Measurement in Economics and Social Science

The paper discusses measurement, primarily in economics, from both analytical and historical perspectives. The historical section traces the commitment to ordinalism on the part of economic theorists from the doctrinal disputes between classical economics and marginalism, through the struggle of orthodox economics against socialism down to the cold-war alliance between mathematical social science and anti-communist ideology. In economics the commitment to ordinalism led to the separation of theory from the quantitative measures that are computed in practice: price and quantity indexes, consumer surplus and real national product. The commitment to ordinality entered political science, via Arrow’s ‘impossibility theorem’, effectively merging it with economics, and ensuring its sterility. How can a field that has as its central result the impossibility of democracy contribute to the design of democratic institutions? The analytical part of the paper deals with the quantitative measures mentioned above. I begin with the conceptual clarification that what these measures try to achieve is a restoration of the money metric that is lost when prices are variable. I conclude that there is only one measure that can be embedded in a satisfactory economic theory, free from unreasonable restrictions. It is the Törnqvist index as an approximation to its theoretical counterpart the Divisia index. The statistical agencies have at various times produced different measures for real national product and its components, as well as related concepts. I argue that all of these are flawed and that a single deflator should be used for the aggregate and the components. Ideally this should be a chained Törnqvist price index defined on aggregate consumption. The social sciences are split. The economic approach is abstract, focused on the assumption of rational and informed behavior, and tends to the political right. The sociological approach is empirical, stresses the non-rational aspects of human behavior and tends to the political left. I argue that the split is due to the fact that the empirical and theoretical traditions were never joined in the social sciences as they were in the natural sciences. I also argue that measurement can potentially help in healing this split

A Spitzer Transmission Spectrum for the Exoplanet GJ 436b, Evidence for Stellar Variability, and Constraints on Dayside Flux Variations

In this paper we describe a uniform analysis of eight transits and eleven secondary eclipses of the extrasolar planet GJ 436b obtained in the 3.6, 4.5, and 8.0 micron bands using the IRAC instrument on the Spitzer Space Telescope between UT 2007 June 29 and UT 2009 Feb 4. We find that the best-fit transit depths for visits in the same bandpass can vary by as much as 8% of the total (4.7 sigma significance) from one epoch to the next. Although we cannot entirely rule out residual detector effects or a time-varying, high-altitude cloud layer in the planet's atmosphere as the cause of these variations, we consider the occultation of active regions on the star in a subset of the transit observations to be the most likely explanation. We reconcile the presence of magnetically active regions with the lack of significant visible or infrared flux variations from the star by proposing that the star's spin axis is tilted with respect to our line of sight, and that the planet's orbit is therefore likely to be misaligned. These observations serve to illustrate the challenges associated with transmission spectroscopy of planets orbiting late-type stars; we expect that other systems, such as GJ 1214, may display comparably variable transit depths. Our measured 8 micron secondary eclipse depths are consistent with a constant value, and we place a 1 sigma upper limit of 17% on changes in the planet's dayside flux in this band. Averaging over the eleven visits gives us an improved estimate of 0.0452% +/- 0.0027% for the secondary eclipse depth. We combine timing information from our observations with previously published data to produce a refined orbital ephemeris, and determine that the best-fit transit and eclipse times are consistent with a constant orbital period. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 26 pages, 18 figures, 7 tables in emulateapj format. Accepted for publication in Ap

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing

Retired A Stars and Their Companions: Eighteen New Jovian Planets

We report the detection of eighteen Jovian planets discovered as part of our Doppler survey of subgiant stars at Keck Observatory, with follow-up Doppler and photometric observations made at McDonald and Fairborn Observatories, respectively. The host stars have masses 0.927 < Mstar /Msun < 1.95, radii 2.5 < Rstar/Rsun < 8.7, and metallicities -0.46 < [Fe/H] < +0.30. The planets have minimum masses 0.9 MJup 0.76 AU. These detections represent a 50% increase in the number of planets known to orbit stars more massive than 1.5 Msun and provide valuable additional information about the properties of planets around stars more massive thantheSun.Comment: ApJS accepted. The \rotate command prevented proper compilation. As a result Tables 19 and 21 do not fit onto the page, causing the final columns (S_HK, Nobs, respectively) to be omitte

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

An HST optical-to-near-IR transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-19b: detection of atmospheric water and likely absence of TiO

Copyright © 2013 Royal Astronomical SocietyWe measure the transmission spectrum of WASP-19b from three transits using low-resolution optical spectroscopy from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). The STIS spectra cover a wavelength range of 0.29–1.03 μm, with resolving power R = 500. The optical data are combined with archival near-infrared data from the HST Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) G141 grism, covering the wavelength range from 1.087 to 1.687 μm, with resolving power R = 130. We reach signal-to-noise levels between 3000 and 11 000 in 0.1 μm bins when measuring the transmission spectra from 0.53–1.687 μm. WASP-19 is known to be a very active star, with the optical stellar flux varying by a few per cent over time. We correct the transit light curves for the effects of stellar activity using ground-based activity monitoring with the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. While we were not able to construct a transmission spectrum using the blue optical data because of the presence of large occulted starspots, we were able to use the spot crossings to help constrain the mean stellar spot temperature. To search for predicted features in the hot-Jupiter atmosphere, in addition to the transmission spectrum we also define spectral indices for differential radius (ΔRP/R⋆) measurements to specifically search for the presence of TiO and alkali line features. Our measurements rule out TiO features predicted for a planet of WASP-19b's equilibrium temperature (2050 K) in the transmission spectrum at the 2.7–2.9σ confidence level, depending on atmospheric model formalism. The WFC3 transmission spectrum shows strong absorption features due to the presence of H2O, which is detected at the 4σ confidence level between 1.1 and 1.4 μm. The transmission spectra results indicate that WASP-19b is a planet with no or low levels of TiO and without a high C/O ratio. The lack of observable TiO features are possibly due to rainout, breakdown from stellar activity or the presence of other absorbers in the optical

Beam test performance of a prototype module with Short Strip ASICs for the CMS HL-LHC tracker upgrade

The Short Strip ASIC (SSA) is one of the four front-end chips designed for the upgrade of the CMS Outer Tracker for the High Luminosity LHC. Together with the Macro-Pixel ASIC (MPA) it will instrument modules containing a strip and a macro-pixel sensor stacked on top of each other. The SSA provides both full readout of the strip hit information when triggered, and, together with the MPA, correlated clusters called stubs from the two sensors for use by the CMS Level-1 (L1) trigger system. Results from the first prototype module consisting of a sensor and two SSA chips are presented. The prototype module has been characterized at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility using a 120 GeV proton beam

Selection of the silicon sensor thickness for the Phase-2 upgrade of the CMS Outer Tracker

During the operation of the CMS experiment at the High-Luminosity LHC the silicon sensors of the Phase-2 Outer Tracker will be exposed to radiation levels that could potentially deteriorate their performance. Previous studies had determined that planar float zone silicon with n-doped strips on a p-doped substrate was preferred over p-doped strips on an n-doped substrate. The last step in evaluating the optimal design for the mass production of about 200 m$^{2}$ of silicon sensors was to compare sensors of baseline thickness (about 300 μm) to thinned sensors (about 240 μm), which promised several benefits at high radiation levels because of the higher electric fields at the same bias voltage. This study provides a direct comparison of these two thicknesses in terms of sensor characteristics as well as charge collection and hit efficiency for fluences up to 1.5 × 10$^{15}$ n$_{eq}$/cm$^{2}$. The measurement results demonstrate that sensors with about 300 μm thickness will ensure excellent tracking performance even at the highest considered fluence levels expected for the Phase-2 Outer Tracker