Estimating Historical Energy Security Costs

Energy Security is of increasing importance in today’s world, yet little research has been carried out on the costs or benefits of energy security policies. This paper looks at the period after the 1970s to estimate the cost premium of electricity generation due to energy security policies. The cost premium is estimated for France, Germany, Italy and Spain for the period 1980-2000 by estimating actual versus hypothetical lowest cost generation mixes. The cost premium is estimated to be lowest for France, which had a clear energy security policy based around developing nuclear power and reducing reliance on oil and coal.energy security; electric energy; historic cost estimation

COSMIC-2 Precise Orbit Determination

We present initial results for post-processed GNSS orbit and clock estimation for the FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) constellation. The six COSMIC-2 satellites launched on June 25, 2019 into a 24 deg inclination, ~725 km circular orbit. The primary Tri-GNSS Radio-occultation Receiver System (TGRS) payload tracks GPS and GLONASS signals on two upward looking precise orbit determination (POD) antennas. We evaluate three GPS and GPS+GLONASS POD solutions applied at the COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center using the Bernese GNSS Software. The obtained results are very consistent for the six satellites. Orbit precision estimates are below the 10 cm and 0.1 mm/s 3D position and velocity requirements, respectively. A test case applying carrier phase ambiguity resolution indicates this technique may support the generation of more precise orbits in the future

The schizophrenia susceptibility gene neuregulin 1 modulates tolerance to the effects of canabinoids

Cannabis increases the risk of schizophrenia in genetically vulnerable individuals. In this study we aim to show that the schizophrenia susceptibility gene neuregulin 1 (Nrg1) modulates the development of tolerance to cannabinoids in mice. Nrg1 heterozygous (HET) and wild-type (WT) mice were treated daily for 15 d with the synthetic analogue of D9-tetrahydrocannabinol, CP55,940 (0.4 mg/kg). We measured the impact of this exposure on locomotor activity, anxiety, prepulse inhibition (PPI), body temperature and FosB/DFosB immunohistochemistry. Tolerance to CP55,940-induced hypothermia and locomotor suppression developed more rapidly in Nrg1 HET mice than WT mice. Conversely in the light-dark test, while tolerance to the anxiogenic effect of CP55,940 developed in WT mice over days of testing, Nrg1 hypomorphs maintained marked anxiety even after 15 d of treatment. Repeated cannabinoid exposure selectively increased FosB/DFosB expression in the lateral septum, ventral part (LSV) of Nrg1 HET but not WT mice. On day 1 of exposure opposite effects of CP55,940 treatment were observed on PPI, i.e. it was facilitated in Nrg1 hypomorphs and impaired in WT mice, despite the drug significantly impairing the acoustic startle reflex equally in both genotypes. These effects of CP55,940 on PPI were not maintained as both genotypes became tolerant to cannabinoid action with repeated exposure. Our results highlight that Nrg1 modulates the development of cannabinoid tolerance dependent on the parameter being measured. Furthermore, these data reinforce the notion that the VLS is an important brain region involved in Nrg1–cannabinoid interactions

Impact of Cardio-Renal-Metabolic Comorbidities on Cardiovascular Outcomes and Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the incremental contribution of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to the risk of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE), heart failure (HF), and all-cause mortality (ACM) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients and its importance relative to the presence of other cardio-renal-metabolic (CaReMe) comorbidities. METHODS: Patients (≥40 years) were identified at the time of T2DM diagnosis from US (Humedica/Optum) and UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) databases. Patients were monitored post-diagnosis for modified MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, ACM), HF, and ACM. Adjusted hazard ratios were obtained using Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate the relative risk of modified MACE, HF, and ACM due to CKD. Patients were stratified by the presence or absence of atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD) and age. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2015, of 227,224 patients identified with incident T2DM, 40,063 (17.64%) had CKD. Regardless of prior ASCVD, CKD was associated with higher risk of modified MACE, HF, and ACM; this excess hazard was more pronounced in older patients with prior ASCVD. In time-to-event analyses in the overall cohort, patients with T2DM + CKD or T2DM + CKD + hypertension + hyperlipidemia had increased risks for modified MACE, HF, and ACM versus patients with T2DM and no CaReMe comorbidities. Patients with CKD had higher risks for and shorter times to modified MACE, HF, and ACM than those without CKD. CONCLUSION: In T2DM patients, CKD presence was associated with higher risk of modified MACE, HF, and ACM. This may have risk-stratification implications for T2DM patients based on background CKD and highlights the potential importance of novel renoprotective strategies

Turbulent luminance in impassioned van Gogh paintings

We show that the patterns of luminance in some impassioned van Gogh paintings display the mathematical structure of fluid turbulence. Specifically, we show that the probability distribution function (PDF) of luminance fluctuations of points (pixels) separated by a distance R compares notably well with the PDF of the velocity differences in a turbulent flow, as predicted by the statistical theory of A.N. Kolmogorov. We observe that turbulent paintings of van Gogh belong to his last period, during which episodes of prolonged psychotic agitation of this artist were frequent. Our approach suggests new tools that open the possibility of quantitative objective research for art representation

Extending the square root method to account for additive forecast noise in ensemble methods

A square root approach is considered for the problem of accounting for model noise in the forecast step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and related algorithms. The primary aim is to replace the method of simulated, pseudo-random additive so as to eliminate the associated sampling errors. The core method is based on the analysis step of ensemble square root filters, and consists in the deterministic computation of a transform matrix. The theoretical advantages regarding dynamical consistency are surveyed, applying equally well to the square root method in the analysis step. A fundamental problem due to the limited size of the ensemble subspace is discussed, and novel solutions that complement the core method are suggested and studied. Benchmarks from twin experiments with simple, low-order dynamics indicate improved performance over standard approaches such as additive, simulated noise, and multiplicative inflation

Black Hole Mass, Host galaxy classification and AGN activity

We investigate the role of host galaxy classification and black hole mass in a heterogeneous sample of 276 mostly nearby (z<0.1) X-ray and IR selected AGN. Around 90% of Seyfert 1 AGN in bulge-dominated host galaxies (without disk contamination) span a very narrow range in the observed 12um to 2-10keV luminosity ratio (1<R_{IR/X}<7). This narrow dispersion incorporates all possible variations among AGN central engines, including accretion mechanism and efficiency, disk opening angle, orientation to sightline, covering fraction of absorbing material, patchiness of X-ray corona and measured variability. As a result, all models of X-ray and IR production in AGN are very strongly constrained. Among Seyfert 1 AGN, median X-ray and IR luminosities increase with black hole mass at >99% confidence. Using ring morphology of the host galaxy as a proxy for lack of tidal interaction, we find that AGN luminosity in host galaxies within 70Mpc is independent of host galaxy interaction for $\sim$ Gyrs, suggesting that the timescale of AGN activity due to secular evolution is much shorter than that due to tidal interactions. We find that LINER hosts have lower 12um luminosity than the median 12um luminosity of normal disk- and bulge-dominated galaxies which may represent observational evidence for past epochs of feedback that supressed star formation in LINER host galaxies. We propose that nuclear ULXs may account for the X-ray emission from LINER 2s without flat-spectrum, compact radio cores. We confirmed the robustness of our results in X-rays by comparing them with the 14-195keV 22-month BAT survey of AGN, which is all-sky and unbiased by photoelectric absorption.Comment: MNRAS accepted. 14 pages, 11 figures, complete Table 1 in online journa

On the Lagrangian Dynamics of Atmospheric Zonal Jets and the Permeability of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

The Lagrangian dynamics of zonal jets in the atmosphere are considered, with particular attention paid to explaining why, under commonly encountered conditions, zonal jets serve as barriers to meridional transport. The velocity field is assumed to be two-dimensional and incompressible, and composed of a steady zonal flow with an isolated maximum (a zonal jet) on which two or more travelling Rossby waves are superimposed. The associated Lagrangian motion is studied with the aid of KAM (Kolmogorov--Arnold--Moser) theory, including nontrivial extensions of well-known results. These extensions include applicability of the theory when the usual statements of nondegeneracy are violated, and applicability of the theory to multiply periodic systems, including the absence of Arnold diffusion in such systems. These results, together with numerical simulations based on a model system, provide an explanation of the mechanism by which zonal jets serve as barriers to meridional transport of passive tracers under commonly encountered conditions. Causes for the breakdown of such a barrier are discussed. It is argued that a barrier of this type accounts for the sharp boundary of the Antarctic ozone hole at the perimeter of the stratospheric polar vortex in the austral spring.Comment: Submitted to Journal of the Atmospheric Science