Landmark Models for Optimizing the Use of Repeated Measurements of Risk Factors in Electronic Health Records to Predict Future Disease Risk.

The benefits of using electronic health records (EHRs) for disease risk screening and personalized health-care decisions are being increasingly recognized. Here we present a computationally feasible statistical approach with which to address the methodological challenges involved in utilizing historical repeat measures of multiple risk factors recorded in EHRs to systematically identify patients at high risk of future disease. The approach is principally based on a 2-stage dynamic landmark model. The first stage estimates current risk factor values from all available historical repeat risk factor measurements via landmark-age-specific multivariate linear mixed-effects models with correlated random intercepts, which account for sporadically recorded repeat measures, unobserved data, and measurement errors. The second stage predicts future disease risk from a sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards model, with estimated current risk factor values from the first stage. We exemplify these methods by developing and validating a dynamic 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using primary-care EHRs for age, diabetes status, hypertension treatment, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in 41,373 persons from 10 primary-care practices in England and Wales contributing to The Health Improvement Network (1997-2016). Using cross-validation, the model was well-calibrated (Brier score = 0.041, 95% confidence interval: 0.039, 0.042) and had good discrimination (C-index = 0.768, 95% confidence interval: 0.759, 0.777)

Building the field of health policy and systems research: framing the questions.

In the first of a series of articles addressing the current challenges and opportunities for the development of Health Policy & Systems Research (HPSR), Kabir Sheikh and colleagues lay out the main questions vexing the field

Attitudes to Interprofessional Education Among Health Science Students Engaging in a Multidisciplinary Workshop Series

Introduction: Interprofessional education (IPE) provides an opportunity for students from single-professions to interact with other disciplines. Student attitude to IPE can impact engagement and change in attitude may provide an indicator of the impact of IPE. This study examines pre-workshop attitudes to IPE and change in attitude following a series of three IPE workshops. Methods: Preworkshop attitudes were examined using the Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale (RIPLS) and the Interprofessional Education Perception Scale (IEPS). The IEPS was repeated at the start of Workshop 1 and at the end of Workshop 3. Data were analyzed using linear regression analysis and linear mixed methods for repeated measures. Results: 405 students participated (pre-workshop n=122; workshop 1 n=244; workshop 3 n=236). Pre-workshop attitudinal scores were high. While male gender and studying medicine negatively predicted attitude across some domains, previous experience of a joint patient treatment session on clinical placement positively predicted attitude in the domain of Perception of Actual Cooperation (standardised Beta 0.283, p=0.005). Attitude to IPE improved across all domains of the IEPS from online preparation to the end of workshop 3 (pCompetency and Autonomy, and in the domain of Perceived Need for Cooperation improved only following online preparation, while the domain of Perception of Actual Cooperation improved following both online preparation and participation in the workshops. Discussion: The results presented reflect positively on student readiness for IPE. Attitudes were further improved following engagement in a structured series of IPE workshops

Novel Tumor Suppressor Function of Glucocorticoid-Induced TNF Receptor GITR in Multiple Myeloma

Glucocorticoid-induced TNF receptor (GITR) plays a crucial role in modulating immune response and inflammation, however the role of GITR in human cancers is poorly understood. In this study, we demonstrated that GITR is inactivated during tumor progression in Multiple Myeloma (MM) through promoter CpG island methylation, mediating gene silencing in primary MM plasma cells and MM cell lines. Restoration of GITR expression in GITR deficient MM cells led to inhibition of MM proliferation in vitro and in vivo and induction of apoptosis. These findings were supported by the presence of induction of p21 and PUMA, two direct downstream targets of p53, together with modulation of NF-κB in GITR-overexpressing MM cells. Moreover, the unbalanced expression of GITR in clonal plasma cells correlated with MM disease progression, poor prognosis and survival. These findings provide novel insights into the pivotal role of GITR in MM pathogenesis and disease progression

Associations with photoreceptor thickness measures in the UK Biobank.

Spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) provides high resolution images enabling identification of individual retinal layers. We included 32,923 participants aged 40-69 years old from UK Biobank. Questionnaires, physical examination, and eye examination including SD-OCT imaging were performed. SD OCT measured photoreceptor layer thickness includes photoreceptor layer thickness: inner nuclear layer-retinal pigment epithelium (INL-RPE) and the specific sublayers of the photoreceptor: inner nuclear layer-external limiting membrane (INL-ELM); external limiting membrane-inner segment outer segment (ELM-ISOS); and inner segment outer segment-retinal pigment epithelium (ISOS-RPE). In multivariate regression models, the total average INL-RPE was observed to be thinner in older aged, females, Black ethnicity, smokers, participants with higher systolic blood pressure, more negative refractive error, lower IOPcc and lower corneal hysteresis. The overall INL-ELM, ELM-ISOS and ISOS-RPE thickness was significantly associated with sex and race. Total average of INL-ELM thickness was additionally associated with age and refractive error, while ELM-ISOS was additionally associated with age, smoking status, SBP and refractive error; and ISOS-RPE was additionally associated with smoking status, IOPcc and corneal hysteresis. Hence, we found novel associations of ethnicity, smoking, systolic blood pressure, refraction, IOPcc and corneal hysteresis with photoreceptor thickness

The psychic costs of migration: evidence from Irish return migrants

Within the economics literature, the 'psychic costs' of migration have been incorporated into theoretical models since Sjaastad (J Polit Econ 70:80 93, 1962). However, the existence of such costs has rarely been investigated in empirical papers. In this paper, we look at the psychic costs of migration by using alcohol problems as an indicator. Rather than comparing immigrants and natives, we look at the native-born in a single country and compare those who have lived away for a period of their lives and those who have not. We use data from the first wave of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing which is a large, nationally representative sample of older Irish adults. We find that men who lived away are more likely to have suffered from alcohol problems than men who stayed. For women, we again see a higher incidence of alcohol problems for short-term migrants. However, long-term female migrants are less likely to have suffered from alcohol problems. For these women, it seems that migration provided psychic benefits, and this is consistent with findings fro

Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche.

Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using genome-wide and custom-genotyping arrays in up to 182,416 women of European descent from 57 studies, we found robust evidence (P < 5 × 10(-8)) for 123 signals at 106 genomic loci associated with age at menarche. Many loci were associated with other pubertal traits in both sexes, and there was substantial overlap with genes implicated in body mass index and various diseases, including rare disorders of puberty. Menarche signals were enriched in imprinted regions, with three loci (DLK1-WDR25, MKRN3-MAGEL2 and KCNK9) demonstrating parent-of-origin-specific associations concordant with known parental expression patterns. Pathway analyses implicated nuclear hormone receptors, particularly retinoic acid and γ-aminobutyric acid-B2 receptor signalling, among novel mechanisms that regulate pubertal timing in humans. Our findings suggest a genetic architecture involving at least hundreds of common variants in the coordinated timing of the pubertal transition

Biochemical and Structural Characterization of Selective Allosteric Inhibitors of the Plasmodium falciparum Drug Target, Prolyl-tRNA-synthetase

Plasmodium falciparum (<i>Pf</i>) prolyl-tRNA synthetase (ProRS) is one of the few chemical-genetically validated drug targets for malaria, yet highly selective inhibitors have not been described. In this paper, approximately 40,000 compounds were screened to identify compounds that selectively inhibit <i>Pf</i>ProRS enzyme activity versus Homo sapiens (<i>Hs</i>) ProRS. X-ray crystallography structures were solved for apo, as well as substrate- and inhibitor-bound forms of <i>Pf</i>ProRS. We identified two new inhibitors of <i>Pf</i>ProRS that bind outside the active site. These two allosteric inhibitors showed >100 times specificity for <i>Pf</i>ProRS compared to <i>Hs</i>ProRS, demonstrating this class of compounds could overcome the toxicity related to <i>Hs</i>ProRS inhibition by halofuginone and its analogues. Initial medicinal chemistry was performed on one of the two compounds, guided by the cocrystallography of the compound with <i>Pf</i>ProRS, and the results can instruct future medicinal chemistry work to optimize these promising new leads for drug development against malaria