The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Implications for Rural Economies

This paper presents a rapid assessment of current and likely future impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on rural economies given their socio-economic characteristics. Drawing principally on current evidence for the UK, as well as lessons from the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak and the 2007/8 financial crises, it outlines the likely key demand and supply effects, paying attention to the situation for agriculture as well as discussing the implications for rural communities. A distinction is made between the effects on businesses offering goods and services for out-of-home as opposed to in-home consumption. Gendered dimensions are also noted as likely business and household strategies for coping and adaptation. The paper concludes with a brief mapping of a research agenda for studying the longer-term effects of COVID-19 on rural economies

A mean-field approach to the propagation of field patterns in stratified magneto rotational turbulence

Local shearing box simulations of stratified magneto rotational turbulence invariably exhibit cyclic field patterns which propagate away from the disc midplane. A common explanation for this is magnetic buoyancy. The recent analysis by Shi et al. however shows that the flow is buoyantly stable below one disc scale height H, necessitating an alternative explanation in this region. We here conduct and analyse direct numerical simulations to explain the observed behaviour by means of a mean-field description. Apart from the mean radial and azimuthal field, we monitor the small-scale current helicity, which we propose as a key indicator for saturation. Reconstructing the horizontally averaged field, we demonstrate that the problem can be reduced to a one-dimensional induction equation. By means of the so-called test field method, we then determine the underlying closure parameters. Our analysis shows that, apart from a possible direct MRI dynamo, two distinct indirect dynamo mechanisms operate in the disc. This resolves the issue of the "wrong" sign of the MRI dynamo effect. Finally, we use the obtained closure parameters to run a dynamically quenched dynamo model. This model approximately recovers the observed field patterns in the mean fields. Moreover, the model reproduces the prevailing parity and the distinct phase pattern in the small-scale current helicity. The latter property might open a potential route to understand the saturation of MRI induced turbulence.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Age-differential relationships among dopamine D1 binding potential, fusiform BOLD signal, and face-recognition performance

Facial recognition ability declines in adult aging, but the neural basis for this decline remains unknown. Cortical areas involved in face recognition exhibit lower dopamine (DA) receptor availability and lower blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal during task performance with advancing adult age. We hypothesized that changes in the relationship between these two neural systems are related to age differences in face-recognition ability. To test this hypothesis, we leveraged positron emission tomography (PET) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to measure D1 receptor binding potential (BPND) and BOLD signal during facerecognition performance. Twenty younger and 20 older participants performed a face-recognition task during fMRI scanning. Face recognition accuracy was lower in older than in younger adults, as were D1 BPND and BOLD signal across the brain. Using linear regression, significant relationships between DA and BOLD were found in both age-groups in face-processing regions. Interestingly, although the relationship was positive in younger adults, it was negative in older adults (i.e., as D1 BPND decreased, BOLD signal increased). Ratios of BOLD:D1 BPND were calculated and relationships to face-recognition performance were tested. Multiple linear regression revealed a significant Group BOLD:D1 BPND Ratio interaction. These results suggest that, in the healthy system, synchrony between neurotransmitter (DA) and hemodynamic (BOLD) systems optimizes the level of BOLD activation evoked for a given DA input (i.e., the gain parameter of the DA input-neural activation function), facilitating task performance. In the aged system, however, desynchronization between these brain systems would reduce the gain parameter of this function, adversely impacting task performance and contributing to reduced face recognition in older adults

Short Circuits in Thermally Ionized Plasmas: A Mechanism for Intermittent Heating of Protoplanetary Disks

Many astrophysical systems of interest, including protoplanetary accretion disks, are made of turbu- lent magnetized gas with near solar metallicity. Thermal ionization of alkali metals in such gas exceeds non-thermal ionization when temperatures climb above roughly 1000 K. As a result, the conductiv- ity, proportional to the ionization fraction, gains a strong, positive dependence on temperature. In this paper, we demonstrate that this relation between the temperature and the conductivity triggers an exponential instability that acts similarly to an electrical short, where the increased conductivity concentrates the current and locally increases the Ohmic heating. This contrasts with the resistiv- ity increase expected in an ideal magnetic reconnection region. The instability acts to focus narrow current sheets into even narrower sheets with far higher currents and temparatures. We lay out the basic principles of this behavior in this paper using protoplanetary disks as our example host system, motivated by observations of chondritic meteorites and their ancestors, dust grains in protoplanetary disks, that reveal the existence of strong, frequent heating events that this instability could explain.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, 1 table Accepted, Ap

The potential of small unmanned aircraft systems and structure-from-motion for topographic surveys: a test of emerging integrated approaches at Cwm Idwal, North Wales

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Geomorphology and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.07.021Novel topographic survey methods that integrate both structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry and small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) are a rapidly evolving investigative technique. Due to the diverse range of survey configurations available and the infancy of these new methods, further research is required. Here, the accuracy, precision and potential applications of this approach are investigated. A total of 543 images of the Cwm Idwal moraine–mound complex were captured from a light (b5 kg) semi-autonomous multi-rotor unmanned aircraft system using a consumer-grade 18 MP compact digital camera. The imageswere used to produce a DSM(digital surfacemodel) of themoraines. The DSMis in good agreement with 7761 total station survey points providing a total verticalRMSE value of 0.517mand verticalRMSE values as lowas 0.200mfor less densely vegetated areas of the DSM. High-precision topographic data can be acquired rapidly using this technique with the resulting DSMs and orthorectified aerial imagery at sub-decimetre resolutions. Positional errors on the total station dataset, vegetation and steep terrain are identified as the causes of vertical disagreement. Whilst this aerial survey approach is advocated for use in a range of geomorphological settings, care must be taken to ensure that adequate ground control is applied to give a high degree of accuracy

Particle Stirring in Turbulent Gas Disks: Including Orbital Oscillations

We describe the diffusion and random velocities of solid particles due to stochastic forcing by turbulent gas. We include the orbital dynamics of Keplerian disks, both in-plane epicycles and vertical oscillations. We obtain a new result for the diffusion of solids. The Schmidt number (ratio of gas to particle diffusivity) is Sc = 1 + (Omega t_stop)^2, in terms of the particle stopping time, t_stop, and the orbital frequency, Omega. The standard result, Sc = 1 + t_stop/t_eddy, in terms of the eddy turnover time, t_eddy, is shown to be incorrect. The main difference is that Sc rises quadratically, not linearly, with stopping time. Consequently, particles larger than ~ 10 cm in protoplanetary disks will suffer less radial diffusion and will settle closer to the midplane. Such a layer of boulders would be more prone to gravitational collapse. Our predictions of RMS speeds, vertical scale height and diffusion coefficients will help interpret numerical simulations. We confirm previous results for the vertical stirring of particles (scale heights and random velocities), and add a correction for arbitrary ratios of eddy to orbital times. The particle layer becomes thinner for t_eddy > 1/Omega, with the strength of turbulent diffusion held fixed. We use two analytic techniques -- the Hinze-Tchen formalism and the Fokker-Planck equation with velocity diffusion -- with identical results when the regimes of validity overlap. We include simple physical arguments for the scaling of our results.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, accepted to Icaru

Study protocol: azithromycin therapy for chronic lung disease of prematurity (AZTEC) - a randomised, placebo-controlled trial of azithromycin for the prevention of chronic lung disease of prematurity in preterm infants

Introduction Chronic lung disease of prematurity (CLD), also known as bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), is a cause of significant respiratory morbidity in childhood and beyond. Coupled with lung immaturity, infections (especially by Ureaplasma spp) are implicated in the pathogenesis of CLD through promotion of pulmonary inflammation. Azithromycin, which is a highly effective against Ureaplasma spp also has potent anti-inflammatory properties. Thus, azithromycin therapy may improve respiratory outcomes by targeting infective and inflammatory pathways. Previous trials using macrolides have not been sufficiently powered to definitively assess CLD rates. To address this, the azithromycin therapy for chronic lung disease of prematurity (AZTEC) trial aims to determine if a 10-day early course of intravenous azithromycin improves rates of survival without CLD when compared with placebo with an appropriately powered study. Methods and analysis 796 infants born at less than 30 weeks’ gestational age who require at least 2 hours of continuous respiratory support within the first 72 hours following birth are being enrolled by neonatal units in the UK. They are being randomised to receive a double-blind, once daily dose of intravenous azithromycin (20 mg/kg for 3 days, followed by 10 mg/kg for a further 7 days), or placebo. CLD is being assessed at 36 weeks’ PMA. Whether colonisation with Ureaplasma spp prior to randomisation modifies the treatment effect of azithromycin compared with placebo will also be investigated. Secondary outcomes include necrotising enterocolitis, intraventricular/cerebral haemorrhage, retinopathy of prematurity and nosocomial infections, development of antibiotic resistance and adverse reactions will be monitored. Ethics and dissemination Ethics permission has been granted by Wales Research Ethics Committee 2 (Ref 18/WA/0199), and regulatory permission by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (Clinical Trials Authorisation reference 21323/0050/001–0001). The study is registered on ISRCTN (ISRCTN11650227). The study is overseen by an independent Data Monitoring Committee and an independent Trial Steering Committee. We shall disseminate our findings via national and international peer-reviewed journals, and conferences. A summary of the findings will also be posted on the trial website

Ice Lines, Planetesimal Composition and Solid Surface Density in the Solar Nebula

To date, there is no core accretion simulation that can successfully account for the formation of Uranus or Neptune within the observed 2-3 Myr lifetimes of protoplanetary disks. Since solid accretion rate is directly proportional to the available planetesimal surface density, one way to speed up planet formation is to take a full accounting of all the planetesimal-forming solids present in the solar nebula. By combining a viscously evolving protostellar disk with a kinetic model of ice formation, we calculate the solid surface density in the solar nebula as a function of heliocentric distance and time. We find three effects that strongly favor giant planet formation: (1) a decretion flow that brings mass from the inner solar nebula to the giant planet-forming region, (2) recent lab results (Collings et al. 2004) showing that the ammonia and water ice lines should coincide, and (3) the presence of a substantial amount of methane ice in the trans-Saturnian region. Our results show higher solid surface densities than assumed in the core accretion models of Pollack et al. (1996) by a factor of 3 to 4 throughout the trans-Saturnian region. We also discuss the location of ice lines and their movement through the solar nebula, and provide new constraints on the possible initial disk configurations from gravitational stability arguments.Comment: Version 2: reflects lead author's name and affiliation change, contains minor changes to text from version 1. 12 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in Icaru

Identifying predictors of attitudes towards local onshore wind development with reference to an English case study

The threats posed by climate change are placing governments under increasing pressure to meet electricity demand from low-carbon sources. In many countries, including the UK, legislation is in place to ensure the continued expansion of renewable energy capacity. Onshore wind turbines are expected to play a key role in achieving these aims. However, despite high levels of public support for onshore wind development in principle, specific projects often experience local opposition. Traditionally this difference in general and specific attitudes has been attributed to NIMBYism (not in my back yard), but evidence is increasingly calling this assumption into question. This study used multiple regression analysis to identify what factors might predict attitudes towards mooted wind development in Sheffield, England. We report on the attitudes of two groups; one group (target) living close to four sites earmarked for development and an unaffected comparison group (comparison). We found little evidence of NIMBYism amongst members of the target group; instead, differences between general and specific attitudes appeared attributable to uncertainty regarding the proposals. The results are discussed with respect to literature highlighting the importance of early, continued and responsive community involvement in combating local opposition and facilitating the deployment of onshore wind turbines. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved