A Steady Regime of Volume and Heat Transports in the Eastern Arctic Ocean in the Early 21st Century

Mooring observations in the eastern Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean showed that mean 2013–2018 along-slope volume and heat (calculated relative to the freezing temperature) transports in the upper 800 m were 4.8 ± 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) and 34.8 ± 0.6 TW, respectively. Volume and heat transports within the Atlantic Water (AW) layer (∼150–800 m) in 2013–2018 lacked significant temporal shifts at annual and longer time scales: averaged over the two periods of mooring deployment in 2013–2015 and 2015–2018, volume transports were 3.1 ± 0.1 Sv, while AW heat transports were 31.3 ± 1.0 TW and 34.8 ± 0.8 TW. Moreover, the reconstructed AW volume transports over longer, 2003–2018, period of time showed strong interannual variations but lacked a statistically significant trend. However, we found a weak positive trend of 0.08 ± 0.07 Sv/year in the barotropic AW volume transport estimated using dynamic ocean topography (DOT) measurements in 2003–2014 – the longest period spanned by the DOT dataset. Vertical coherence of 2013–2018 transports in the halocline (70–140 m) and AW (∼150–800 m) layers was high, suggesting the essential role of the barotropic forcing in constraining along-slope transports. Quantitative estimates of transports and their variability discussed in this study help identify the role of atlantification in critical changes of the eastern Arctic Ocean.publishedVersio

Anomalous variations in the thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean (Aus dem Russ. übersetzt)

Introduction: In the last two decades, significant changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean as well as in the entire Arctic region. The ice cover of Arctic seas, which was gradually (linearly) decreasing from the beginning of the 20th century to the end of it [1], began to shrink rapidly in the 1990s and in the 21st century [2]. Salinity variations in the upper layer changed sign in different regions [3]. The temperature of Atlantic waters in the Arctic basin started to increase. At the end of the 1990s, stabilization of Atlantic water transport to the Arctic Basin was observed [4], but starting from 2004, the temperature of Atlantic waters in the Eurasian sub-basin increased even more and reached values that had not been observed here previously [5]. In 2007, extreme summer processes in the Arctic that followed this increase and anomalous state of the ice cover and upper layer of the ocean that were formed by the beginning of autumn put forward a pressing problem to evaluate the variation in the thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean as a whole

Тенденции многолетней изменчивости уровня моря на прибрежных станциях Северного Ледовитого океана

New estimates of linear trends in the position of the level surface were obtained as a result of analysis of the data of long-term observations of sea level fluctuations at the stations of the seas of the Arctic Ocean. A rise in sea level is observed at almost all stations. In multi-year fluctuations of the level, periods characterized by different values of linear trends are identified. The reasons for the variability of local linear trends in the level of the Arctic seas from the 1950-1980 stage to the 1990-2015 period are analyzed. It is shown that the presence of local trends during the annual average levels at coast stations is a consequence of changes in climatic conditions reflected in changes in atmospheric and hydrosphere climatic indices, as well as in freshwater river runoff.В результате анализа данных многолетних наблюдений за колебаниями уровня моря на станциях морей Северного Ледовитого океана получены новые оценки линейных трендов изменений положения уровенной поверхности. Практически на всех станциях, за исключением станции Баренцбург, наблюдается повышение уровня моря. В многолетнем ходе колебаний уровня выделены периоды, характеризующиеся различными значениями линейных трендов. Проанализированы причины изменчивости локальных линейных трендов уровня арктических морей от стадии 1950–1980 к стадии 1990–2015 гг. Показано, что наличие локальных трендов в ходе среднегодовых уровней на береговых станциях является следствием изменения климатических условий, отражающихся в изменениях атмосферных и гидросферных климатических индексов, а также пресноводном стоке рек

Secular sea level change in the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): C03042, doi:10.1029/2003JC002007.Sea level is a natural integral indicator of climate variability. It reflects changes in practically all dynamic and thermodynamic processes of terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric origin. The use of estimates of sea level rise as an indicator of climate change therefore incurs the difficulty that the inferred sea level change is the net result of many individual effects of environmental forcing. Since some of these effects may offset others, the cause of the sea level response to climate change remains somewhat uncertain. This paper is focused on an attempt to provide first-order answers to two questions, namely, what is the rate of sea level change in the Arctic Ocean, and furthermore, what is the role of each of the individual contributing factors to observed Arctic Ocean sea level change? In seeking answers to these questions we have discovered that during the period 1954–1989 the observed sea level over the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean is rising at a rate of approximately 0.123 cm yr−1 and that after correction for the process of glacial isostatic adjustment this rate is approximately 0.185 cm yr−1. There are two major causes of this rise. The first is associated with the steric effect of ocean expansion. This effect is responsible for a contribution of approximately 0.064 cm yr−1 to the total rate of rise (35%). The second most important factor is related to the ongoing decrease of sea level atmospheric pressure over the Arctic Ocean, which contributes 0.056 cm yr−1, or approximately 30% of the net positive sea level trend. A third contribution to the sea level increase involves wind action and the increase of cyclonic winds over the Arctic Ocean, which leads to sea level rise at a rate of 0.018 cm yr−1 or approximately 10% of the total. The combined effect of the sea level rise due to an increase of river runoff and the sea level fall due to a negative trend in precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean is close to 0. For the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean it therefore appears that approximately 25% of the trend of 0.185 cm yr−1, a contribution of 0.048 cm yr−1, may be due to the effect of increasing Arctic Ocean mass.This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant 0136432

Heat, salt, and volume transports in the eastern Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean from 2 years of mooring observations

This study discusses along-slope volume, heat, and salt transports derived from observations collected in 2013–2015 using a cross-slope array of six moorings ranging from 250 to 3900&thinsp;m in the eastern Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean. These observations demonstrate that in the upper 780&thinsp;m layer, the along-slope boundary current advected, on average, 5.1±0.1&thinsp;Sv of water, predominantly in the eastward (shallow-to-right) direction. Monthly net volume transports across the Laptev Sea slope vary widely, from  ∼ 0.3±0.8 in April 2014 to  ∼ 9.9±0.8&thinsp;Sv in June 2014; 3.1±0.1&thinsp;Sv (or 60&thinsp;%) of the net transport was associated with warm and salty intermediate-depth Atlantic Water (AW). Calculated heat transport for 2013–2015 (relative to −1.8&thinsp;°C) was 46.0±1.7&thinsp;TW, and net salt transport (relative to zero salinity) was 172±6&thinsp;Mkg&thinsp;s−1. Estimates for AW heat and salt transports were 32.7±1.3&thinsp;TW (71&thinsp;% of net heat transport) and 112±4&thinsp;Mkg&thinsp;s−1 (65&thinsp;% of net salt transport). The variability of currents explains  ∼ 90&thinsp;% of the variability in the heat and salt transports. The remaining  ∼ 10&thinsp;% is controlled by temperature and salinity anomalies together with the temporal variability of the AW layer thickness. The annual mean volume transports decreased by 25&thinsp;% from 5.8±0.2&thinsp;Sv in 2013–2014 to 4.4±0.2&thinsp;Sv in 2014–2015, suggesting that changes in the transports at interannual and longer timescales in the eastern EB may be significant.</p

Sostoyanie sloya atlanticheskikh vod v Severnom Ledovitom okeane v 2007-2009 gg. (The state of Atlantic water layer in the Arctic Ocean in 2007-2009, in Russian)

Oceanographic studies during IPY 2007/2009 provided new information on spatial variability of hydrographic parameters. Detailed pattern of irregularities in the Atlantic Water (AW) layer was documented in the Nansen Basin. Spatial scales of temperature distribution and the depth of the upper boundary of AW were estimated. In the Canadian Basin spatial variations of temperature were less pronounced. During IPY 2007/2008 the area occupied by AW has increased. According to our estimations the positive temperature anomaly in some regions was as high as 1,5°C, which is about 70% of temperature maximum in 1950-1959. The upper boundary of AW (zero degree isotherm) rose by 40-120 m around the Mendeleyev Ridge and in the Amundsen Basin. At the same time, in the Canada Basin and in the western Fram Strait the AW thickness decreased by similar value. Heat content of the AW layer around the major part of the Arctic Ocean exceeded mean climatic value, except for the compact area north of Franz Josef Land, where small negative anomaly was observed. Throughout 2008 mean temperature and maximum temperature in the AW layer were higher than mean climatic values. At the same time, the state of AW layer in the inflow region, east of Fram Strait along the continental margin to the Laptev Sea, substantially changed in comparison with 2007. Mean and maximum temperature of AW dropped by 0,25/0,5°C. Heat content and the Thickness of AW layer have also decreased. Basing on the obtained results, we conclude that during 2008/2009 there was a neneral reverse trend in AW parameters towards mean climatic results

Sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean from AOMIP models

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): C04S08, doi:10.1029/2006JC003916.Monthly sea levels from five Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) models are analyzed and validated against observations in the Arctic Ocean. The AOMIP models are able to simulate variability of sea level reasonably well, but several improvements are needed to reduce model errors. It is suggested that the models will improve if their domains have a minimum depth less than 10 m. It is also recommended to take into account forcing associated with atmospheric loading, fast ice, and volume water fluxes representing Bering Strait inflow and river runoff. Several aspects of sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean are investigated based on updated observed sea level time series. The observed rate of sea level rise corrected for the glacial isostatic adjustment at 9 stations in the Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian seas for 1954–2006 is estimated as 0.250 cm/yr. There is a well pronounced decadal variability in the observed sea level time series. The 5-year running mean sea level signal correlates well with the annual Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the sea level atmospheric pressure (SLP) at coastal stations and the North Pole. For 1954–2000 all model results reflect this correlation very well, indicating that the long-term model forcing and model reaction to the forcing are correct. Consistent with the influences of AO-driven processes, the sea level in the Arctic Ocean dropped significantly after 1990 and increased after the circulation regime changed from cyclonic to anticyclonic in 1997. In contrast, from 2000 to 2006 the sea level rose despite the stabilization of the AO index at its lowest values after 2000.This research is supported by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (under cooperative agreements OPP- 0002239 and OPP- 0327664) with the International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, and by the Climate Change Prediction Program of the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The development of the UW model is also supported by NASA grants NNG04GB03G and NNG04GH52G and NSF grants OPP-0240916 and OPP-0229429

State of the Climate in 2010

Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950. The 2010 average global land and ocean surface temperature was among the two warmest years on record. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate of lower latitudes. The eastern and tropical Pacific Ocean cooled about 1°C from 2009 to 2010, reflecting the transition from the 2009/10 El Niño to the 2010/11 La Niña. Ocean heat fluxes contributed to warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for the past several years have reached values consistently higher than for all prior times in the record, demonstrating the dominant role of the ocean in the Earth’s energy budget. Deep and abyssal waters of Antarctic origin have also trended warmer on average since the early 1990s. Lower tropospheric temperatures typically lag ENSO surface fluctuations by two to four months, thus the 2010 temperature was dominated by the warm phase El Niño conditions that occurred during the latter half of 2009 and early 2010 and was second warmest on record. The stratosphere continued to be anomalously cool. Annual global precipitation over land areas was about five percent above normal. Precipitation over the ocean was drier than normal after a wet year in 2009. Overall, saltier (higher evaporation) regions of the ocean surface continue to be anomalously salty, and fresher (higher precipitation) regions continue to be anomalously fresh. This salinity pattern, which has held since at least 2004, suggests an increase in the hydrological cycle. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic were significantly different than those in the Antarctic during the year. The annual minimum ice extent in the Arctic—reached in September—was the third lowest on record since 1979. In the Antarctic, zonally averaged sea ice extent reached an all-time record maximum from mid-June through late August and again from mid-November through early December. Corresponding record positive Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Indices influenced the Antarctic sea ice extents. Greenland glaciers lost more mass than any other year in the decade-long record. The Greenland Ice Sheet lost a record amount of mass, as the melt rate was the highest since at least 1958, and the area and duration of the melting was greater than any year since at least 1978. High summer air temperatures and a longer melt season also caused a continued increase in the rate of ice mass loss from small glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Coastal sites in Alaska show continuous permafrost warming and sites in Alaska, Canada, and Russia indicate more significant warming in relatively cold permafrost than in warm permafrost in the same geographical area. With regional differences, permafrost temperatures are now up to 2°C warmer than they were 20 to 30 years ago. Preliminary data indicate there is a high probability that 2010 will be the 20th consecutive year that alpine glaciers have lost mass. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise and ozone depleting substances continued to decrease. Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm in 2010, a rate above both the 2009 and the 1980–2010 average rates. The global ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2009 transition period from La Niña to El Niño conditions, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, is estimated to be similar to the long-term average. The 2010 Antarctic ozone hole was among the lowest 20% compared with other years since 1990, a result of warmer-than-average temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere during austral winter between mid-July and early September. List of authors and affiliations... .3 Abstract 16 1. Introduction 17 2. Global Climate 27 a. Overview .. 27 b. Temperature 36; 1. Surface temperature .. 36; 2. Lower tropospheric temperatures 37; 3. Lower stratospheric temperatures .. 38; 4. Lake temperature 39 c. Hydrologic cycle .. 40; I. Surface humidity .. 40; 2. Total column water vapor .41; 3. Precipitation . 42; 4. Northern Hemisphere continental snow cover extent ... 44; 5. Global cloudiness 45; 6. River discharge . 46; 7. Permafrost thermal state . 48; 8. Groundwater and terrestrial water storage .. 49; 9. Soil moisture ..52; 10. Lake levels 53 d. Atmospheric circulation 55; 1. Mean sea level pressure . 55; 2. Ocean surface wind speed 56 e. Earth radiation budget at top-of-atmosphere ... 58 f. Atmosphere composition ...59; 1. Atmosphere chemical composition ...59; 2. Aerosols 65; 3. Stratospheric ozone 67 g. Land surface properties . 68; 1. Alpine glaciers and ice sheets .. 68; 2. Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) ... 72; 3. Biomass burning ... 72; 4. Forest biomass and biomass change .74 3. Global Oceans 77 a. Overview .. 77 b. Sea surface temperatures .. 78 c. Ocean heat content .81 d. Global ocean heat fluxes ... 84 e. Sea surface salinity .. 86 f. Subsurface salinity ... 88 g. Surface currents ... 92; 1. Pacific Ocean 93; 2. Indian Ocean 94; 3. Atlantic Ocean . 95 h. Meridional overturning circulation observations in the subtropical North Atlantic . 95 i. Sea level variations ... 98 j. The global ocean carbon cycle 100; 1. Air-sea carbon dioxide fluxes 100; 2. Subsurface carbon inventory . 102; 3. Global ocean phytoplankton . 105 4. Tropics ... 109 a. Overview 109 b. ENSO and the tropical Pacific 109; 1. Oceanic conditions ... 109; 2. Atmospheric circulation: Tropics .110; 3. Atmospheric circulation: Extratropics ...112; 4. ENSO temperature and precipitation impacts .113 c. Tropical intraseasonal activity .113 d. Tropical cyclones 114; 1. Overview .114; 2. Atlantic basin ...115; 3. Eastern North Pacific basin .121; 4. Western North Pacific basin .. 123; 5. Indian Ocean basins .. 127; 6. Southwest Pacific basin 129; 7. Australian region basin 130 e. Tropical cyclone heat potential .. 132 f. Intertropical Convergence Zones . 134; 1. Pacific ... 134; 2. Atlantic 136 g. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 137 h. Indian Ocean Dipole . 138 5. The arctic ... 143 a. Overview 143 b. Atmosphere 143 c. Ocean .. 145; 1. Wind-driven circulation . 145; 2. Ocean temperature and salinity 145; 3. Biology and geochemistry .. 146; 4. Sea level .. 148 d. Sea ice cover ... 148; 1. Sea ice extent . 148; 2. Sea ice age ... 149; 3. Sea ice thickness 150 e. Land .. 150; 1. Vegetation ... 150; 2. Permafrost ... 152; 3. River discharge ... 153; 4. Terrestrial snow 154; 5. Glaciers outside Greenland 155 f. Greenland ... 156; 1. Coastal surface air temperature . 156; 2. Upper air temperatures . 158; 3. Atmospheric circulation . 158; 4. Surface melt extent and duration and albedo . 159; 5. Surface mass balance along the K-Transect .. 159; 6. Total Greenland mass loss from GRACE . 160; 7. Marine-terminating glacier area changes .. 160 6. ANTARCTICA ..161 a. Overview .161 b. Circulation ...161 c. Surface manned and automatic weather station observations 163 d. Net precipitation ... 164 e. 2009/10 Seasonal melt extent and duration . 167 f. Sea ice extent and concentration .. 167 g. Ozone depletion 170 7. Regional climates ... 173 a. Overview 173 b. North America ... 173; 1. Canada 173; 2. United States .. 175; 3. México . 179 c. Central America and the Caribbean .. 182; 1. Central America 182; 2. The Caribbean ... 183 d. South America .. 186; 1. Northern South America and the Tropical Andes . 186; 2. Tropical South America east of the Andes .. 187; 3. Southern South America 190 e. Africa 192; 1. Northern Africa 192; 2. Western Africa .. 193; 3. Eastern Africa . 194; 4. Southern Africa .. 196; 5. Western Indian Ocean countries 198 f. Europe . 199; 1. Overview 199; 2. Central and Western Europe 202; 3. The Nordic and Baltic countries . 203; 4. Iberia 205; 5. Mediterranean, Italian, and Balkan Peninsulas .206; 6. Eastern Europe .. 207; 7. Middle East ..208 g. Asia ... 210; 1. Russia ... 210; 2. East Asia ..215; 3. South Asia 217; 4. Southwest Asia ...219 h. Oceania ...222; 1. Southwest Pacific ..222; 2. Northwest Pacific, Micronesia .. 224; 3. Australia .. 227; 4. New Zealand .. 229 8. SEASONAL SUMMARIES ... 233 Acknowledgments 237 Appendix: Acronyms and Abbreviations 238 References . 24

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved