Adopting a Whole Systems Approach to Transport Decarbonisation, Air Quality and Health: An Online Participatory Systems Mapping Case Study in the UK

In a drive to achieve net zero emissions, U.K. transport decarbonisation policies are predominantly focussed on measures to promote the uptake and use of electric vehicles (EVs). This is reflected in the COP26 Transport Declaration signed by 38 national governments, alongside city region governments, vehicle manufacturers and investors. However, emerging evidence suggests that EVs present multiple challenges for air quality, mobility and health, including risks from non-exhaust emissions (NEEs) and increasing reliance on vehicles for short trips. Understanding the interconnected links between electric mobility, human health and the environment, including synergies and trade-offs, requires a whole systems approach to transport policymaking. In the present paper, we describe the use of Participatory Systems Mapping (PSM) in which a diverse group of stakeholders collaboratively constructed a causal model of the U.K. surface transport system through a series of interactive online workshops. We present the map and its analysis, with our findings illustrating how unintended consequences of EV-focussed transport policies may have an impact on air quality, human health and important social functions of the transport system. We conclude by considering how online participatory causal modelling techniques could be effectively integrated with empirical metrics to facilitate effective policy design and appraisal in the transport sector

Can people guess what happened to others from their reactions?

Are we able to infer what happened to a person from a brief sample of his/her behaviour? It has been proposed that mentalising skills can be used to retrodict as well as predict behaviour, that is, to determine what mental states of a target have already occurred. The current study aimed to develop a paradigm to explore these processes, which takes into account the intricacies of real-life situations in which reasoning about mental states, as embodied in behaviour, may be utilised. A novel task was devised which involved observing subtle and naturalistic reactions of others in order to determine the event that had previously taken place. Thirty-five participants viewed videos of real individuals reacting to the researcher behaving in one of four possible ways, and were asked to judge which of the four ‘scenarios’ they thought the individual was responding to. Their eye movements were recorded to establish the visual strategies used. Participants were able to deduce successfully from a small sample of behaviour which scenario had previously occurred. Surprisingly, looking at the eye region was associated with poorer identification of the scenarios, and eye movement strategy varied depending on the event experienced by the person in the video. This suggests people flexibly deploy their attention using a retrodictive mindreading process to infer events

The Western English Channel contains a persistent microbial seed bank

Robust seasonal dynamics in microbial community composition have previously been observed in the English Channel L4 marine observatory. These could be explained either by seasonal changes in the taxa present at the L4 site, or by the continuous modulation of abundance of taxa within a persistent microbial community. To test these competing hypotheses, deep sequencing of 16S rRNA from one randomly selected time point to a depth of 10 729 927 reads was compared with an existing taxonomic survey data covering 6 years. When compared against the 6-year survey of 72 shallow sequenced time points, the deep sequenced time point maintained 95.4% of the combined shallow OTUs. Additionally, on average, 99.75%±0.06 (mean±s.d.) of the operational taxonomic units found in each shallow sequenced sample were also found in the single deep sequenced sample. This suggests that the vast majority of taxa identified in this ecosystem are always present, but just in different proportions that are predictable. Thus observed changes in community composition are actually variations in the relative abundance of taxa, not, as was previously believed, demonstrating extinction and recolonization of taxa in the ecosystem through time

The dynamic mosaic phenotypes of flowering plants

Ecological interaction and adaptation both depend on phenotypic characteristics. In contrast with the common conception of the ‘adult’ phenotype, plant bodies develop continuously during their lives. Furthermore, the different units (metamers) that comprise plant bodies are not identical copies, but vary extensively within individuals. These characteristics foster recognition of plant phenotypes as dynamic mosaics. We elaborate this conception based largely on a wide‐ranging review of developmental, ecological and evolutionary studies of plant reproduction, and identify its utility in the analysis of plant form, function and diversification. An expanded phenotypic conception is warranted because dynamic mosaic features affect plant performance and evolve. Evidence demonstrates that dynamic mosaic phenotypes enable functional ontogeny, division of labour, resource and mating efficiency. In addition, dynamic mosaic features differ between individuals and experience phenotypic selection. Investigation of the characteristics and roles of dynamic and mosaic features of plant phenotypes benefits from considering within‐individual variation as a function‐valued trait that can be analysed with functional data methods. Phenotypic dynamics and within‐individual variation arise despite an individual's genetic uniformity, and develop largely by heterogeneous gene expression and associated hormonal control. These characteristics can be heritable, so that dynamic mosaic phenotypes can evolve and diversify by natural selection.Fil: Harder, Lawrence. University of Calgary; CanadáFil: Strelin, Marina Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Departamento de Ecología Evolutiva. Instituto de Ecología; MéxicoFil: Clocher, Ilona C.. University of Calgary; CanadáFil: Kulbaba, Mason. University of Calgary; CanadáFil: Aizen, Marcelo Adrian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentin

Computational models that matter during a global pandemic outbreak: A call to action

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a dramatic loss of lives worldwide, challenging the sustainability of our health care systems, threatening economic meltdown, and putting pressure on the mental health of individuals (due to social distancing and lock-down measures). The pandemic is also posing severe challenges to the scientific community, with scholars under pressure to respond to policymakers’ demands for advice despite the absence of adequate, trusted data. Understanding the pandemic requires fine-grained data representing specific local conditions and the social reactions of individuals. While experts have built simulation models to estimate disease trajectories that may be enough to guide decision-makers to formulate policy measures to limit the epidemic, they do not cover the full behavioural and social complexity of societies under pandemic crisis. Modelling that has such a large potential impact upon people’s lives is a great responsibility. This paper calls on the scientific community to improve the transparency, access, and rigour of their models. It also calls on stakeholders to improve the rapidity with which data from trusted sources are released to the community (in a fully responsible manner). Responding to the pandemic is a stress test of our collaborative capacity and the social/economic value of research

Quantum states made to measure

Recent progress in manipulating quantum states of light and matter brings quantum-enhanced measurements closer to prospective applications. The current challenge is to make quantum metrologic strategies robust against imperfections.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, Commentary for Nature Photonic

Community ecology of the Middle Miocene primates of La Venta, Colombia: the relationship between ecological diversity, divergence time, and phylogenetic richness

It has been suggested that the degree of ecological diversity that characterizes a primate community correlates positively with both its phylogenetic richness and the time since the members of that community diverged (Fleagle and Reed in Primate communities. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 92–115, 1999). It is therefore questionable whether or not a community with a relatively recent divergence time but high phylogenetic richness would be as ecologically variable as a community with similar phylogenetic richness but a more distant divergence time. To address this question, the ecological diversity of a fossil primate community from La Venta, Colombia, a Middle Miocene platyrrhine community with phylogenetic diversity comparable with extant platyrrhine communities but a relatively short time since divergence, was compared with that of modern Neotropical primate communities. Shearing quotients and molar lengths, which together are reliable indicators of diet, for both fossil and extant species were plotted against each other to describe the dietary “ecospace” occupied by each community. Community diversity was calculated as the area of the minimum convex polygon encompassing all community members. The diversity of the fossil community was then compared with that of extant communities to test whether the fossil community was less diverse than extant communities while taking phylogenetic richness into account. Results indicate that the La Ventan community was not significantly less ecologically diverse than modern communities, supporting the idea that ecological diversification occurred along with phylogenetic diversification early in platyrrhine evolution

Trace-gas metabolic versatility of the facultative methanotroph Methylocella silvestris

The climate-active gas methane is generated both by biological processes and by thermogenic decomposition of fossil organic material, which forms methane and short-chain alkanes, principally ethane, propane and butane1, 2. In addition to natural sources, environments are exposed to anthropogenic inputs of all these gases from oil and gas extraction and distribution. The gases provide carbon and/or energy for a diverse range of microorganisms that can metabolize them in both anoxic3 and oxic zones. Aerobic methanotrophs, which can assimilate methane, have been considered to be entirely distinct from utilizers of short-chain alkanes, and studies of environments exposed to mixtures of methane and multi-carbon alkanes have assumed that disparate groups of microorganisms are responsible for the metabolism of these gases. Here we describe the mechanism by which a single bacterial strain, Methylocella silvestris, can use methane or propane as a carbon and energy source, documenting a methanotroph that can utilize a short-chain alkane as an alternative to methane. Furthermore, during growth on a mixture of these gases, efficient consumption of both gases occurred at the same time. Two soluble di-iron centre monooxygenase (SDIMO) gene clusters were identified and were found to be differentially expressed during bacterial growth on these gases, although both were required for efficient propane utilization. This report of a methanotroph expressing an additional SDIMO that seems to be uniquely involved in short-chain alkane metabolism suggests that such metabolic flexibility may be important in many environments where methane and short-chain alkanes co-occur

Aberrant DNA hypermethylation of the ITIH5 tumor suppressor gene in acute myeloid leukemia

Epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA hypermethylation and modifications of histone amino acids are known to play an important role in the control of gene expression both in normal human development and tumorigenesis. Hypermethylation of CpG islands within promoter regions of tumor suppressor genes is associated with transcriptional inactivation and represents, in addition to genetic aberrations, an important mechanism of gene silencing in the pathogenesis of human cancer. Inter-α-trypsine inhibitors (ITIs) are a family of serine protease inhibitors consisting of one light chain (bikunin) and two heavy chains (ITI heavy chains, ITIHs). ITIHs stabilize the extracellular matrix (ECM) by interacting with hyaluronic acid, which is a major ECM component. Hypermethylation in the upstream region of the promoter-associated CpG island of ITIH5, the most recently described member of the ITIH family, has been previously detected in breast cancer and was associated with an adverse outcome. In this study, we determined the DNA methylation status of the promoter region near the transcription start site of the ITIH5 tumor suppressor gene in leukemia cell lines and primary samples from patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) as well as the potential use of demethylating agents to restore a demethylated state of the promoter. Aberrant ITIH5 promoter hypermethylation occurred in 15 of 104 (14.4%) diagnostic AML samples. There were no statistically significant correlations between the ITIH5 methylation status and clinical prognostic parameters. Our results indicate that aberrant ITIH5 promoter hypermethylation is a novel epigenetic event in AML

Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG-supplemented formula expands butyrate-producing bacterial strains in food allergic infants.

Dietary intervention with extensively hydrolyzed casein formula supplemented with Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (EHCF+LGG) accelerates tolerance acquisition in infants with cow's milk allergy (CMA). We examined whether this effect is attributable, at least in part, to an influence on the gut microbiota. Fecal samples from healthy controls (n=20) and from CMA infants (n=19) before and after treatment with EHCF with (n=12) and without (n=7) supplementation with LGG were compared by 16S rRNA-based operational taxonomic unit clustering and oligotyping. Differential feature selection and generalized linear model fitting revealed that the CMA infants have a diverse gut microbial community structure dominated by Lachnospiraceae (20.5±9.7%) and Ruminococcaceae (16.2±9.1%). Blautia, Roseburia and Coprococcus were significantly enriched following treatment with EHCF and LGG, but only one genus, Oscillospira, was significantly different between infants that became tolerant and those that remained allergic. However, most tolerant infants showed a significant increase in fecal butyrate levels, and those taxa that were significantly enriched in these samples, Blautia and Roseburia, exhibited specific strain-level demarcations between tolerant and allergic infants. Our data suggest that EHCF+LGG promotes tolerance in infants with CMA, in part, by influencing the strain-level bacterial community structure of the infant gut