A generative inference framework for analysing patterns of cultural change in sparse population data with evidence for fashion trends in LBK culture

Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends

Analysis of Myogenic and Candidate Disease Biomarkers in FSHD Muscle Cells

The UMMS Wellstone Program is a foundation and NIH-funded cooperative research center focusing on identifying biomarkers for facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) to gain insight into the molecular pathology of the disease and to develop potential therapies. FSHD is characterized by progressive wasting of skeletal muscles, with weakness often initiating in facial muscles and muscles supporting the scapula and upper arms. While the genetics associated with FSHD are complex, the major form of the disease, FSHD1, is linked to contraction of the D4Z4 repeat region located at chromosome 4q. Recently, a transcript encoded at the distal end of the repeat region, Dux4-fl, normally expressed in embryonic stem cells and germ cells, was also detected in differentiated muscle cells and biopsies from FSHD subjects, giving rise to the hypothesis that DUX4-FL function contributes to muscle weakness. We established a repository of high quality, well-characterized primary and immortalized muscle cell strains from FSHD and control subjects in affected families to provide biomaterials for cell and molecular studies to the FSHD research community. qPCR and immunostaining analyses demonstrate similar growth and differentiation characteristics in cells from FSHD and control subjects within families. We detected Dux4-fl transcript and protein in FSHD cells as recently described; interestingly, we also detected Dux4-fl in muscle cells from a subset of control individuals, suggesting that any Dux4-fl-mediated myopathy would require additional modifying elements. Microarray analysis of FSHD and control muscle cells demonstrated that several genes were upregulated in FSHD cells, including genes that were concurrently identified as downstream targets of Dux4-fl and as candidate FSHD disease genes. Future studies will further characterize the RNA and protein expression of candidate disease genes in cells from FSHD and control subjects, including nonmanifesting subjects with the D4Z4 lesion but no muscle weakness, and utilizing whole transcriptome sequencing (RNAseq) to identify additional candidates

Social network analysis shows direct evidence for social transmission of tool use in wild chimpanzees

The authors are grateful to the Royal Zoological Society of Scotland for providing core funding for the Budongo Conservation Field Station. The fieldwork of CH was funded by the Leverhulme Trust, the Lucie Burgers Stichting, and the British Academy. TP was funded by the Canadian Research Chair in Continental Ecosystem Ecology, and received computational support from the Theoretical Ecosystem Ecology group at UQAR. The research leading to these results has received funding from the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) and from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) REA grant agreement n°329197 awarded to TG, ERC grant agreement n° 283871 awarded to KZ. WH was funded by a BBSRC grant (BB/I007997/1).Social network analysis methods have made it possible to test whether novel behaviors in animals spread through individual or social learning. To date, however, social network analysis of wild populations has been limited to static models that cannot precisely reflect the dynamics of learning, for instance, the impact of multiple observations across time. Here, we present a novel dynamic version of network analysis that is capable of capturing temporal aspects of acquisition-that is, how successive observations by an individual influence its acquisition of the novel behavior. We apply this model to studying the spread of two novel tool-use variants, "moss-sponging'' and "leaf-sponge re-use,'' in the Sonso chimpanzee community of Budongo Forest, Uganda. Chimpanzees are widely considered the most "cultural'' of all animal species, with 39 behaviors suspected as socially acquired, most of them in the domain of tool-use. The cultural hypothesis is supported by experimental data from captive chimpanzees and a range of observational data. However, for wild groups, there is still no direct experimental evidence for social learning, nor has there been any direct observation of social diffusion of behavioral innovations. Here, we tested both a static and a dynamic network model and found strong evidence that diffusion patterns of moss-sponging, but not leaf-sponge re-use, were significantly better explained by social than individual learning. The most conservative estimate of social transmission accounted for 85% of observed events, with an estimated 15-fold increase in learning rate for each time a novice observed an informed individual moss-sponging. We conclude that group-specific behavioral variants in wild chimpanzees can be socially learned, adding to the evidence that this prerequisite for culture originated in a common ancestor of great apes and humans, long before the advent of modern humans.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Modeling the competition between lung metastases and the immune system using agents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Triplex cell vaccine is a cancer cellular vaccine that can prevent almost completely the mammary tumor onset in HER-2/neu transgenic mice. In a translational perspective, the activity of the Triplex vaccine was also investigated against lung metastases showing that the vaccine is an effective treatment also for the cure of metastases. A future human application of the Triplex vaccine should take into account several aspects of biological behavior of the involved entities to improve the efficacy of therapeutic treatment and to try to predict, for example, the outcomes of longer experiments in order to move faster towards clinical phase I trials. To help to address this problem, MetastaSim, a hybrid Agent Based - ODE model for the simulation of the vaccine-elicited immune system response against lung metastases in mice is presented. The model is used as in silico wet-lab. As a first application MetastaSim is used to find protocols capable of maximizing the total number of prevented metastases, minimizing the number of vaccine administrations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The model shows that it is possible to obtain "in silico" a 45% reduction in the number of vaccinations. The analysis of the results further suggests that any optimal protocol for preventing lung metastases formation should be composed by an initial massive vaccine dosage followed by few vaccine recalls.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Such a reduction may represent an important result from the point of view of translational medicine to humans, since a downsizing of the number of vaccinations is usually advisable in order to minimize undesirable effects. The suggested vaccination strategy also represents a notable outcome. Even if this strategy is commonly used for many infectious diseases such as tetanus and hepatitis-B, it can be in fact considered as a relevant result in the field of cancer-vaccines immunotherapy. These results can be then used and verified in future "in vivo" experiments, and their outcome can be used to further improve and refine the model.</p

Wild redfronted lemurs (Eulemur rufifrons) use social information to learn new foraging techniques

Recent research has claimed that traditions are not a unique feature of human culture, but that they can be found in animal societies as well. However, the origins of traditions in animals studied in the wild are still poorly understood. To contribute comparative data to begin filling this gap, we conducted a social diffusion experiment with four groups of wild redfronted lemurs (Eulemur rufifrons). We used a ‘two-option’ feeding box, where these Malagasy primates could either pull or push a door to get access to a fruit reward to study whether and how these two behavioural traits spread through the groups. During a pre-training phase, two groups were presented with boxes in which one technique was blocked, whereas two groups were presented with unblocked boxes. During a subsequent unconstrained phase, all four groups were confronted with unblocked boxes. Nearly half of the study animals were able to learn the new feeding skill and individuals who observed others needed fewer unsuccessful task manipulations until their first successful action. Animals in the two groups with pre-training also discovered the corresponding alternative technique but preferred the seeded technique. Interestingly, animals in the two groups without pre-training discovered both techniques, and one group developed a group preference for one technique whereas the other did not. In all groups, some animals also scrounged food rewards. In conclusion, redfronted lemurs appear to use social information in acquiring a novel task, and animals in at least in one group without training developed a group preference for one technique, indicating that they have the potential to develop behavioural traditions and conformity

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Social Transmission and the Spread of Modern Contraception in Rural Ethiopia

Socio-economic development has proven to be insufficient to explain the time and pace of the human demographic transition. Shifts to low fertility norms have thus been thought to result from social diffusion, yet to date, micro-level studies are limited and are often unable to disentangle the effect of social transmission from that of extrinsic factors. We used data which included the first ever use of modern contraception among a population of over 900 women in four villages in rural Ethiopia, where contraceptive prevalence is still low (<20%). We investigated whether the time of adoption of modern contraception is predicted by (i) the proportion of ever-users/non ever-users within both women and their husbands' friendships networks and (ii) the geographic distance to contraceptive ever-users. Using a model comparison approach, we found that individual socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. parity, education) and a religious norm are the most likely explanatory factors of temporal and spatial patterns of contraceptive uptake, while the role of person-to-person contact through either friendship or spatial networks remains marginal. Our study has broad implications for understanding the processes that initiate transitions to low fertility and the uptake of birth control technologies in the developing world

Influenza activity in Cambodia during 2006-2008

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is little information about influenza disease among the Cambodian population. To better understand the dynamics of influenza in Cambodia, the Cambodian National Influenza Center (NIC) was established in August 2006. To continuously monitor influenza activity, a hospital based sentinel surveillance system for ILI (influenza like illness) with a weekly reporting and sampling scheme was established in five sites in 2006. In addition, hospital based surveillance of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) cases was established in 2 sites.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The sentinel sites collect weekly epidemiological data on ILI patients fulfilling the case definition, and take naso-pharyngeal specimens from a defined number of cases per week. The samples are tested in the Virology Unit at the Institut Pasteur in Phnom Penh. From each sample viral RNA was extracted and amplified by a multiplex RT-PCR detecting simultaneously influenza A and influenza B virus. Influenza A viruses were then subtyped and analyzed by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Samples collected by the ALRI system were tested with the same approach.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 2006 to 2008, influenza circulation was observed mainly from June to December, with a clear seasonal peak in October shown in the data from 2008.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Influenza activity in Cambodia occurred during the rainy season, from June to December, and ended before the cool season (extending usually from December to February). Although Cambodia is a tropical country geographically located in the northern hemisphere, influenza activity has a southern hemisphere transmission pattern. Together with the antigenic analysis of the circulating strains, it is now possible to give better influenza vaccination recommendation for Cambodia.</p

Harnessing learning biases is essential for applying social learning in conservation

Social learning can influence how animals respond to anthropogenic changes in the environment, determining whether animals survive novel threats and exploit novel resources or produce maladaptive behaviour and contribute to human-wildlife conflict. Predicting where social learning will occur and manipulating its use are, therefore, important in conservation, but doing so is not straightforward. Learning is an inherently biased process that has been shaped by natural selection to prioritize important information and facilitate its efficient uptake. In this regard, social learning is no different from other learning processes because it too is shaped by perceptual filters, attentional biases and learning constraints that can differ between habitats, species, individuals and contexts. The biases that constrain social learning are not understood well enough to accurately predict whether or not social learning will occur in many situations, which limits the effective use of social learning in conservation practice. Nevertheless, we argue that by tapping into the biases that guide the social transmission of information, the conservation applications of social learning could be improved. We explore the conservation areas where social learning is highly relevant and link them to biases in the cues and contexts that shape social information use. The resulting synthesis highlights many promising areas for collaboration between the fields and stresses the importance of systematic reviews of the evidence surrounding social learning practices.BBSRC David Phillips Fellowship (BB/H021817/1