Migration paths saturations in meta-epidemic systems

In this paper we consider a simple two-patch model in which a population affected by a disease can freely move. We assume that the capacity of the interconnected paths is limited, and thereby influencing the migration rates. Possible habitat disruptions due to human activities or natural events are accounted for. The demographic assumptions prevent the ecosystem to be wiped out, and the disease remains endemic in both populated patches at a stable equilibrium, but possibly also with an oscillatory behavior in the case of unidirectional migrations. Interestingly, if infected cannot migrate, it is possible that one patch becomes disease-free. This fact could be exploited to keep disease-free at least part of the population

Desiccation cracks provide evidence of lake drying on Mars, Sutton Island member, Murray formation, Gale Crater

Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover data are used to describe the morphology of desiccation cracks observed in ancient lacustrine strata at Gale crater, Mars, and to interpret their paleoenvironmental setting. The desiccation cracks indicate subaerial exposure of lacustrine facies in the Sutton Island member of the Murray formation. In association with ripple cross-stratification and possible eolian cross-bedding, these facies indicate a transition from longer-lived perennial lakes recorded by older strata to younger lakes characterized by intermittent exposure. The transition from perennial to episodically exposed lacustrine environments provides evidence for local to regional climate change that can help constrain Mars climate models

Unexpected distribution of ν1f7/2 strength in Ca 49

The calcium isotopes have emerged as a critical testing ground for new microscopically derived shell-model interactions, and a great deal of experimental and theoretical focus has been directed toward this region. We investigate the relative spectroscopic strengths associated with 1f7/2 neutron hole states in Ca47,49 following one-neutron knockout reactions from Ca48,50. The observed reduction of strength populating the 7/21- state in Ca49, as compared to Ca47, is inconsistent with shell-model calculations using both phenomenological interactions such as GXPF1, and interactions derived from microscopically based two- and three-nucleon forces. The result suggests a fragmentation of the l=3 strength to higher-lying states as suggested by the microscopic calculations, but the observed magnitude of the reduction is not reproduced in any shell-model description

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Use of secondary forests by understory birds in a fragmented landscape in central Amazonia

Rates of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon have increased since 1991 and forecasts are not optimistic about the slowing of this process. Some authors believe that the Amazon may be experiencing a massive process of species extinction. However, the deforestation is accompanied by the expansion of secondary forests that are established in the abandoned areas. The trend is an increase in secondary forests cover, resulting in a mosaic of primary forest (FP) and fragments separated by an array of secondary forests (FS). In this scenario, the prediction of a massive extinction could be wrong if many species could survive in the secondary forests. To assess the importance of FS for the understory birds we sampled areas in regeneration and a continuous forest of a fragmented landscape. We conducted mist netting (24 nets/day) for six consecutive days/month, for 8 months (May-November) in 2009. Some forest species as do not seem to be adapted to the secondary forest environment and their occurrences are restricted to continuous forest environments. But most focal species showed no significant difference in apparent survival rates between the enviroments, suggesting that these species inhabit the secondary forest and the primary forest similarly. Because most of the matrix in fragmented landscapes are composed by secondary forests, such results highlights the conservation value that these habitats present in the long term. Thus, FS should be regarded as dynamic matrix that not only allows the movement of individuals but also function as habitat for many species typical of FP.Na Amazônia, as taxas de desmatamento crescem desde 1991 e as previsões não são otimistas quanto à desaceleração desse processo. A devastação da floresta é acompanhada de uma expansão de florestas secundárias (FS) que se estabelecem nas áreas abandonadas. A tendência é um aumento de florestas secundárias, resultando num mosaico de floresta contínua e fragmentos separados por uma matriz de FS. Nesse cenário, autores acreditam que a Amazônia pode passar por um processo massivo de extinção de espécies. Por outro lado, a previsão de um processo massivo de extinção pode ser equivocada, pois muitas espécies florestais poderiam sobreviver nas florestas secundárias. Para avaliar o valor das florestas secundárias para espécies florestais amostramos por oito meses com redes de neblina uma capoeira (FS) em regeneração e uma floresta primária (FP) de uma paisagem fragmentada. Algumas espécies não foram capturadas na capoeira e aparentemente evitam esse tipo de hábitat. No entanto, a maioria das espécies do grupo focal não apresentou diferença na sobrevivência aparente entre os ambientes, o que nos indica que estão habitando a capoeira e a floresta primária da mesma forma. Na realidade amazônica, onde grande parte da matriz é composta por floresta secundária, a matriz tem valor para conservação e deve ser analisada como um elemento dinâmico que não apenas permite a movimentação de indivíduos, mas também serve de hábitat para muitas espécies de floresta primária. Mas ressaltamos que é fundamental a preservação de áreas de floresta primária que servirão de fonte às florestas secundárias adjacentes

Espécies crípticas em Pagamea coriacea sensu lato (Rubiaceae): evidências morfológicas, ecológicas e de comportamento reprodutivo em um contexto simpátrico

In this study we explore morphological and ecological variation in sympatric populations of Pagamea coriacea s.l. - a species complex from white-sand vegetation in the Amazon. A total of 147 trees were sampled and monitored at three nearby sites in Central Amazon, Brazil. Multivariate analyses of morphology indicated two distinct groups (A and B), which also differed in bark type, each containing subgroups associated with sexual dimorphism. However, a single hermaphroditic individual was observed within group B. As expected, all pistillate plants produced fruits, but 23% of the staminate plants of group B, and 5% of group A also produced fruits. This variation suggests that the sexual systems of both groups are between dioecy and gynodioecy. There was an overlap in flowering phases between the two groups, but the pattern of floral maturation differed. Ecologically, plants of group B were found in more shaded habitats and over sandstone bedrocks, while group A was prevalent in deeper sandy soils as canopy plants. The significances of morphological and environmental differences were tested by a multivariate analysis of variance, and a canonical discriminant analysis assessed the importance of variables. The coexistence in sympatry of two discrete morphological groups in the P. coriacea s.l., with different habitat preferences and reproductive behaviors, indicates they represent distinct species.O objetivo deste estudo foi testar se o complexo de espécies Pagamea coriacea inclui múltiplas espécies, usando evidências morfológicas, ecológicas e de comportamento reprodutivo. Um total de 147 árvores foram amostradas e monitoradas em três locais próximos na Amazônia Central, Brasil. Análises multivariadas de dados morfológicos indicaram dois grupos discretos (A e B), que coincidem com diferenças no tipo de casca, cada um por sua vez com subgrupos que representam dimorfismo sexual. Contudo, um indivíduo distintamente hermafrodita foi encontrado no grupo B. Todas as plantas pistiladas produziram frutos, mas também foram observados frutos para 23% das plantas estaminadas do grupo B, e para 5% das estaminadas do grupo A. Essa variação sugere que ambos grupos possuem um sistema sexual entre dioicia e ginodioicia. Houve sobreposição das fases de floração e frutificação entre os dois grupos, mas o padrão de maturação de flores foi diferente. Quanto ao hábitat, o grupo B predominou em situações de sombra e em solos arenosos rasos sobre lajes de pedra, enquanto o grupo A ocorreu em solos arenosos mais profundos e no dossel da vegetação. A coexistência de dois grupos morfológicos discretos no complexo P. coriacea s.l., com diferenças ecológicas e de comportamento reprodutivo, indica que correspondem a duas espécies distintas