Estimation des facteurs de risque de la progression de la scoliose idiopathique de l’adolescence

Cette étude a pour but de tester si l’ajout de variables biomécaniques, telles que celles associées à la morphologie, la posture et l’équilibre, permet d’améliorer l’efficacité à dissocier 29 sujets ayant une scoliose progressive de 45 sujets ayant une scoliose non progressive. Dans une étude rétrospective, un groupe d’apprentissage (Cobb: 27,1±10,6°) a été utilisé avec cinq modèles faisant intervenir des variables cliniques, morphologiques, posturales et d’équilibre et la progression de la scoliose. Un groupe test (Cobb: 14,2±8,3°) a ensuite servit à évaluer les modèles dans une étude prospective. Afin d’établir l’efficacité de l’ajout de variables biomécaniques, le modèle de Lonstein et Carlson (1984) a été utilisé à titre d’étalon de mesures. Le groupe d’apprentissage a été utilisé pour développer quatre modèles de classification. Le modèle sans réduction fut composé de 35 variables tirées de la littérature. Dans le modèle avec réduction, une ANCOVA a servit de méthode de réduction pour passer de 35 à 8 variables et l’analyse par composantes principales a été utilisée pour passer de 35 à 7 variables. Le modèle expert fut composé de huit variables sélectionnées d’après l’expérience clinque. L’analyse discriminante, la régression logistique et l’analyse par composantes principales ont été appliquées afin de classer les sujets comme progressifs ou non progressifs. La régression logistique utilisée avec le modèle sans réduction a présenté l’efficience la plus élevée (0,94), tandis que l’analyse discriminante utilisée avec le modèle expert a montré l’efficience la plus faible (0,87). Ces résultats montrent un lien direct entre un ensemble de paramètres cliniques et biomécaniques et la progression de la scoliose idiopathique. Le groupe test a été utilisé pour appliquer les modèles développés à partir du groupe d’apprentissage. L’efficience la plus élevée (0,89) fut obtenue en utilisant l’analyse discriminante et la régression logistique avec le modèle sans réduction, alors que la plus faible (0,78) fut obtenue en utilisant le modèle de Lonstein et Carlson (1984). Ces valeurs permettent d’avancer que l’ajout de variables biomécaniques aux données cliniques améliore l’efficacité de la dissociation entre des sujets scoliotiques progressifs et non progressifs. Afin de vérifier la précision des modèles, les aires sous les courbes ROC ont été calculées. L’aire sous la courbe ROC la plus importante (0,93) fut obtenue avec l’analyse discriminante utilisée avec le modèle sans réduction, tandis que la plus faible (0,63) fut obtenue avec le modèle de Lonstein et Carlson (1984). Le modèle de Lonstein et Carlson (1984) n’a pu séparer les cas positifs des cas négatifs avec autant de précision que les modèles biomécaniques. L’ajout de variables biomécaniques aux données cliniques a permit d’améliorer l’efficacité de la dissociation entre des sujets scoliotiques progressifs et non progressifs. Ces résultats permettent d’avancer qu’il existe d’autres facteurs que les paramètres cliniques pour identifier les patients à risque de progresser. Une approche basée sur plusieurs types de paramètres tient compte de la nature multifactorielle de la scoliose idiopathique et s’avère probablement mieux adaptée pour en prédire la progression.The purpose of this study is to examine whether the addition of biomechanical variables, such as variables associated with morphology, posture and balance, produce an increase in dissociation efficiency of 29 subjects with progressive scoliosis from 45 subjects with non progressive scoliosis. In a retrospective study, a learning group (Cobb: 27,1±10,6°) was used with five models comprising clinical, morphological, postural and balance variables and scoliosis progression. A testing group (Cobb: 14,2±8,3°) was then used to evaluate the models in a prospective study. In order to establish the efficiency of the addition of biomechanical variables, Lonstein and Carlson’s (1984) model was used as a reference. The learning group was used to develop four classification models. The model without reduction was composed of 35 variables taken from the literature. In the model with reduction, an ANCOVA served as a reduction method to go from 35 to 8 variables and principal component analysis was used to go from 35 to 7 variables. The expert model was composed of eight variables selected according to clinical experience. Discriminant analysis, logistic regression and principal component analysis were applied in order to classify the subjects as progressive or non progressive. Logistic regression used with the model without reduction presented the highest efficiency (0,94), whereas discriminant analysis used with the expert model showed the lowest efficiency (0,87). These results show a direct relation between a group of clinical and biomechanical parameters and idiopathic scoliosis progression. The testing group was used to apply the models developed from the learning group. The highest efficiency (0,89) was obtained with the use of discriminant analysis and logistic regression and the model without reduction, as the lowest (0,78) was obtained with the use of Lonstein and Carlson’s (1984) model. These values suggest that the addition of biomechanical variables to clinical data increases dissociation efficiency between progressive and non progressive scoliotic subjects. In order to verify the precision of the models, the area under the ROC curve was calculated. The largest area under the ROC curve (0,93) was obtained with the discriminant analysis used with the model without reduction, whereas the lowest (0,63) was obtained with Lonstein and Carlson’s (1984) model. Lonstein and Carlson’s (1984) model could not separate the positive cases from the negative cases with the same amount of precision compared with the biomechanical models. The addition of biomechanical variables to clinical data allowed increasing dissociation efficiency between progressive and non progressive scoliotic subjects. These results suggest that factors other than clinical parameters can identify patients at risk of progression. An approach based on many types of parameters takes into account the multi-factorial nature of idiopathic scoliosis and appears to be better adapted to predict it’s progression

Departure from the constant-period ephemeris for the transiting exoplanet WASP-12 b

Most hot Jupiters are expected to spiral in towards their host stars due to transfering of the angular momentum of the orbital motion to the stellar spin. Their orbits can also precess due to planet-star interactions. Calculations show that both effects could be detected for the very-hot exoplanet WASP-12 b using the method of precise transit timing over a timespan of the order of 10 yr. We acquired new precise light curves for 29 transits of WASP-12 b, spannning 4 observing seasons from November 2012 to February 2016. New mid-transit times, together with literature ones, were used to refine the transit ephemeris and analyse the timing residuals. We find that the transit times of WASP-12 b do not follow a linear ephemeris with a 5 sigma confidence level. They may be approximated with a quadratic ephemeris that gives a rate of change in the orbital period of -2.56 +/- 0.40 x 10^{-2} s/yr. The tidal quality parameter of the host star was found to be equal to 2.5 x 10^5 that is comparable to theoretical predictions for Sun-like stars. We also consider a model, in which the observed timing residuals are interpreted as a result of the apsidal precession. We find, however, that this model is statistically less probable than the orbital decay.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A Letter

On the HU Aquarii planetary system hypothesis

In this work, we investigate the eclipse timing of the polar binary HU Aquarii that has been observed for almost two decades. Recently, Qian et al. attributed large (O-C) deviations between the eclipse ephemeris and observations to a compact system of two massive jovian companions. We improve the Keplerian, kinematic model of the Light Travel Time (LTT) effect and re-analyse the whole currently available data set. We add almost 60 new, yet unpublished, mostly precision light curves obtained using the time high-resolution photo-polarimeter OPTIMA, as well as photometric observations performed at the MONET/N, PIRATE and TCS telescopes. We determine new mid--egress times with a mean uncertainty at the level of 1 second or better. We claim that because the observations that currently exist in the literature are non-homogeneous with respect to spectral windows (ultraviolet, X-ray, visual, polarimetric mode) and the reported mid--egress measurements errors, they may introduce systematics that affect orbital fits. Indeed, we find that the published data, when taken literally, cannot be explained by any unique solution. Many qualitatively different and best-fit 2-planet configurations, including self-consistent, Newtonian N-body solutions may be able to explain the data. However, using high resolution, precision OPTIMA light curves, we find that the (O-C) deviations are best explained by the presence of a single circumbinary companion orbiting at a distance of ~4.5 AU with a small eccentricity and having ~7 Jupiter-masses. This object could be the next circumbinary planet detected from the ground, similar to the announced companions around close binaries HW Vir, NN Ser, UZ For, DP Leo or SZ Her, and planets of this type around Kepler-16, Kepler-34 and Kepler-35.Comment: 20 pages, 18 figures, accepted to Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS

Multi-site campaign for transit timing variations of WASP-12 b: possible detection of a long-period signal of planetary origin

The transiting planet WASP-12 b was identified as a potential target for transit timing studies because a departure from a linear ephemeris was reported in the literature. Such deviations could be caused by an additional planet in the system. We attempt to confirm the existence of claimed variations in transit timing and interpret its origin. We organised a multi-site campaign to observe transits by WASP-12 b in three observing seasons, using 0.5-2.6-metre telescopes. We obtained 61 transit light curves, many of them with sub-millimagnitude precision. The simultaneous analysis of the best-quality datasets allowed us to obtain refined system parameters, which agree with values reported in previous studies. The residuals versus a linear ephemeris reveal a possible periodic signal that may be approximated by a sinusoid with an amplitude of 0.00068+/-0.00013 d and period of 500+/-20 orbital periods of WASP-12 b. The joint analysis of timing data and published radial velocity measurements results in a two-planet model which better explains observations than single-planet scenarios. We hypothesize that WASP-12 b might be not the only planet in the system and there might be the additional 0.1 M_Jup body on a 3.6-d eccentric orbit. A dynamical analysis indicates that the proposed two-planet system is stable over long timescales.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&

The Transiting System GJ1214: High-Precision Defocused Transit Observations and a Search for Evidence of Transit Timing Variation

Aims: We present 11 high-precision photometric transit observations of the transiting super-Earth planet GJ1214b. Combining these data with observations from other authors, we investigate the ephemeris for possible signs of transit timing variations (TTVs) using a Bayesian approach. Methods: The observations were obtained using telescope-defocusing techniques, and achieve a high precision with random errors in the photometry as low as 1mmag per point. To investigate the possibility of TTVs in the light curve, we calculate the overall probability of a TTV signal using Bayesian methods. Results: The observations are used to determine the photometric parameters and the physical properties of the GJ1214 system. Our results are in good agreement with published values. Individual times of mid-transit are measured with uncertainties as low as 10s, allowing us to reduce the uncertainty in the orbital period by a factor of two. Conclusions: A Bayesian analysis reveals that it is highly improbable that the observed transit times is explained by TTV, when compared with the simpler alternative of a linear ephemeris.Comment: Submitted to A&

I. Flux and color variations of the quadruply imaged quasar HE 0435-1223

aims: We present VRi photometric observations of the quadruply imaged quasar HE 0435-1223, carried out with the Danish 1.54m telescope at the La Silla Observatory. Our aim was to monitor and study the magnitudes and colors of each lensed component as a function of time. methods: We monitored the object during two seasons (2008 and 2009) in the VRi spectral bands, and reduced the data with two independent techniques: difference imaging and PSF (Point Spread Function) fitting.results: Between these two seasons, our results show an evident decrease in flux by ~0.2-0.4 magnitudes of the four lensed components in the three filters. We also found a significant increase (~0.05-0.015) in their V-R and R-i color indices. conclusions: These flux and color variations are very likely caused by intrinsic variations of the quasar between the observed epochs. Microlensing effects probably also affect the brightest "A" lensed component.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figure

High-precision photometry by telescope defocussing - VI. WASP-24, WASP-25 and WASP-26

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013/) under grant agreement nos. 229517 and 268421. This publication was supported by grants NPRP 09-476-1-078 and NPRP X-019-1-006 from Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation). TCH acknowledges financial support from the Korea Research Council for Fundamental Science and Technology (KRCF) through the Young Research Scientist Fellowship Programme and is supported by the KASI (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) grant 2012-1-410-02/2013-9-400-00. SG, XW and XF acknowledge the support from NSFC under the grant no. 10873031. The research is supported by the ASTERISK project (ASTERoseismic Investigations with SONG and Kepler) funded by the European Research Council (grant agreement no. 267864). DR, YD, AE, FF (ARC), OW (FNRS research fellow) and J Surdej acknowledge support from the Communauté française de Belgique – Actions de recherche concertées – Académie Wallonie-Europe.We present time series photometric observations of 13 transits in the planetary systems WASP-24, WASP-25 and WASP-26. All three systems have orbital obliquity measurements, WASP-24 and WASP-26 have been observed with Spitzer, and WASP-25 was previously comparatively neglected. Our light curves were obtained using the telescope-defocussing method and have scatters of 0.5–1.2 mmag relative to their best-fitting geometric models. We use these data to measure the physical properties and orbital ephemerides of the systems to high precision, finding that our improved measurements are in good agreement with previous studies. High-resolution Lucky Imaging observations of all three targets show no evidence for faint stars close enough to contaminate our photometry. We confirm the eclipsing nature of the star closest to WASP-24 and present the detection of a detached eclipsing binary within 4.25 arcmin of WASP-26.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

High-precision photometry by telescope defocussing. III. The transiting planetary system WASP-2

We present high-precision photometry of three transits of the extrasolar planetary system WASP-2, obtained by defocussing the telescope, and achieving point-to-point scatters of between 0.42 and 0.73 mmag. These data are modelled using the JKTEBOP code, and taking into account the light from the recently-discovered faint star close to the system. The physical properties of the WASP-2 system are derived using tabulated predictions from five different sets of stellar evolutionary models, allowing both statistical and systematic errorbars to be specified. We find the mass and radius of the planet to be M_b = 0.847 +/- 0.038 +/- 0.024 Mjup and R_b = 1.044 +/- 0.029 +/- 0.015 Rjup. It has a low equilibrium temperature of 1280 +/- 21 K, in agreement with a recent finding that it does not have an atmospheric temperature inversion. The first of our transit datasets has a scatter of only 0.42 mmag with respect to the best-fitting light curve model, which to our knowledge is a record for ground-based observations of a transiting extrasolar planet.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 9 pages, 3 figures, 10 table

OGLE-2017-BLG-0329L: A Microlensing Binary Characterized with Dramatically Enhanced Precision Using Data from Space-based Observations

Mass measurements of gravitational microlenses require one to determine the microlens parallax π E, but precise π E measurement, in many cases, is hampered due to the subtlety of the microlens-parallax signal combined with the difficulty of distinguishing the signal from those induced by other higher-order effects. In this work, we present the analysis of the binary-lens event OGLE-2017-BLG-0329, for which π E is measured with a dramatically improved precision using additional data from space-based Spitzer observations. We find that while the parallax model based on the ground-based data cannot be distinguished from a zero-π E model at the 2σ level, the addition of the Spitzer data enables us to identify two classes of solutions, each composed of a pair of solutions according to the well-known ecliptic degeneracy. It is found that the space-based data reduce the measurement uncertainties of the north and east components of the microlens-parallax vector π E by factors ~18 and ~4, respectively. With the measured microlens parallax combined with the angular Einstein radius measured from the resolved caustic crossings, we find that the lens is composed of a binary with component masses of either (M1, M2) ~ (1.1, 0.8) M⊙ or ~(0.4, 0.3) M⊙ according to the two solution classes. The first solution is significantly favored but the second cannot be securely ruled out based on the microlensing data alone. However, the degeneracy can be resolved from adaptive optics observations taken ~10 years after the event