An exploration of the use of simple statistics to measure consensus and stability in Delphi studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The criteria for stopping Delphi studies are often subjective. This study aimed to examine whether consensus and stability in the Delphi process can be ascertained by descriptive evaluation of trends in participants' views.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A three round email-based Delphi required participants (n = 12) to verify their level of agreement with 8 statements, write comments on each if they considered it necessary and rank the statements for importance. Each statement was analysed quantitatively by the percentage of agreement ratings, importance rankings and the amount of comments made for each statement, and qualitatively using thematic analysis. Importance rankings between rounds were compared by calculating Kappa values to observe trends in how the process impacts on subject's views.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Evolution of consensus was shown by increase in agreement percentages, convergence of range with standard deviations of importance ratings, and a decrease in the number of comments made. Stability was demonstrated by a trend of increasing Kappa values.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Following the original use of Delphi in social sciences, Delphi is suggested to be an effective way to gain and measure group consensus in healthcare. However, the proposed analytical process should be followed to ensure maximum validity of results in Delphi methodology for improved evidence of consensual decision-making.</p

IFITM3 Inhibits Influenza A Virus Infection by Preventing Cytosolic Entry

To replicate, viruses must gain access to the host cell's resources. Interferon (IFN) regulates the actions of a large complement of interferon effector genes (IEGs) that prevent viral replication. The interferon inducible transmembrane protein family members, IFITM1, 2 and 3, are IEGs required for inhibition of influenza A virus, dengue virus, and West Nile virus replication in vitro. Here we report that IFN prevents emergence of viral genomes from the endosomal pathway, and that IFITM3 is both necessary and sufficient for this function. Notably, viral pseudoparticles were inhibited from transferring their contents into the host cell cytosol by IFN, and IFITM3 was required and sufficient for this action. We further demonstrate that IFN expands Rab7 and LAMP1-containing structures, and that IFITM3 overexpression is sufficient for this phenotype. Moreover, IFITM3 partially resides in late endosomal and lysosomal structures, placing it in the path of invading viruses. Collectively our data are consistent with the prediction that viruses that fuse in the late endosomes or lysosomes are vulnerable to IFITM3's actions, while viruses that enter at the cell surface or in the early endosomes may avoid inhibition. Multiple viruses enter host cells through the late endocytic pathway, and many of these invaders are attenuated by IFN. Therefore these findings are likely to have significance for the intrinsic immune system's neutralization of a diverse array of threats

An estimate of the number of tropical tree species

The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher’s alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between ∼40,000 and ∼53,000, i.e. at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of ∼19,000–25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of ∼4,500–6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa

Phylogenetic classification of the world's tropical forests

Knowledge about the biogeographic affinities of the world’s tropical forests helps to better understand regional differences in forest structure, diversity, composition, and dynamics. Such understanding will enable anticipation of region-specific responses to global environmental change. Modern phylogenies, in combination with broad coverage of species inventory data, now allow for global biogeographic analyses that take species evolutionary distance into account. Here we present a classification of the world’s tropical forests based on their phylogenetic similarity. We identify five principal floristic regions and their floristic relationships: (i) Indo-Pacific, (ii) Subtropical, (iii) African, (iv) American, and (v) Dry forests. Our results do not support the traditional neo- versus paleotropical forest division but instead separate the combined American and African forests from their Indo-Pacific counterparts. We also find indications for the existence of a global dry forest region, with representatives in America, Africa, Madagascar, and India. Additionally, a northern-hemisphere Subtropical forest region was identified with representatives in Asia and America, providing support for a link between Asian and American northern-hemisphere forests.</p

A Kinect-based movement assessment system: marker position comparison to Vicon

<p>Accurate movement analysis systems are prohibitive in cost and size to be accessible to the general population, while commercially available, affordable systems lack the accuracy needed for clinical relevance. To address these limitations, we developed a Depth Camera Movement Assessment System (DCMAS) featuring an affordable, widely available depth camera (e.g. Microsoft Kinect). After examining 3D position data for markers adhered to participants and a flat surface, captured with both DCMAS and the industry standard Vicon system, we demonstrated DCMAS obtained measurements comparable, within soft tissue artifact, to the Vicon system, paving the way for a breakthrough technology in preventative medicine.</p

Can Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment Build Cognitive Reserve and Learn Mindfulness Meditation? Qualitative Theme Analyses from a Small Pilot Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: High levels of chronic stress negatively impact the hippocampus and are associated with increased incidence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer\u27s disease. While mindfulness meditation may mitigate the effects of chronic stress, it is uncertain if adults with MCI have the capacity to learn mindfulness meditation. METHODS: 14 adults with MCI were randomized 2:1 to Mindfulness Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) or a wait-list control group. We conducted qualitative interviews with those who completed MBSR. Transcribed interviews were: a) coded using an emergent themes inductive approach informed by grounded theory; b) rated 0-10, with higher scores reflecting greater perceived benefit from, and understanding of, mindfulness meditation. Ratings were correlated with daily home practice times and baseline level of cognitive function. RESULTS: Seven themes emerged from the interviews: positive perceptions of class; development of mindfulness skills, including meta-cognition; importance of the group experience; enhanced well-being; shift in MCI perspective; decreased stress reactivity and increased relaxation; improvement in interpersonal skills. Ratings of perceived benefit and understanding ranged from 2-10 (mean = 7) and of 0-9.5 (mean = 6), respectively. Many participants experienced substantial benefit/understanding, some had moderate, and a few had minimal benefit/understanding. Understanding the key concepts of mindfulness was highly positively correlated with \u3e /=20 minutes/day of home practice (r = 0.90) but not with baseline cognitive function (r = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Most adults with MCI were able to learn mindfulness meditation and had improved MCI acceptance, self-efficacy, and social engagement. Cognitive reserve may be enhanced through a mindfulness meditation program even in patients with MCI

Delivery of iron-fortified yoghurt, through a dairy value chain program, increases hemoglobin concentration among children 24 to 59 months old in Northern Senegal: A cluster-randomized control trial

Background Innovative strategies are needed to enhance the nutritional impact of agriculture. Value chain approaches, which use supply chains to add value (usually economic) to products as they move from producers to consumers, can be used to increase access to nutritious foods and improve nutritional status. This study tested whether a dairy value chain could be used to distribute a micronutrient-fortified yoghurt (MNFY) (conditional upon the producer supplying a minimum amount of cow milk/day) to improve hemoglobin and reduce anemia among preschool children in a remote area in Northern Senegal. Methods A cluster randomized control trial was used to compare 204 children (24 to 59 months of age at baseline) from households who received the MNFY coupled to a behavior change communication (BCC) campaign focusing on anemia prevention to 245 children from a control group (receiving BCC only) after one year. Randomization was done at the level of the family concession (households from the same family) (n = 321). Eligible households had a child of the target age and were willing to deliver milk to the dairy factory. Changes in anemia and hemoglobin between groups were assessed using mixed regression models. Key findings Anemia prevalence was very high at baseline (80%) and dropped to close to 60% at endline, with no differences between intervention groups. Hemoglobin increased by 0.55 g/dL, 95%CI (0.27; 0.84) more in the intervention compared to the control group after one year, in models that controlled for potentially confounding factors. The impact was greater (0.72 g/dL, 95%CI (0.34; 1.12)) for boys, compared to girls (0.38 g/dL, 95%CI (-0.03; 0.80)). Conclusion The dairy value chain was a successful strategy to distribute MNFY among pastoralists in Northern Senegal, and increase Hb concentrations among their children. This study is one of the first proofs of concept showing that a nutrition-sensitive agriculture value chain approach can contribute to improved child nutrition in a remote pastoralist population