Implementing Options Markets in California To Manage Water Supply Uncertainty

In California, the tremendous spatial and temporal variation in precipitation suggests that flexible contractual arrangements, such as option contracts, would increase allocative efficiency of water over time and space. Under such arrangements, a water agency pays an option premium for the right to purchase water at some point in the future, if water conditions turn out to be dry. The premium represents the value of the flexibility gained by the buyer from postponing its decision whether to purchase water. In California, the seller of existing option arrangements is often an agricultural producer who can fallow land, in the event that a water option is exercised. In this simulation-optimization approach, we seek to determine the value of transferring water uncertainty from one party to another at several locations in California, given current water prices and the spatial and temporal distribution of water year types in the state. (Preliminary analysis covers northern California; future analysis will incorporate southern California.) We analyze within a mathematical programming framework whether increased trading among water agencies across time as well as space would result in significant gains from trade. We use output from CALVIN, an economic-engineering optimization model of the California water system which runs the current configuration of the California water system over historical hydrological conditions, to generate water's imputed price at different locations during different seasons. We also explore reasons why previous theoretical calculations of option value in the western United States have far exceeded option premia on existing bilateral contracts.Risk and Uncertainty,

Calibrated Stochastic Dynamic Models for Resource Management

In this paper we develop a positive calibrated approach to stochastic dynamic programming. Risk aversion, discount rate, and intertemporal substitution preferences of the decision-maker are calibrated by a procedure that minimizes the mean squared error from data on past decisions. We apply this framework to managing stochastic water supplies from Oroville Reservoir, located in Northern California. The calibrated positive SDP closely reproduces the historical storage and releases from the dam and shows sensitivity of optimal decisions to a decision-maker's risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. The calibrated model has average prediction errors that are substantially lower than those from the model with an expected net present value objective.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Ubiquitin Ligase Adaptor NDFIP1 Selectively Enforces a CD8⁺ T Cell Tolerance Checkpoint to High-Dose Antigen

Escape from peripheral tolerance checkpoints that control cytotoxic CD8+ T cells is important for cancer immunotherapy and autoimmunity, but pathways enforcing these checkpoints are mostly uncharted. We reveal that the HECT-type ubiquitin ligase activator, NDFIP1, enforces a cell-intrinsic CD8+ T cell checkpoint that desensitizes TCR signaling during in vivo exposure to high antigen levels. Ndfip1-deficient OT-I CD8+ T cells responding to high exogenous tolerogenic antigen doses that normally induce anergy aberrantly expanded and differentiated into effector cells that could precipitate autoimmune diabetes in RIP-OVAhi mice. In contrast, NDFIP1 was dispensable for peripheral deletion to low-dose exogenous or pancreatic islet-derived antigen and had little impact upon effector responses to Listeria or acute LCMV infection. These data provide evidence that NDFIP1 mediates a CD8+ T cell tolerance checkpoint, with a different mechanism to CD4+ T cells, and indicates that CD8+ T cell deletion and anergy are molecularly separable checkpoints.This work was funded by NIH grant U19-AI100627, by an Australian Government Research Training Program Domestic Scholarship (to M.V.W.), by a Sydney Parker Smith Postdoctoral Research Fellowship from the Cancer Council of Victoria (to J.M.M.), and by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) through Program Grants 1016953, 1113904, and 1054925, Australia Fellowship 585490 (to C.C.G.), Senior Principal Research Fellowship 1081858 (to C.C.G.), CJ Martin Early Career Fellowship 585518 (to I.A.P.), and Independent Research Institutes Infrastructure Support Scheme Grant 361646. Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health and WEHI acknowledge the strong support from the Victorian Government and in particular funding from the Operational Infrastructure Support Grant

Contextual factors among indiscriminate or larger attacks on food or water supplies, 1946-2015

This research updates previous inventories of malicious attacks on food and water to include data from 1946 through mid-2015. A systematic search of news reports, databases and previous inventories of poisoning events was undertaken. Incidents that threatened or were intended to achieve direct harm to humans, and that were either relatively large (number of victims > 4 or indiscriminate in intent or realisation were included. Agents could be chemical, biological or radio-nuclear. Reports of candidate incidents were subjected to systematic inclusion and exclusion criteria as well as validity analysis (not always clearly undertaken in previous inventories of such attacks). We summarise contextual aspects of the attacks that may be important for scenario prioritisation, modelling and defensive preparedness. Opportunity is key to most realised attacks, particularly access to dangerous agents. The most common motives and relative success rate in causing harm were very different between food and water attacks. The likelihood that people were made ill or died also varied by food/water mode, and according to motive and opportunity for delivery of the hazardous agent. Deaths and illness associated with attacks during food manufacture and prior to sale have been fewer than those in some other contexts. Valuable opportunities for food defence improvements are identified in other contexts, especially food prepared in private or community settings

Paedophiles in the community: inter-agency conflict, news leaks and the local press

This article explores the leaking of confidential information about secret Home Office plans to house convicted paedophiles within a local community (albeit inside a prison). It argues that a politics of paedophilia has emerged in which inter-agency consensus on the issue of ‘what to do’ with high-profile sex offenders has broken down. Accordingly, the article situates newspaper ‘outing’ of paedophiles in the community in relation to vigilante journalism and leaked information from official agencies. The article then presents research findings from a case study of news events set in train following a whistle-blowing reaction by Prison Officers’ Association officials to Home Office plans. Drawing from a corpus of 10 interviews with journalists and key protagonists in the story, the article discusses both the dynamics of whistle blowing about paedophiles and also what happens after the whistle has blown

Intensification of hydrological drought in California by human water management

We analyze the contribution of human water management to the intensification and mitigation of hydrological drought over California using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model for the period 1979-2014. We demonstrate that considering water management results in more accurate discharge representation. During the severe 2014 drought, water management alleviated the drought deficit by ∼50% in Southern California through reservoir operation during low flow periods. However, human water consumption (mostly irrigation) in the Central Valley increased drought duration and deficit by 50% and 50-100%, respectively. Return level analysis indicates that there is more than 50% chance that the probability of occurrence of an extreme 2014-magnitude drought event was at least doubled under the influence of human activities compared to natural variability. This impact is most significant over the San Joaquin Drainage basin with a 50% and 75% likelihood that the return period is more than 3.5 and 1.5 times larger, respectively, because of human activities

The role of the exit in the initial screening of investment opportunities: The case of business angel syndicate gatekeepers

The exit process has been largely ignored in business angel research.. The practitioner community identifies the difficulty in achieving exits as the most pressing problem for investors. This has been attributed to the failure of investors to adopt an exit-centric approach to investing. The validity of this claim is examined via a study of the investment approach of 21 ‘gatekeepers’ (managers) of angel groups in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Most gatekeepers say that they do consider the exit when they invest. However, this is contradicted by a verbal protocol analysis which indicates that the exit is not a significant consideration in their initial screening process. The small number of exits achieved by the groups is consistent with the general lack of an exit-centric approach to investing. Only three groups exhibit evidence of a strong exit-centric approach to investing. The lack of exits may have a negative impact on the level of future angel investment activity

Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Tool to Enhance Sustainable Groundwater Management in California

A growing population and an increased demand for water resources have resulted in a global trend of groundwater depletion. Arid and semi-arid climates are particularly susceptible, often relying on groundwater to support large population centers or irrigated agriculture in the absence of sufficient surface water resources. In an effort to increase the security of groundwater resources, managed aquifer recharge (MAR) programs have been developed and implemented globally. MAR is the approach of intentionally harvesting and infiltrating water to recharge depleted aquifer storage. California is a prime example of this growing problem, with three cities that have over a million residents and an agricultural industry that was valued at 47 billion dollars in 2015. The present-day groundwater overdraft of over 100 km3 (since 1962) indicates a clear disparity between surface water supply and water demand within the state. In the face of groundwater overdraft and the anticipated effects of climate change, many new MAR projects are being constructed or investigated throughout California, adding to those that have existed for decades. Some common MAR types utilized in California include injection wells, infiltration basins (also known as spreading basins, percolation basins, or recharge basins), and low-impact development. An emerging MAR type that is actively being investigated is the winter flooding of agricultural fields using existing irrigation infrastructure and excess surface water resources, known as agricultural MAR. California therefore provides an excellent case study to look at the historical use and performance of MAR, ongoing and emerging challenges, novel MAR applications, and the potential for expansion of MAR. Effective MAR projects are an essential tool for increasing groundwater security, both in California and on a global scale. This chapter aims to provide an overview of the most common MAR types and applications within the State of California and neighboring semi-arid regions

Observations of red-giant variable stars by Aboriginal Australians

Aboriginal Australians carefully observe the properties and positions of stars, including both overt and subtle changes in their brightness, for subsistence and social application. These observations are encoded in oral tradition. I examine two Aboriginal oral traditions from South Australia that describe the periodic changing brightness in three pulsating, red-giant variable stars: Betelgeuse (Alpha Orionis), Aldebaran (Alpha Tauri), and Antares (Alpha Scorpii). The Australian Aboriginal accounts stand as the only known descriptions of pulsating variable stars in any Indigenous oral tradition in the world. Researchers examining these oral traditions over the last century, including anthropologists and astronomers, missed the description of these stars as being variable in nature as the ethnographic record contained several misidentifications of stars and celestial objects. Arguably, ethnographers working on Indigenous Knowledge Systems should have academic training in both the natural and social sciences.Comment: The Australian Journal of Anthropology (2018

Stress among UK academics : identifying who copes best?

This paper examined the levels of stress and coping strategies among UK academics. Adopting a positive psychology approach, the influence of the character strengths of hope, optimism, gratitude and self-efficacy, on stress, subjective well-being (SWB), and mental health (GHQ) was examined in 216 academics in a UK university. The study explored the relationship between coping styles and work-coping variables of sense of coherence and work locus of control and stress. No significant differences on the stress, well-being and mental health measures were found for participants' gender, whether in full-time or part-time employment and level of seniority within the university. Participants using problem-focussed coping experienced lower levels of stress while dysfunctional coping was a positive predictor of stress. Hope agency, hope pathway, gratitude, optimism and self-efficacy were the strongest positive predictors of satisfaction with life (SWL), while levels of perceived stress negatively predicted SWL. Gratitude, hope agency and self-efficacy positively predicted positive affect, while stress was a negative predictor. Gratitude, hope agency, self-efficacy and optimism were negative significant predictors of negative affect while stress was a positive predictor. Gratitude positively predicted mental health, while stress was a negative predictor and optimism was a significant moderator of the relationship between stress and mental health. Academics with higher levels of gratitude, self-efficacy, hope and optimism report lower levels of stress at work and higher levels of well-being as measured by higher life satisfaction, higher positive affect and lower negative affect. New approaches to stress management training are suggested based on these findings