Interwell connectivity analysis in a low-permeability formation using a modified Capacitance Model with application to the East Pembina Field, Cardium Formation, Alberta

From the 1950s to the present, the Cardium Formation has been extensively produced. Exploitation has moved from the high-permeability western areas to very heterogeneous lower permeability, “halo-oil” regions in the east. In this case study, we briefly summarize the geology and assess the degree of interwell communication in selected areas from the East Pembina Field. For the Interwell Connectivity (IWC) evaluation, we use a modified version of the Capacitance Model (CM-PW) for connectivity analysis in areal windows. The CM has been used to analyze flow rates to measure IWC. The direction of the largest IWC change agrees with the expected maximum stress direction in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. The model also captures differences between pre- and post-fracturing connectivities. The matches of predicted to measured production using the CM-PW are fair to good, 0.76 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.95

Accounting Hall of Fame 1998 induction: Arthur Ramer Wyatt

For Arthur Ramer Wyatt\u27s Induction, there were: Remarks by Donald E. Kieso, Northern Illinois University; Remarks by Jerry J. Weygandt, University of Wisconsin; Citation written by Daniel L. Jensen, The Ohio State University read by Donald E. Kieso and Jerry J. Weygandt; Response by Arthur R. Wyatt, Arthur Andersen & Co., retired, and University of Illinois

CO2 SEQUESTRATION POTENTIAL OF TEXAS LOW-RANK COALS

The objectives of this project are to evaluate the feasibility of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) sequestration in Texas low-rank coals and to determine the potential for enhanced coalbed methane (CBM) recovery as an added benefit of sequestration. The main objectives for this reporting period were to work on Tasks 1 and 2, which consisted of the following subtasks: review literature on CO{sub 2} sequestration and the effect of CO{sub 2} injection on methane production from coalbeds; acquire information on power plant flue gas emissions; acquire data on Texas coal occurrences and properties and formation water quality; construct a digital base map; and select geographic areas and geologic formations for study. Flue gas information, including volumes and compositions, were obtained for major Texas power plants and other industrial sources, such as cement plants. We evaluated and obtained computer mapping software and began building a digital base map that will be used to depict industrial emissions, coal occurrence, and water quality information. Digital data sets allow us to superpose data for visualization and for assessment of CO{sub 2}sequestration issues

CO2 Sequestration Potential of Texas Low-Rank Coals

The objectives of this project are to evaluate the feasibility of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) sequestration in Texas low-rank coals and to determine the potential for enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) recovery as an added benefit of sequestration. In this reporting period we revised all of the economic calculations, participated in technology transfer of project results, and began working on project closeout tasks in anticipation of the project ending December 31, 2005. In this research, we conducted five separate simulation investigations, or cases. These cases are (1) CO{sub 2} sequestration base case scenarios for 4,000-ft and 6,200-ft depth coal beds in the Lower Calvert Bluff Formation of east-central Texas, (2) sensitivity study of the effects of well spacing on sequestration, (3) sensitivity study of the effects of injection gas composition, (4) sensitivity study of the effects of injection rate, and (5) sensitivity study of the effects of coal dewatering prior to CO{sub 2} injection/sequestration. Results show that, in most cases, revenue from coalbed methane production does not completely offset the costs of CO{sub 2} sequestration in Texas low-rank coals, indicating that CO{sub 2} injection is not economically feasible for the ranges of gas prices and carbon credits investigated. The best economic performance is obtained with flue gas (13% CO{sub 2} - 87% N{sub 2}) injection, as compared to injection of 100% CO{sub 2} and a mixture of 50% CO{sub 2} and 50% N{sub 2}. As part of technology transfer for this project, we presented results at the West Texas Geological Society Fall Symposium in October 2005 and at the COAL-SEQ Forum in November 2005

Interwell Connectivity and Diagnosis Using Correlation of Production and Injection Rate Data in Hydrocarbon Production

This report details progress and results on inferring interwell communication from well rate fluctuations. Starting with the procedure of Albertoni and Lake (2003) as a foundation, the goal of the project was to develop further procedures to infer reservoir properties through weights derived from correlations between injection and production rates. A modified method, described in Yousef and others (2006a,b), and herein referred to as the 'capacitance model', is the primary product of this research project. The capacitance model (CM) produces two quantities, {lambda} and {tau}, for each injector-producer well pair. For the CM, we have focused on the following items: (1) Methods to estimate {lambda} and {tau} from simulated and field well rates. The original method uses both non-linear and linear regression and lacks the ability to include constraints on {lambda} and {tau}. The revised method uses only non-linear regression, permitting constraints to be included as well as accelerating the solution so that problems with large numbers of wells are more tractable. (2) Approaches to integrate {lambda} and {tau} to improve connectivity evaluations. Interpretations have been developed using Lorenz-style and log-log plots to assess heterogeneity. Testing shows the interpretations can identify whether interwell connectivity is controlled by flow through fractures, high-permeability layers, or due to partial completion of wells. Applications to the South Wasson and North Buck Draw Fields show promising results. (3) Optimization of waterflood injection rates using the CM and a power law relationship for watercut to maximize economic return. Tests using simulated data and a range of oil prices show the approach is working. (4) Investigation of methods to increase the robustness of {lambda} and {tau} estimates. Human interventions, such as workovers, also cause rate fluctuations and can be misinterpreted by the model if bottom hole pressure data are not available. A revised method, called the 'segmented capacitance model', identifies times when production changes might not be caused strictly by water injection changes. Application to data from Monument Butte Field shows encouraging results. Our results show the CM and its modified forms can be an important tool for waterflood management. We have moved beyond the proof of principle stage to show it can actually be applied to assess connectivity in field situations. Several shortcomings, however, remain to be addressed before the CM can be routinely applied by field operators. The CM and its modifications analyze well rates in the time domain. We also explored the assessment of interwell connectivity in the spectral domain. We applied conventional methods, based on analyzing passive linear electrical networks, to the analysis of injection and production data. In particular, we assessed the effects of near-wellbore gas on the apparent connectivity. With only oil and water in the system, the results were as expected, giving good connectivity estimates. In the presence of gas, however, the methods could not produce useful estimates of connectivity

Parallel symbolic state-space exploration is difficult, but what is the alternative?

State-space exploration is an essential step in many modeling and analysis problems. Its goal is to find the states reachable from the initial state of a discrete-state model described. The state space can used to answer important questions, e.g., "Is there a dead state?" and "Can N become negative?", or as a starting point for sophisticated investigations expressed in temporal logic. Unfortunately, the state space is often so large that ordinary explicit data structures and sequential algorithms cannot cope, prompting the exploration of (1) parallel approaches using multiple processors, from simple workstation networks to shared-memory supercomputers, to satisfy large memory and runtime requirements and (2) symbolic approaches using decision diagrams to encode the large structured sets and relations manipulated during state-space generation. Both approaches have merits and limitations. Parallel explicit state-space generation is challenging, but almost linear speedup can be achieved; however, the analysis is ultimately limited by the memory and processors available. Symbolic methods are a heuristic that can efficiently encode many, but not all, functions over a structured and exponentially large domain; here the pitfalls are subtler: their performance varies widely depending on the class of decision diagram chosen, the state variable order, and obscure algorithmic parameters. As symbolic approaches are often much more efficient than explicit ones for many practical models, we argue for the need to parallelize symbolic state-space generation algorithms, so that we can realize the advantage of both approaches. This is a challenging endeavor, as the most efficient symbolic algorithm, Saturation, is inherently sequential. We conclude by discussing challenges, efforts, and promising directions toward this goal

Pediatric renal transplantation under tacrolimus-based immunosuppression

Background. Tacrolimus has been used as a primary immunosuppressive agent in adult and pediatric renal transplant recipients, with reasonable outcomes. Methods. Between December 14, 1989 and December 31, 1996, 82 pediatric renal transplantations alone were performed under tacrolimus-based immunosuppression without induction anti-lymphocyte antibody therapy. Patients undergoing concomitant or prior liver and/or intestinal transplantation were not included in the analysis. The mean recipient age was 10.6±5.2 years (range: 0.7-17.9). Eighteen (22%) cases were repeat transplantations, and 6 (7%) were in patients with panel-reactive antibody levels over 40%. Thirty-four (41%) cases were with living donors, and 48 (59%) were with cadaveric donors. The mean donor age was 27.3±14.6 years (range: 0.7-50), and the mean cold ischemia time in the cadaveric cases was 26.5±8.8 hr. The mean number of HLA matches and mismatches was 2.8±1.2 and 2.9±1.3; there were five (6%) O-Ag mismatches. The mean follow-up was 4.0±0.2 years. Results. The 1- and 4-year actuarial patient survival was 99% and 94%. The 1- and 4-year actuarial graft survival was 98% and 84%. The mean serum creatinine was 1.1±0.5 mg/all, and the corresponding calculated creatinine clearance was 88±25 ml/min/1.73 m2. A total of 66% of successfully transplanted patients were withdrawn from prednisone. In children who were withdrawn from steroids, the mean standard deviation height scores (Z-score) at the time of transplantation and at 1 and 4 years were - 2.3±2.0, -1.7±1.0, and +0.36±1.5. Eighty-six percent of successfully transplanted patients were not taking anti-hypertensive medications. The incidence of acute rejection was 44%; between December 1989 and December 1993, it was 63%, and between January 1994 and December 1996, it was 23% (P=0.0003). The incidence of steroid-resistant rejection was 5%. The incidence of delayed graft function was 5%, and 2% of patients required dialysis within 1 week of transplantation. The incidence of cytomegalovirus was 13%; between December 1989 and December 1992, it was 17%, and between January 1993 and December 1996, it was 12%. The incidence of early Epstein- Barr virus-related posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD) was 9%; between December 1989 and December 1992, it was 17%, and between January 1993 and December 1996, it was 4%. All of the early PTLD cases were treated successfully with temporary cessation of immunosuppression and institution of antiviral therapy, without patient or graft loss. Conclusions. These data demonstrate the short- and medium-term efficacy of tacrolimus-based immunosuppression in pediatric renal transplant recipients, with reasonable patient and graft survival, routine achievement of steroid and anti- hypertensive medication withdrawal, gratifying increases in growth, and, with further experience, a decreasing incidence of both rejection and PTLD

Superhumps in Cataclysmic Binaries. XXIV. Twenty More Dwarf Novae

We report precise measures of the orbital and superhump period in twenty more dwarf novae. For ten stars, we report new and confirmed spectroscopic periods - signifying the orbital period P_o - as well as the superhump period P_sh. These are GX Cas, HO Del, HS Vir, BC UMa, RZ Leo, KV Dra, KS UMa, TU Crt, QW Ser, and RZ Sge. For the remaining ten, we report a medley of P_o and P_sh measurements from photometry; most are new, with some confirmations of previous values. These are KV And, LL And, WX Cet, MM Hya, AO Oct, V2051 Oph, NY Ser, KK Tel, HV Vir, and RX J1155.4-5641. Periods, as usual, can be measured to high accuracy, and these are of special interest since they carry dynamical information about the binary. We still have not quite learned how to read the music, but a few things are clear. The fractional superhump excess epsilon [=(P_sh-P_o)/P_o] varies smoothly with P_o. The scatter of the points about that smooth curve is quite low, and can be used to limit the intrinsic scatter in M_1, the white dwarf mass, and the mass-radius relation of the secondary. The dispersion in M_1 does not exceed 24%, and the secondary-star radii scatter by no more than 11% from a fixed mass-radius relation. For the well-behaved part of epsilon(P_o) space, we estimate from superhump theory that the secondaries are 18+-6% larger than theoretical ZAMS stars. This affects some other testable predictions about the secondaries: at a fixed P_o, it suggests that the secondaries are (compared with ZAMS predictions) 40+-14% less massive, 12+-4% smaller, 19+-6% cooler, and less luminous by a factor 2.5(7). The presence of a well-defined mass-radius relation, reflected in a well-defined epsilon(P_o) relation, strongly limits effects of nuclear evolution in the secondaries.Comment: PDF, 62 pages, 7 tables, 21 figures; accepted, in press, to appear November 2003, PASP; more info at http://cba.phys.columbia.edu

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London