Detecting Economic Regimes in France : a Qualitative Markov-Switching Indicator Using Mixed Frequency Data

This paper proposes an indicator for detecting business cycle turning points involving mixed frequency business survey unbalanced data. It is based on a hidden Markov-switching model and allows for the detection of regime changes in a given economy where information is displayed monthly and/or quarterly. Starting from Gregoir and Lenglart (2000) we propose an adaptable framework which can be applied to many situations involving monthly, bimonthly and quarterly data. The proposed methodology is applied to the French economy. Using balances from business survey, this indicator measures the probability of being in an accelerating or a decelerating phase referring to the output growth rate cycle. The index is confronted over the past with a reference dating based on the growth cycle of the French GDP estimated through a Christiano-Fitzgerald filter. By extracting information from business survey, our index exhibits quite clearly and timely regime changes in France. Moreover, the signal delivered by the indicator is mainly unrevised and available many quarters before the ex-post dating. Considering this adequacy with the reference dating over the past, the turning point index therefore provides an accurate signal on the current outlook.Business Cycle; Business Survey; Turning points; Markov Switching Indicator; Multifrequency Data

L’eau perdue d’une micro-oasis. Premiers résultats d'une prospection archéologique et géoarchéologique du système d'irrigation d'El-Deir, oasis de Kharga (Égypte)

International audienceL’oasis égyptienne de Kharga, dans le désert Libyque, est une vaste dépression qui s’allonge sur 220 km, du nord au sud, et se caractérise, du point de vue archéologique, par la densité de deux réseaux d’ouvrages, les premiers à caractère militaire, les seconds à caractère hydraulique. En effet, les fouilles et les prospections menées dans l’oasis, au sud comme au nord, mettent en évidence le développement d’un système d’irrigation tout à fait unique en Égypte, consistant en une série de réseaux d’adduction d’eau souterrains permettant de capter l’eau des nappes phréatiques du plateau désertique, les qanâts.La prospection archéologique d’El-Deir, menée en association avec deux géographes, Jean-Paul Bravard et Romain Garcier, a permis d’étudier la spécificité du système d’irrigation d’un site du nord de l’oasis, occupé au moins de l’époque perse jusqu’au Ve siècle de notre ère. Les vastes parcellaires du site, dont le quadrillage est parfaitement repérable aujourd’hui encore, marquent l’étendue d’un terroir agricole immense et démontrent qu’il a été, dans l’Antiquité, une véritable oasis, associée à une vaste campagne à champs ouverts, et pas une simple halte sur une piste. Sont présentés ici les résultats des analyses des photographies satellitales et aériennes du site et de la première mission de prospection géoarchéologique sur le terrain, qui ont permis de poser la question de l'origine de l'eau à El-Deir, en l'absence de qanats

Immunohistochemical subtypes predict the clinical outcome in high-risk node-negative breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant FEC regimen: results of a single-center retrospective study

Prognostic factors for disease-free survival in patients treated before 2005 September: multivariate analysis. (DOCX 15 kb

The experiences and supportive care needs of UK patients with pancreatic cancer: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey

Objectives. Patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer have the poorest survival prognosis of any cancer. This survey aimed to describe their experiences of care and supportive care needs to inform future service provision. Design. Cross-sectional questionnaire survey of pancreatic cancer patients in the UK. Setting. Individuals at any stage along the care pathway were recruited via five NHS sites in the UK, and online, from January to June 2018. Participants. 274 individuals completed the questionnaire (78% (215) were completed online). Approximately half of participants were diagnosed within the last year (133/274). Of 212 providing gender details, 82 were male and 130 female. Ninety percent (192/213) described themselves as White British. Primary Outcome Measures. Experiences of communication and information; involvement in treatment decisions; supportive care needs. Results. Communication with, and care received from, clinical staff were generally reported positively. However, 29% (75/260) of respondents did not receive enough information at diagnosis, and 10% (25/253) felt they were not involved in decisions about their treatment, but would have liked to be. Supportive care needs were greatest in psychological and physical/daily living domains. 49% (108/221) respondents reported one or more moderate/high unmet needs within the last month, of which the most commonly reported were: dealing with uncertainty about the future; fears about the cancer spreading; not being able to do things they used to; concerns about those close to them; lack of energy; anxiety; feelings of sadness and feeling down/depressed. Experiences were poorer, and unmet supportive care needs greater, in patients with unresectable disease. Conclusions. Patients with pancreatic cancer have unmet information and support needs across the cancer trajectory. Psychological and physical support appear to be the biggest gaps in care. Needs should be assessed and supportive care interventions implemented from the point of diagnosis, and monitored regularly to help patients live as good a quality of life as possible

Do lambs perceive regular human stroking as pleasant? Behavior and heart rate variability analyses

Stroking by humans is beneficial to the human-animal relationship and improves welfare in many species that express intraspecific allogrooming, but very few studies have looked at species like sheep that do not express such contact except around parturition. This study investigated the way lambs perceive regular human tactile contact using behavioral and physiological responses. Twenty-four lambs were reared and bucket-fed in groups of four. All were stroked daily by their familiar caregiver. At 8 weeks of age, the lambs were individually tested in their home pen but in a 1×1m open-barred pen after a 15h period of habituation to physical separation from peers while remaining in visual and auditory contact. Half of the lambs received stroking by their caregiver for 8min and half were exposed to their caregiver’s immobile presence. Heart rate and heart rate variability were recorded and analyzed by 2-min slots over the same interval based on three measures: mean heart rate value (HR), root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD) and standard deviation of all intervals measured between consecutive sinus beats (SDNN). Behavioral responses (ear postures of the lamb and time spent in contact with the familiar caregiver, on the knees of the familiar caregiver, and moving) were recorded throughout the test. Lamb HR decreased continuously while in the presence of their caregiver. Lambs being stroked showed slower HR and higher RMSSD which reflected positive emotional states compared to lambs left unstroked. All behavioral variables were highly correlated with the main component axis of the PCA analyses: the more the animals stayed in contact with their caregiver, the less they moved and the more their ears were hanging. This first component clearly differentiates lambs being stroked or not. Behavioral and physiological observations support the hypothesis that gentle physical contact with the caregiver is perceived positively by lambs

Refining and regaining skills in fixation/diversification stage performers: The Five-A Model

Technical change is one of many factors underpinning success in elite, fixation/diversification stage performers. Surprisingly, however, there is a dearth of research pertaining to this process or the most efficacious methods used to bring about such a change. In this paper we highlight the emergent processes, yet also the lack in mechanistic comprehension surrounding technical change, addressing issues within the motor control, sport psychology, coaching and choking literature. More importantly, we seek an understanding of how these changes can be made more secure to competitive pressure, and how this can be embedded within the process of technical change. Following this review, we propose The Five-A Model based on successful coaching techniques, psychosocial concomitants, the avoidance of choking and principles of effective behaviour change. Specific mechanisms for each stage are discussed, with a focus on the use of holistic rhythm-based cues as a possible way of internalising changes. Finally, we suggest the need for further research to examine these five stages, to aid a more comprehensive construction of the content and delivery of such a programme within the applied setting

The Way to a Man's Heart Is through His Stomach: What about Horses?

International audienceBACKGROUND: How do we bond to one another? While in some species, like humans, physical contact plays a role in the process of attachment, it has been suggested that tactile contact's value may greatly differ according to the species considered. Nevertheless, grooming is often considered as a pleasurable experience for domestic animals, even though scientific data is lacking. On another hand, food seems to be involved in the creation of most relationships in a variety of species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study, we used the horse training context to test the effects of food versus grooming during repeated human-horse interactions. The results reveal that food certainly holds a key role in the attachment process, while tactile contact was here clearly insufficient for bonding to occur. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study raises important questions on the way tactile contact is perceived, and shows that large inter-species differences are to be expected

Expression of emotional arousal in two different piglet call types

Humans as well as many animal species reveal their emotional state in their voice. Vocal features show strikingly similar correlation patterns with emotional states across mammalian species, suggesting that the vocal expression of emotion follows highly conserved signalling rules. To fully understand the principles of emotional signalling in mammals it is, however, necessary to also account for any inconsistencies in the way that they are acoustically encoded. Here we investigate whether the expression of emotions differs between call types produced by the same species. We compare the acoustic structure of two common piglet calls—the scream (a distress call) and the grunt (a contact call)—across three levels of arousal in a negative situation. We find that while the central frequency of calls increases with arousal in both call types, the amplitude and tonal quality (harmonic-to-noise ratio) show contrasting patterns: as arousal increased, the intensity also increased in screams, but not in grunts, while the harmonicity increased in screams but decreased in grunts. Our results suggest that the expression of arousal depends on the function and acoustic specificity of the call type. The fact that more vocal features varied with arousal in scream calls than in grunts is consistent with the idea that distress calls have evolved to convey information about emotional arousal