimilation is based on the results of 2 years (2016–2017) of trial experiments run with the low- and high-resolution systems in their operational configuration. The 1.5 km system has been validated against observations and the low-resolution system, trying to understand the impact of the high resolution on the quality of the products delivered to the users. Although the number of observations is a limiting factor, especially for the assessment of model variables like currents and salinity, the new system has been proven to be an improvement in resolving fine-scale structures and variability and provides more accurate information on the major physical variables, like temperature, salinity, and horizontal currents. AMM15 improvements are evident from the validation against high-resolution observations, available in some selected areas of the model domain. However, validation at the basin scale and using daily means penalized the high-resolution system and does not reflect its superior performance. This increment in resolution also improves the capabilities to provide marine information closer to the coast even if the coastal processes are not fully resolved by the model

Climate-driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean can greatly reduce the circulation of the North Sea

We demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate‐driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf‐seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea, and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st Century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2‐1.3Sv (1Sv=106 m3s‐1) to 0.0‐0.6Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure, and to a newly identified circulation‐salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide‐ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication

Parameter estimation in fluorescence recovery after photobleaching: Quantitative analysis of protein binding reactions and diffusion

Fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) is a common experimental method for investigating rates of molecular redistribution in biological systems. Many mathematical models of FRAP have been developed, the purpose of which is usually the estimation of certain biological parameters such as the diffu-sivity and chemical reaction rates of a protein, this being accomplished by fitting the model to experimental data. In this article, we consider a two species reaction-diffusion FRAP model. Using asymptotic analysis, we derive new FRAP recovery curve approximation formulae, and formally re-derive existing ones. On the basis of these formulae, invoking the concept of Fisher information, we predict, in terms of biological and experimental parameters, sufficient conditions to ensure that the values all model parameters can be estimated from data. We verify our predictions with extensive computational simulations. We also use computational methods to investigate cases in which some or all biological parameters are theoretically inestimable. In these cases, we propose methods which can be used to extract the maximum possible amount of information from the FRAP data

Spitzer mid-infrared spectroscopy of compact symmetric objects: What powers radio-loud active galactic nuclei?

We present low- and high-resolution mid-infrared (mid-IR) spectra and photometry for eight compact symmetric objects (CSOs) taken with the Infrared Spectrograph on the Spitzer Space Telescope. The hosts of these young, powerful radio galaxies show significant diversity in their mid-IR spectra. This includes multiple atomic fine-structure lines, H2 gas, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emission, warm dust from T = 50 to 150 K, and silicate features in both emission and absorption. There is no evidence in the mid-IR of a single template for CSO hosts, but 5/8 galaxies show similar moderate levels of star formation (<10 M_sun/yr from PAH emission) and silicate dust in a clumpy torus. The total amount of extinction ranges from A_V ~ 10 to 30, and the high-ionization [Ne V] 14.3 and 24.3 um transitions are not detected for any galaxy in the sample. Almost all CSOs show contributions both from star formation and active galactic nuclei (AGNs), suggesting that they occupy a continuum between pure starbursts and AGNs. This is consistent with the hypothesis that radio galaxies are created following a galactic merger; the timing of the radio activity onset means that contributions to the IR luminosity from both merger-induced star formation and the central AGN are likely. Bondi accretion is capable of powering the radio jets for almost all CSOs in the sample; the lack of [Ne V] emission suggests an advection-dominated accretion flow mode as a possible candidate. Merging black holes (BHs) with M_BH > 10^8 M_sun likely exist in all of the CSOs in the sample; however, there is no direct evidence from these data that BH spin energy is being tapped as an alternative mode for powering the radio jets.Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures; published in Ap