A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Open Access ArticleReliable estimates of future changes in extreme weather phenomena, such as tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, are critical for climate change impact assessments and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. However, global and regional climate model outputs are often too coarse for direct use in these applications, with variables such as wind speed having truncated probability distributions compared to those of observations. This poses two problems: How canmodel-simulated variables best be adjusted to make themmore realistic? And how can such adjustments be used to make more reliable predictions of future changes in their distribution? This study investigates North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds from observations (1950- 2010) and regional climate model simulations (1995-2005 and 2045-55 at 12- and 36-km spatial resolutions). The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations). The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories-for example, an increase from 21% (1995-2005) to 27%-37% (2045-55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995- 2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by theWillis Research Network, the Research Program to Secure Energy for America, NSF EASM Grant S1048841, and the NCARWeather and Climate Assessment Science Program. We thank Sherrie Fredrick for extracting data, and Cindy Bruyère, James Done, and Ben Youngman for productive discussions that enhanced this research. We also thank Dr. Adam Monahan and one anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments and suggestions

What is trained during food go/no-go training? A review focusing on mechanisms and a research agenda

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Purpose of Review: During food go/no-go training, people consistently withhold responses toward no-go food items. We discuss how food go/no-go training may change people’s behavior toward no-go food items by comparing three accounts: (a) the training strengthens ‘top-down’ inhibitory control over food-related responses, (b) the training creates automatic ‘bottom-up’ associations between no-go food items and stopping responses, and (c) the training leads to devaluation of no-go food items. Recent Findings: Go/no-go training can reduce intake of food and choices for food and facilitate short-term weight loss. It appears unlikely that food go/no-go training strengthens top-down inhibitory control. There is some evidence suggesting the training could create automatic stop associations. There is strong evidence suggesting go/no-go training reduces evaluations of no-go food items. Summary: Food go/no-go training can change behavior toward food and evaluation of food items. To advance knowledge, more research is needed on the underlying mechanisms of the training, the role of attention during go/no-go training, and on when effects generalize to untrained food items.© The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. About this articl

Evaluating the importance of metamorphism in the foundering of continental crust

The metamorphic conditions and mechanisms required to induce foundering in deep arc crust are assessed using an example of representative lower crust in SW New Zealand. Composite plutons of Cretaceous monzodiorite and gabbro were emplaced at ~1.2 and 1.8 GPa are parts of the Western Fiordland Orthogneiss (WFO); examples of the plutons are tectonically juxtaposed along a structure that excised ~25 km of crust. The 1.8 GPa Breaksea Orthogneiss includes suitably dense minor components (e.g. eclogite) capable of foundering at peak conditions. As the eclogite facies boundary has a positive dP/dT, cooling from supra-solidus conditions (T > 950 ºC) at high-P should be accompanied by omphacite and garnet growth. However, a high monzodioritic proportion and inefficient metamorphism in the Breaksea Orthogneiss resulted in its positive buoyancy and preservation. Metamorphic inefficiency and compositional relationships in the 1.2 GPa Malaspina Pluton meant it was never likely to have developed densities sufficiently high to founder. These relationships suggest that the deep arc crust must have primarily involved significant igneous accumulation of garnet–clinopyroxene (in proportions >75%). Crustal dismemberment with or without the development of extensional shear zones is proposed to have induced foundering of excised cumulate material at P > 1.2 GPa

Neonatal-onset multisystem inflammatory disease responsive to interleukin-1 beta inhibition

BACKGROUND:Neonatal-onset multisystem inflammatory disease is characterized by fever, urticarial rash, aseptic meningitis, deforming arthropathy, hearing loss, and mental retardation. Many patients have mutations in the cold-induced autoinflammatory syndrome 1 (CIAS1) gene, encoding cryopyrin, a protein that regulates inflammation.METHODS:We selected 18 patients with neonatal-onset multisystem inflammatory disease (12 with identifiable CIAS1 mutations) to receive anakinra, an interleukin-1-receptor antagonist (1 to 2 mg per kilogram of body weight per day subcutaneously). In 11 patients, anakinra was withdrawn at three months until a flare occurred. The primary end points included changes in scores in a daily diary of symptoms, serum levels of amyloid A and C-reactive protein, and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate from baseline to month 3 and from month 3 until a disease flare.RESULTS:All 18 patients had a rapid response to anakinra, with disappearance of rash. Diary scores improved (P<0.001) and serum amyloid A (from a median of 174 mg to 8 mg per liter), C-reactive protein (from a median of 5.29 mg to 0.34 mg per deciliter), and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate decreased at month 3 (all P<0.001), and remained low at month 6. Magnetic resonance imaging showed improvement in cochlear and leptomeningeal lesions as compared with baseline. Withdrawal of anakinra uniformly resulted in relapse within days; retreatment led to rapid improvement. There were no drug-related serious adverse events.CONCLUSIONS:Daily injections of anakinra markedly improved clinical and laboratory manifestations in patients with neonatal-onset multisystem inflammatory disease, with or without CIAS1 mutations

The intestinal expulsion of the roundworm Ascaris suum is associated with eosinophils, intra-epithelial T cells and decreased intestinal transit time

Ascaris lumbricoides remains the most common endoparasite in humans, yet there is still very little information available about the immunological principles of protection, especially those directed against larval stages. Due to the natural host-parasite relationship, pigs infected with A. suum make an excellent model to study the mechanisms of protection against this nematode. In pigs, a self-cure reaction eliminates most larvae from the small intestine between 14 and 21 days post infection. In this study, we investigated the mucosal immune response leading to the expulsion of A. suum and the contribution of the hepato-tracheal migration. Self-cure was independent of previous passage through the liver or lungs, as infection with lung stage larvae did not impair self-cure. When animals were infected with 14-day-old intestinal larvae, the larvae were being driven distally in the small intestine around 7 days post infection but by 18 days post infection they re-inhabited the proximal part of the small intestine, indicating that more developed larvae can counter the expulsion mechanism. Self-cure was consistently associated with eosinophilia and intra-epithelial T cells in the jejunum. Furthermore, we identified increased gut movement as a possible mechanism of self-cure as the small intestinal transit time was markedly decreased at the time of expulsion of the worms. Taken together, these results shed new light on the mechanisms of self-cure that occur during A. suum infections

Chess databases as a research vehicle in psychology : modeling large data

The game of chess has often been used for psychological investigations, particularly in cognitive science. The clear-cut rules and well-defined environment of chess provide a model for investigations of basic cognitive processes, such as perception, memory, and problem solving, while the precise rating system for the measurement of skill has enabled investigations of individual differences and expertise-related effects. In the present study, we focus on another appealing feature of chess—namely, the large archive databases associated with the game. The German national chess database presented in this study represents a fruitful ground for the investigation of multiple longitudinal research questions, since it collects the data of over 130,000 players and spans over 25 years. The German chess database collects the data of all players, including hobby players, and all tournaments played. This results in a rich and complete collection of the skill, age, and activity of the whole population of chess players in Germany. The database therefore complements the commonly used expertise approach in cognitive science by opening up new possibilities for the investigation of multiple factors that underlie expertise and skill acquisition. Since large datasets are not common in psychology, their introduction also raises the question of optimal and efficient statistical analysis. We offer the database for download and illustrate how it can be used by providing concrete examples and a step-by-step tutorial using different statistical analyses on a range of topics, including skill development over the lifetime, birth cohort effects, effects of activity and inactivity on skill, and gender differences

Epidemic space

The aim of this article is to highlight the importance of 'spatiality' in understanding the materialization of risk society and cultivation of risk sensibilities. More specifically it provides a cultural analysis of pathogen virulence (as a social phenomenon) by means of tracing and mapping the spatial flows that operate in the uncharted zones between the microphysics of infection and the macrophysics of epidemics. It will be argued that epidemic space consists of three types of forces: the vector, the index and the vortex. It will draw on Latour's Actor Network Theory to argue that epidemic space is geared towards instability when the vortex (of expanding associations and concerns) displaces the index (of finding a single cause)

The sexuality-assemblages of young men: a new materialist analysis

This article presents a new materialist exploration of young men and sexuality that shifts the focus away from bodies and individuals, toward the affective flow within assemblages of bodies, things, ideas and social institutions, and the sexual capacities this flow produces. Using data from two empirical studies, we explore the sexuality assemblages of teen boys and young men, and the micropolitics of these assemblages. We find that the sexuality produced in the bodies of young men is highly territorialised and aggregated by various materialities. However, we also reveal how young men resist these conventional sexualities

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures