Modelling stratospheric polar ozone using objective analysis

We have studied the development of the austral ozone hole using a 3-D spectral chemical transport model at R15 resolution for the period 15th September to 15th October, 1991. The model is driven by objectively analyzed wind fields obtained from the Canadian Meteorological Center and uses the chemical module developed by Kaminski (1992). Although extensive processing of NO(y) and Cl(x) occurs within the model, the ozone hole that develops appears shallow and ephemeral. Analysis of the results indicate that the meridional transport of ozone is sufficient to overwhelm the substantial chemical depletion that does occur. We suggest that the low resolution objectively analyzed data used is unable to capture the essential isolated nature of the vortex

Response of the middle atmosphere to CO2 doubling: results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) has been used to examine the middle atmosphere response to CO2 doubling. The radiative-photochemical response induced by doubling CO2 alone and the response produced by changes in prescribed SSTs are found to be approximately additive, with the former effect dominating throughout the middle atmosphere. The paper discusses the overall response, with emphasis on the effects of SST changes, which allow a tropospheric response to the CO2 forcing. The overall response is a cooling of the middle atmosphere accompanied by significant increases in the ozone and water vapor abundances. The ozone radiative feedback occurs through both an increase in solar heating and a decrease in infrared cooling, with the latter accounting for up to 15% of the total effect. Changes in global mean water vapor cooling are negligible above ~30 hPa. Near the polar summer mesopause, the temperature response is weak and not statistically significant. The main effects of SST changes are a warmer troposphere, a warmer and higher tropopause, cell-like structures of heating and cooling at low and middlelatitudes in the middle atmosphere, warming in the summer mesosphere, water vapor increase throughout the domain, and O3 decrease in the lower tropical stratosphere. No noticeable change in upwardpropagating planetary wave activity in the extratropical winter–spring stratosphere and no significant temperature response in the polar winter–spring stratosphere have been detected. Increased upwelling in the tropical stratosphere has been found to be linked to changed wave driving at low latitudes

Effects of Greenhouse Gases Like Carbon Dioxide Can Be Spotted Earlier in the Middle Atmosphere

Understanding and dealing with climate change requires us to look at the atmosphere as a whole, not just the lowest portion near the surface. Analyzing the effects of greenhouse gases on the middle atmosphere helps to identify and understand the effects of climate change early on.York's Knowledge Mobilization Unit provides services and funding for faculty, graduate students, and community organizations seeking to maximize the impact of academic research and expertise on public policy, social programming, and professional practice. It is supported by SSHRC and CIHR grants, and by the Office of the Vice-President Research & Innovation. [email protected] www.researchimpact.c

Ozone climatology using interactive chemistry: results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The climatology of ozone produced by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is presented. This three-dimensional global model incorporates the radiative feedbacks of ozone and water vapor calculated on-line with a photochemical module. This module includes a comprehensive gas-phase reaction set and a limited set of heterogeneous reactions to account for processes occurring on background sulphate aerosols. While transport is global, photochemistry is solved from about 400 hPa to the top of the model at ∼95 km. This approach provides a complete and comprehensive representation of transport, emission, and photochemistry of various constituents from the surface to the mesopause region. A comparison of model results with observations indicates that the ozone distribution and variability are in agreement with observations throughout most of the model domain. Column ozone annual variation is represented to within 5–10% of the observations except in the Southern Hemisphere for springtime high latitudes. The vertical ozone distribution is generally well represented by the model up to the mesopause region. Nevertheless, in the upper stratosphere, the model generally underestimates the amount of ozone as well as the latitudinal tilting of ozone isopleths at high latitude. Ozone variability is analyzed and compared with measurements. The comparison shows that the phase and amplitude of the seasonal variation as well as shorter timescale variations are well represented by the model at various latitudes and heights. Finally, the impact of incorporating ozone radiative feedback on the model climatology is isolated. It is found that the incorporation of ozone radiative feedback results in a cooling of ∼8 K in the summer stratopause region, which corrects a warm bias that results when climatological ozone is used

A Study into the Effect of the Presence of Moisture at the Wheel/Rail Interface during Dew and Damp Conditions

Incidents involving low levels of adhesion between the wheel and rail are a recurrent issue in the rail industry. The problem has been mitigated using friction modifiers and traction enhancers, but a significant number of incidents still occur throughout the year. The following work looks at the environmental conditions that surround periods of low adhesion in order to provide an insight into why low adhesion events occur. Network Rail Autumn data, which provided details on the time and location of low adhesion incidents, was compared against weather data on a national and then local scale. Low adhesion incidents have often been attributed to contamination on the rail, such as organic leaf matter, but other incidents occur when no contamination is visible. The time, date and location of incidents were linked to local weather data to establish any specific weather conditions that could lead to these events. The effects of precipitation, temperature and humidity on the rail were analysed in order to further the understanding of low adhesion in the wheel-rail contact, which will lead to better methods of mitigating this problem

A study on wear evaluation of railway wheels based on multibody dynamics and wear computation

The wear evolution of railway wheels is a very important issue in railway engineering. In the past, the reprofiling intervals of railway vehicle steel wheels have been scheduled according to designers' experience. Today, more reliable and accurate tools in predicting wheel wear evolution and wheelset lifetime can be used in order to achieve economical and safety benefits. In this work, a computational tool that is able to predict the evolution of the wheel profiles for a given railway system, as a function of the distance run, is presented. The strategy adopted consists of using a commercial multibody software to study the railway dynamic problem and a purpose-built code for managing its pre- and post-processing data in order to compute the wear. The tool is applied here to realistic operation scenarios in order to assess the effect of some service conditions on the wheel wear progression

Model-measurement comparison of mesospheric temperature inversions, and a simple theory for their occurrence

Mesospheric temperature inversions are well established observed phenomena, yet their properties remain the subject of ongoing research. Comparisons between Rayleigh-scatter lidar temperature measurements obtained by the University of Western Ontario's Purple Crow Lidar (42.9°N, 81.4°W) and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model are used to quantify the statistics of inversions. In both model and measurements, inversions occur most frequently in the winter and exhibit an average amplitude of ∼10 K. The model exhibits virtually no inversions in the summer, while the measurements show a strongly reduced frequency of occurrence with an amplitude about half that in the winter. A simple theory of mesospheric inversions based on wave saturation is developed, with no adjustable parameters. It predicts that the environmental lapse rate must be less than half the adiabatic lapse rate for an inversion to form, and it predicts the ratio of the inversion amplitude and thickness as a function of environmental lapse rate. Comparison of this prediction to the actual amplitude/thickness ratio using the lidar measurements shows good agreement between theory and measurements

Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere

In recent years a number of chemistry-climate models have been developed with an emphasis on the stratosphere. Such models cover a wide range of time scales of integration and vary considerably in complexity. The results of specific diagnostics are here analysed to examine the differences amongst individual models and observations, to assess the consistency of model predictions, with a particular focus on polar ozone. For example, many models indicate a significant cold bias in high latitudes, the “cold pole problem”, particularly in the southern hemisphere during winter and spring. This is related to wave propagation from the troposphere which can be improved by improving model horizontal resolution and with the use of non-orographic gravity wave drag. As a result of the widely differing modelled polar temperatures, different amounts of polar stratospheric clouds are simulated which in turn result in varying ozone values in the models. The results are also compared to determine the possible future behaviour of ozone, with an emphasis on the polar regions and mid-latitudes. All models predict eventual ozone recovery, but give a range of results concerning its timing and extent. Differences in the simulation of gravity waves and planetary waves as well as model resolution are likely major sources of uncertainty for this issue. In the Antarctic, the ozone hole has probably reached almost its deepest although the vertical and horizontal extent of depletion may increase slightly further over the next few years. According to the model results, Antarctic ozone recovery could begin any year within the range 2001 to 2008. The limited number of models which have been integrated sufficiently far indicate that full recovery of ozone to 1980 levels may not occur in the Antarctic until about the year 2050. For the Arctic, most models indicate that small ozone losses may continue for a few more years and that recovery could begin any year within the range 2004 to 2019. The start of ozone recovery in the Arctic is therefore expected to appear later than in the Antarctic

Pre-emptive and therapeutic adoptive immunotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Phenotype and effector function of T cells impact on clinical response

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