Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis as a Method for Time-Series Analysis of Climate Data

Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and floods have been recorded around the world in the past 10 years. Such changes in the temporal scaling behaviour of climate time-series data can be difficult to detect. While there are easy and direct ways of analysing climate data by calculating the means and variances for different levels of temporal aggregation, these methods can miss more subtle changes in their dynamics. This paper describes multi-scale entropy (MSE) analysis as a tool to study climate time-series data and to identify temporal scales of variability and their change over time in climate time-series. MSE estimates the sample entropy of the time-series after coarse-graining at different temporal scales. An application of MSE to Central European, variance-adjusted, mean monthly air temperature anomalies (CRUTEM4v) is provided. The results show that the temporal scales of the current climate (1960–2014) are different from the long-term average (1850–1960). For temporal scale factors longer than 12 months, the sample entropy increased markedly compared to the long-term record. Such an increase can be explained by systems theory with greater complexity in the regional temperature data. From 1961 the patterns of monthly air temperatures are less regular at time-scales greater than 12 months than in the earlier time period. This finding suggests that, at these inter-annual time scales, the temperature variability has become less predictable than in the past. It is possible that climate system feedbacks are expressed in altered temporal scales of the European temperature time-series data. A comparison with the variance and Shannon entropy shows that MSE analysis can provide additional information on the statistical properties of climate time-series data that can go undetected using traditional method

Impact of fertiliser, water table, and warming on celery yield and CO2 and CH4 emissions from fenland agricultural peat

Peatlands are globally important areas for carbon preservation; although covering only 3% of global land area, they store 30% of total soil carbon. Lowland peat soils can also be very productive for agriculture, but their cultivation requires drainage as most crops are intolerant of root-zone anoxia. This leads to the creation of oxic conditions in which organic matter becomes vulnerable to mineralisation. Given the demand for high quality agricultural land, 40% of the UK's peatlands have been drained for agricultural use. In this study we present the outcomes of a controlled environment experiment conducted on agricultural fen peat to examine possible trade-offs between celery growth (an economically important crop on the agricultural peatlands of eastern England) and emissions of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) at different temperatures (ambient and ambient +5 °C), water table levels (−30 cm, and −50 cm below the surface), and fertiliser use. Raising the water table from −50 cm to −30 cm depressed yields of celery, and at the same time decreased the entire ecosystem CO2 loss by 31%. A 5 °C temperature increase enhanced ecosystem emissions of CO2 by 25% and increased celery dry shoot weight by 23% while not affecting the shoot fresh weight. Fertiliser addition increased both celery yields and soil respiration by 22%. Methane emissions were generally very low and not significantly different from zero. Our results suggest that increasing the water table can lower emissions of greenhouse gases and reduce the rate of peat wastage, but reduces the productivity of celery. If possible, the water table should be raised to −30 cm before and after cultivation, and only decreased during the growing season, as this would reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions and peat loss, potentially not affecting the production of vegetable crops

The interannual variability of Africa's ecosystem productivity: a multi-model analysis

We are comparing spatially explicit process-model based estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance and its components over Africa and confront them with remote sensing based proxies of vegetation productivity and atmospheric inversions of land-atmosphere net carbon exchange. Particular emphasis is on characterizing the patterns of interannual variability of carbon fluxes and analyzing the factors and processes responsible for it. For this purpose simulations with the terrestrial biosphere models ORCHIDEE, LPJ-DGVM, LPJ-Guess and JULES have been performed using a standardized modeling protocol and a uniform set of corrected climate forcing data. While the models differ concerning the absolute magnitude of carbon fluxes, we find several robust patterns of interannual variability among the models. Models exhibit largest interannual variability in southern and eastern Africa, regions which are primarily covered by herbaceous vegetation. Interannual variability of the net carbon balance appears to be more strongly influenced by gross primary production than by ecosystem respiration. A principal component analysis indicates that moisture is the main driving factor of interannual gross primary production variability for those regions. On the contrary in a large part of the inner tropics radiation appears to be limiting in two models. These patterns are corroborated by remotely sensed vegetation properties from the SeaWiFS satellite sensor. Inverse atmospheric modeling estimates of surface carbon fluxes are less conclusive at this point, implying the need for a denser network of observation stations over Africa.JRC.DDG.H.3-Global environement monitorin

Multi-annual fluxes of carbon dioxide from an intensively cultivated temperate peatland

East Anglia contains the largest continuous area of lowland fen peatlands in the United Kingdom (UK) which store vast quantities of terrestrial carbon (C) that have accrued over millennia. These long term C stores have largely been drained and converted for agricultural land use over the last 400 years due to their high agricultural production potential. Initial drainage of these peatlands leads to surface lowering and peat wastage. Prolonged exposure of carbon dense peat soils to oxygen through continued agricultural management results in sustained losses of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. An increasing population in the UK has the potential to put further stress on these productive but rapidly diminishing Grade 1 agricultural land. Improving our understanding of land management impacts on CO2 emissions from these soils is crucial to improving their longevity as an important store of C and as an economic resource. Our measurements at an intensively cultivated lowland peatland in Norfolk, UK, are the first multi-annual record using the micrometeorological eddy covariance (EC) technique to measure CO2 fluxes associated with the production of horticultural salad crops. Three full years of flux measurements over leek (2013), lettuce (2014) and celery (2015) cropping systems found that the site was a net annual source of CO2 with a net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of 6.59, 7.84 and 7.71 t C-CO2 ha-1 a-1 respectively. The leek crop, with its longer growing period, had a lower annual NEE due to its long growth period from early spring through to late autumn, whereas the shorter growing periods of lettuce and celery meant their peak growth (CO2 uptake, Gross Primary Productivity, GPP) took place during early/mid-summer with post-harvest weeds exploiting the later growing season but exhibited lower CO2 assimilation than the leek crop. Periods of high CO2 emissions from the soil to the atmosphere were measured during mechanical disruptions to the soils at the site, namely during and after ploughing prior to crop establishment, and following post-harvest disking. The duration of the post-ploughing period prior to planting of the crop varied from 2 weeks to 2 months; similarly disking did not always take place directly after harvest, causing significant differences in seasonal NEE patterns. Further notable differences in net CO2 fluxes as they relate to agricultural management practises will be discussed, including an account of the lateral C imports and exports occurring during crop planting and harvest

Improving estimates of tropical peatland area, carbon storage, and greenhouse gas fluxes

The workshops that led to this article were supported financially by the Universities of Leicester and Nottingham, and the Natural Environment Research Council-funded ‘Earth Observation Technology Cluster’ knowledge exchange initiativeOur limited knowledge of the size of the carbon pool and exchange fluxes in forested lowland tropical peatlands represents a major gap in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Peat deposits in several regions (e.g. the Congo Basin, much of Amazonia) are only just beginning to be mapped and characterised. Here we consider the extent to which methodological improvements and improved coordination between researchers could help to fill this gap. We review the literature on measurement of the key parameters required to calculate carbon pools and fluxes, including peatland area, peat bulk density, carbon concentration, above-ground carbon stocks, litter inputs to the peat, gaseous carbon exchange, and waterborne carbon fluxes. We identify areas where further research and better coordination are particularly needed in order to reduce the uncertainties in estimates of tropical peatland carbon pools and fluxes, thereby facilitating better-informed management of these exceptionally carbon-rich ecosystems.PostprintPeer reviewe

Test data for the calculation of powder paterns for intermetallic phases

Powder diffraction patterns are often calculated from structural parameters to assist in the identification of materials. To ensure that powder pattern calculations are correct, it is useful to have data to test the computer program doing the calculations. this paper contains test data for each of the crystallographic point groups and 63 of the 230 space groups. An important feature of the data is that many tests involve two high-symmetry structures (sodium and magnesium) that are set in successively lower-symmetry space groups. Thus, the calculated powder intensities for sodium, for example, are identical whatever the setting is. Though the data were chosen to be especially useful for the calculation of the powder patterns of metals and intermetallic compounds, the data have wider utility

Overriding water table control on managed peatland greenhouse gas emissions

Global peatlands store more carbon than is naturally present in the atmosphere1,2. However, many peatlands are under pressure from drainage-based agriculture, plantation development and fire, with the equivalent of around 3% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted from drained peatland3–5. Efforts to curb such emissions are intensifying through the conservation of undrained peatlands and rewetting of drained systems6. Here we report CO2 eddy covariance data from 16 locations and CH4 data from 41 locations in the British Isles, and combine them with published data from sites across all major peatland biomes. We find that the mean annual effective water-table depth (WTDe; that is, the average depth of the aerated peat layer) overrides all other ecosystem- and management-related controls on greenhouse gas fluxes. We estimate that every 10 cm of reduction in WTDe could reduce the net warming impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions (100-year Global Warming Potentials) by at least 3 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1, until WTDe is < 30 cm. Raising water levels further would continue to have a net cooling effect until WTDe is < 10 cm. Our results suggest that greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands drained for agriculture could be greatly reduced without necessarily halting their productive use. Halving WTDe in all drained agricultural peatlands, for example, could reduce emissions by the equivalent of over 1% of global anthropogenic emissions

Effect of water table management and elevated CO 2 on radish productivity and on CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes from peatlands converted to agriculture

Anthropogenic activity is affecting the global climate through the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) e.g. CO2 and CH4. About a third of anthropogenic GHGs are produced from agriculture, including livestock farming and horticulture. A large proportion of the UK's horticultural farming takes place on drained lowland peatlands, which are a source of significant amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. This study set out to establish whether raising the water table from the currently used − 50 cm to − 30 cm could reduce GHGs emissions from agricultural peatlands, while simultaneously maintaining the current levels of horticultural productivity. A factorial design experiment used agricultural peat soil collected from the Norfolk Fens (among the largest of the UK's lowland peatlands under intensive cultivation) to assess the effects of water table levels, elevated CO2, and agricultural production on GHG fluxes and crop productivity of radish, one of the most economically important fenland crops. The results of this study show that a water table of − 30 cm can increase the productivity of the radish crop while also reducing soil CO2 emissions but without a resultant loss of CH4 to the atmosphere, under both ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations. Elevated CO2 increased dry shoot biomass, but not bulb biomass nor root biomass, suggesting no immediate advantage of future CO2 levels to horticultural farming on peat soils. Overall, increasing the water table could make an important contribution to global warming mitigation while not having a detrimental impact on crop yield