Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures

A Simple Model for the Influence of Meiotic Conversion Tracts on GC Content

A strong correlation between GC content and recombination rate is observed in many eukaryotes, which is thought to be due to conversion events linked to the repair of meiotic double-strand breaks. In several organisms, the length of conversion tracts has been shown to decrease exponentially with increasing distance from the sites of meiotic double-strand breaks. I show here that this behavior leads to a simple analytical model for the evolution and the equilibrium state of the GC content of sequences devoid of meiotic double-strand break sites. In the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, meiotic double-strand breaks are practically excluded from protein-coding sequences. A good fit was observed between the predictions of the model and the variations of the average GC content of the third codon position (GC3) of S. cerevisiae genes. Moreover, recombination parameters that can be extracted by fitting the data to the model coincide with experimentally determined values. These results thus indicate that meiotic recombination plays an important part in determining the fluctuations of GC content in yeast coding sequences. The model also accounted for the different patterns of GC variations observed in the genes of Candida species that exhibit a variety of sexual lifestyles, and hence a wide range of meiotic recombination rates. Finally, the variations of the average GC3 content of human and chicken coding sequences could also be fitted by the model. These results suggest the existence of a widespread pattern of GC variation in eukaryotic genes due to meiotic recombination, which would imply the generality of two features of meiotic recombination: its association with GC-biased gene conversion and the quasi-exclusion of meiotic double-strand breaks from coding sequences. Moreover, the model points out to specific constraints on protein fragments encoded by exon terminal sequences, which are the most affected by the GC bias

Fine Scale Analysis of Crossover and Non-Crossover and Detection of Recombination Sequence Motifs in the Honeybee (Apis mellifera)

BACKGROUND: Meiotic exchanges are non-uniformly distributed across the genome of most studied organisms. This uneven distribution suggests that recombination is initiated by specific signals and/or regulations. Some of these signals were recently identified in humans and mice. However, it is unclear whether or not sequence signals are also involved in chromosomal recombination of insects. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed recombination frequencies in the honeybee, in which genome sequencing provided a large amount of SNPs spread over the entire set of chromosomes. As the genome sequences were obtained from a pool of haploid males, which were the progeny of a single queen, an oocyte method (study of recombination on haploid males that develop from unfertilized eggs and hence are the direct reflect of female gametes haplotypes) was developed to detect recombined pairs of SNP sites. Sequences were further compared between recombinant and non-recombinant fragments to detect recombination-specific motifs. CONCLUSIONS: Recombination events between adjacent SNP sites were detected at an average distance of 92 bp and revealed the existence of high rates of recombination events. This study also shows the presence of conversion without crossover (i. e. non-crossover) events, the number of which largely outnumbers that of crossover events. Furthermore the comparison of sequences that have undergone recombination with sequences that have not, led to the discovery of sequence motifs (CGCA, GCCGC, CCGCA), which may correspond to recombination signals

Effects of Inversions on Within- and Between-Species Recombination and Divergence

Chromosomal inversions disrupt recombination in heterozygotes by both reducing crossing-over within inverted regions and increasing it elsewhere in the genome. The reduction of recombination in inverted regions facilitates the maintenance of hybridizing species, as outlined by various models of chromosomal speciation. We present a comprehensive comparison of the effects of inversions on recombination rates and on nucleotide divergence. Within an inversion differentiating Drosophila pseudoobscura and Drosophila persimilis, we detected one double recombinant among 9,739 progeny from F1 hybrids screened, consistent with published double-crossover frequencies observed within species. Despite similar rates of exchange within and between species, we found no sequence-based evidence of ongoing gene exchange between species within this inversion, but significant exchange was inferred within species. We also observed greater differentiation at regions near inversion breakpoints between species versus within species. Moreover, we observed strong “interchromosomal effect” (higher recombination in inversion heterozygotes between species) with up to 9-fold higher recombination rates along collinear segments of chromosome two in hybrids. Further, we observed that regions most susceptible to changes in recombination rates corresponded to regions with lower recombination rates in homokaryotypes. Finally, we showed that interspecies nucleotide divergence is lower in regions with greater increases in recombination rate, potentially resulting from greater interspecies exchange. Overall, we have identified several similarities and differences between inversions segregating within versus between species in their effects on recombination and divergence. We conclude that these differences are most likely due to lower frequency of heterokaryotypes and to fitness consequences from the accumulation of various incompatibilities between species. Additionally, we have identified possible effects of inversions on interspecies gene exchange that had not been considered previously

Circadian function in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer

This study aimed to evaluate whether patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer experience disrupted rest–activity daily rhythms, poor sleep quality, weakness, and maintain attributes that are linked to circadian function such as fatigue. This report describes the rest–activity patterns of 33 non-small-cell lung cancer patients who participated in a randomised clinical trial evaluating the benefits of melatonin. Data are reported on circadian function, health-related quality of life (QoL), subjective sleep quality, and anxiety/depression levels prior to randomisation and treatment. Actigraphy data, an objective measure of circadian function, demonstrated that patients' rest–activity circadian function differs significantly from control subjects. Our patients reported poor sleep quality and high levels of fatigue. Ferrans and Powers QoL Index instrument found a high level of dissatisfaction with health-related QoL. Data from the European Organization for Research and Treatment for Cancer reported poor capacity to fulfil the activities of daily living. Patients studied in the hospital during or near chemotherapy had significantly more abnormal circadian function than those studied in the ambulatory setting. Our data indicate that measurement of circadian sleep/activity dynamics should be accomplished in the outpatient/home setting for a minimum of 4–7 circadian cycles to assure that they are most representative of the patients' true condition. We conclude that the daily sleep/activity patterns of patients with advanced lung cancer are disturbed. These are accompanied by marked disruption of QoL and function. These data argue for investigating how much of this poor functioning and QoL are actually caused by this circadian disruption, and, whether behavioural, light-based, and or pharmacologic strategies to correct the circadian/sleep activity patterns can improve function and QoL

Cell Type–dependent Requirement for PIP Box–regulated Cdt1 Destruction During S Phase

Previous studies have shown that Cdt1 overexpression in cultured cells can trigger re-replication, but not whether CRL4Cdt2-triggered destruction of Cdt1 is required for normal mitotic cell cycle progression in vivo. We demonstrate that PIP box–mediated destruction of Cdt1Dup during S phase is necessary for the cell division cycle in Drosophila

An Investigation of a Role for U2 snRNP Spliceosomal Components in Regulating Transcription

There is mounting evidence to suggest that the synthesis of pre-mRNA transcripts and their subsequent splicing are coordinated events. Previous studies have implicated the mammalian spliceosomal U2 snRNP as having a novel role in stimulating transcriptional elongation in vitro through interactions with the elongation factors P-TEFb and Tat-SF1; however, the mechanism remains unknown [1]. These factors are conserved in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, a fact that suggests that a similar interaction may occur in yeast to stimulate transcriptional elongation in vivo. To address this possibility we have looked for evidence of a role for the yeast Tat-SF1 homolog, Cus2, and the U2 snRNA in regulating transcription. Specifically, we have performed a genetic analysis to look for functional interactions between Cus2 or U2 snRNA and the P-TEFb yeast homologs, the Bur1/2 and Ctk1/2/3 complexes. In addition, we have analyzed Cus2-deleted or -overexpressing cells and U2 snRNA mutant cells to determine if they show transcription-related phenotypes similar to those displayed by the P-TEFb homolog mutants. In no case have we been able to observe phenotypes consistent with a role for either spliceosomal factor in transcription elongation. Furthermore, we did not find evidence for physical interactions between the yeast U2 snRNP factors and the P-TEFb homologs. These results suggest that in vivo, S. cerevisiae do not exhibit functional or physical interactions similar to those exhibited by their mammalian counterparts in vitro. The significance of the difference between our in vivo findings and the previously published in vitro results remains unclear; however, we discuss the potential importance of other factors, including viral proteins, in mediating the mammalian interactions