The POINT-AGAPE Survey: Comparing Automated Searches of Microlensing Events toward M31

Searching for microlensing in M31 using automated superpixel surveys raises a number of difficulties which are not present in more conventional techniques. Here we focus on the problem that the list of microlensing candidates is sensitive to the selection criteria or "cuts" imposed and some subjectivity is involved in this. Weakening the cuts will generate a longer list of microlensing candidates but with a greater fraction of spurious ones; strengthening the cuts will produce a shorter list but may exclude some genuine events. We illustrate this by comparing three analyses of the same data-set obtained from a 3-year observing run on the INT in La Palma. The results of two of these analyses have been already reported: Belokurov et al. (2005) obtained between 3 and 22 candidates, depending on the strength of their cuts, while Calchi Novati et al. (2005) obtained 6 candidates. The third analysis is presented here for the first time and reports 10 microlensing candidates, 7 of which are new. Only two of the candidates are common to all three analyses. In order to understand why these analyses produce different candidate lists, a comparison is made of the cuts used by the three groups...Comment: 28 pages, 24 figures, 9 table

The POINT-AGAPE survey II: An Unrestricted Search for Microlensing Events towards M31

An automated search is carried out for microlensing events using a catalogue of 44554 variable superpixel lightcurves derived from our three-year monitoring program of M31. Each step of our candidate selection is objective and reproducible by a computer. Our search is unrestricted, in the sense that it has no explicit timescale cut. So, it must overcome the awkward problem of distinguishing long-timescale microlensing events from long-period stellar variables. The basis of the selection algorithm is the fitting of the superpixel lightcurves to two different theoretical models, using variable star and blended microlensing templates. Only if microlensing is preferred is an event retained as a possible candidate. Further cuts are made with regard to (i) sampling, (ii) goodness of fit of the peak to a Paczynski curve, (iii) consistency of the microlensing hypothesis with the absence of a resolved source, (iv) achromaticity, (v) position in the colour-magnitude diagram and (vi) signal-to-noise ratio. Our results are reported in terms of first-level candidates, which are the most trustworthy, and second-level candidates, which are possible microlensing but have lower signal-to-noise and are more questionable. The pipeline leaves just 3 first-level candidates, all of which have very short full-width half-maximum timescale (<5 days) and 3 second-level candidates, which have timescales of 31, 36 and 51 days respectively. We also show 16 third-level lightcurves, as an illustration of the events that just fail the threshold for designation as microlensing candidates. They are almost certainly mainly variable stars. Two of the 3 first-level candidates correspond to known events (PA 00-S3 and PA 00-S4) already reported by the POINT-AGAPE project. The remaining first-level candidate is new.Comment: 22 pages, 18 figures, MNRAS, to appea

Early symptoms and sensations as predictors of lung cancer: a machine learning multivariate model.

The aim of this study was to identify a combination of early predictive symptoms/sensations attributable to primary lung cancer (LC). An interactive e-questionnaire comprised of pre-diagnostic descriptors of first symptoms/sensations was administered to patients referred for suspected LC. Respondents were included in the present analysis only if they later received a primary LC diagnosis or had no cancer; and inclusion of each descriptor required ≥4 observations. Fully-completed data from 506/670 individuals later diagnosed with primary LC (n = 311) or no cancer (n = 195) were modelled with orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS). After analysing 145/285 descriptors, meeting inclusion criteria, through randomised seven-fold cross-validation (six-fold training set: n = 433; test set: n = 73), 63 provided best LC prediction. The most-significant LC-positive descriptors included a cough that varied over the day, back pain/aches/discomfort, early satiety, appetite loss, and having less strength. Upon combining the descriptors with the background variables current smoking, a cold/flu or pneumonia within the past two years, female sex, older age, a history of COPD (positive LC-association); antibiotics within the past two years, and a history of pneumonia (negative LC-association); the resulting 70-variable model had accurate cross-validated test set performance: area under the ROC curve = 0.767 (descriptors only: 0.736/background predictors only: 0.652), sensitivity = 84.8% (73.9/76.1%, respectively), specificity = 55.6% (66.7/51.9%, respectively). In conclusion, accurate prediction of LC was found through 63 early symptoms/sensations and seven background factors. Further research and precision in this model may lead to a tool for referral and LC diagnostic decision-making

Associations of sleep-related outcomes with behavioral and emotional functioning in children with overweight/obesity

Objective To evaluate the associations of parent-reported sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) and deviceassessed sleep behaviors with behavioral and emotional functioning in pediatric patients with overweight/ obesity. Study design A total of 109 children with overweight/obesity (mean age, 10.0 (±) 1.1 years) were included in this cross-sectional study. We used the Spanish version of the Pediatric Sleep Questionnaire (PSQ) to assess SDB and its subscales (ie, snoring, daytime sleepiness, and inattention/hyperactivity). Device-assessed sleep behaviors (ie, wake time, sleep onset time, total time in bed, total sleep time, and waking after sleep onset) were estimated using wrist-worn accelerometers. We used the Behavior Assessment System for Children, second edition to assess behavioral and emotional functioning (ie, clinical scale: aggressiveness, hyperactivity, behavior problems, attention problems, atypicality, depression, anxiety, retreat, and somatization; adaptive scale: adaptability, social skills, and leadership). Results SDB was positively associated with all clinical scale variables (all b > 0.197, P ≤ .041) and with lower adaptability and leadership (all b 0.196, P ≤ .045) and lower adaptability (b = 0.246, P = .011). The inattention/hyperactivity subscale was significantly associated with the entire clinical and adaptive scales (all b > |0.192|, P ≤ .046) except for somatization. The snoring subscale and device-assessed sleep behaviors were not related to any behavioral or emotional functioning variables. Conclusions Our study suggests that SDB symptoms, but not deviceassessed sleep behaviors, are associated with behavioral and emotional functioning in children with overweight/obesity. Specifically, daytime sleepiness, a potential SDB symptom, was related to higher attention problems, depression, anxiety, and retreat and lower adaptability. (J Pediatr 2022;246:170-8).The ActiveBrains project was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (DEP2013-47540, DEP2016-79512-R, DEP2017-91544-EXP, and RYC-2011-09011). L.V.T.-L. is supported by a grant from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (FPU17/04802). C.C.-S. is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (FJC2018-037925-I). J.H.M. is supported by a grant from the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sport (FPU15/02645). Additional support was provided by the University of Granada, Plan Propio de Investigación 2016, Excellence actions: Units of Excellence, Scientific Excellence Unit on Exercise and Health, by the Junta de Andalucía, Consejería de Conocimiento, Investigación y Universidades, and European Regional Development Fund (SOMM17/6107/UGR). Funding was also provided by the SAMID III network, RETICS , funded by the PNI + D + I 2017-2021 (Spain), ISCIII Sub-Directorate General for Research Assessment and Promotion, the European Regional Development Fund (RD16/0022 ), the EXERNET Research Network on Exercise and Health ( DEP2005-00046/ACTI ; 09/UPB/19; 45/UPB/20; 27/UPB/21), the European Union's 2020 Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement 667302, and the HL-PIVOT network Healthy Living for Pandemic Event Protection . Additional funding was obtained from the Andalusian Operational Programme supported with European Regional Development Fund (project B-CTS-355-UGR18)

Cosmic shear requirements on the wavelength-dependence of telescope point spread functions

Cosmic shear requires high precision measurement of galaxy shapes in the presence of the observational Point Spread Function (PSF) that smears out the image. The PSF must therefore be known for each galaxy to a high accuracy. However, for several reasons, the PSF is usually wavelength dependent, therefore the differences between the spectral energy distribution of the observed objects introduces further complexity. In this paper we investigate the effect of the wavelength-dependence of the PSF, focusing on instruments in which the PSF size is dominated by the diffraction-limit of the telescope and which use broad-band filters for shape measurement. We first calculate biases on cosmological parameter estimation from cosmic shear when the stellar PSF is used uncorrected. Using realistic galaxy and star spectral energy distributions and populations and a simple three-component circular PSF we find that the colour-dependence must be taken into account for the next generation of telescopes. We then consider two different methods for removing the effect (i) the use of stars of the same colour as the galaxies and (ii) estimation of the galaxy spectral energy distribution using multiple colours and using a telescope model for the PSF. We find that both of these methods correct the effect to levels below the tolerances required for per-cent level measurements of dark energy parameters. Comparison of the two methods favours the template-fitting method because its efficiency is less dependent on galaxy redshift than the broad-band colour method and takes full advantage of deeper photometry.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, version accepted for publication in MNRA

Cosmological Systematics Beyond Nuisance Parameters : Form Filling Functions

In the absence of any compelling physical model, cosmological systematics are often misrepresented as statistical effects and the approach of marginalising over extra nuisance systematic parameters is used to gauge the effect of the systematic. In this article we argue that such an approach is risky at best since the key choice of function can have a large effect on the resultant cosmological errors. As an alternative we present a functional form filling technique in which an unknown, residual, systematic is treated as such. Since the underlying function is unknown we evaluate the effect of every functional form allowed by the information available (either a hard boundary or some data). Using a simple toy model we introduce the formalism of functional form filling. We show that parameter errors can be dramatically affected by the choice of function in the case of marginalising over a systematic, but that in contrast the functional form filling approach is independent of the choice of basis set. We then apply the technique to cosmic shear shape measurement systematics and show that a shear calibration bias of |m(z)|< 0.001(1+z)^0.7 is required for a future all-sky photometric survey to yield unbiased cosmological parameter constraints to percent accuracy. A module associated with the work in this paper is available through the open source iCosmo code available at http://www.icosmo.org .Comment: 24 pages, 18 figures, accepted to MNRA

Proinsulin C-peptide elicits disaggregation of insulin resulting in enhanced physiological insulin effects

Using surface plasmon resonance (SPR) and electrospray mass spectrometry (ESI-MS), proinsulin C-peptide was found to influence insulin-insulin interactions. In SPR with chip-bound insulin, C-peptide mixed with analyte insulin increased the binding, while alone C-peptide did not. A control peptide with the same residues in random sequence had little effect. In ESI-MS, C-peptide lowered the presence of insulin hexamer. The data suggest that C-peptide promotes insulin disaggregation. Insulin/insulin oligomer μM dissociation constants were determined. Compatible with these findings, type 1 diabetic patients receiving insulin and C-peptide developed 66% more stimulation of glucose metabolism than when given insulin alone. A role of C-peptide in promoting insulin disaggregation may be important physiologically during exocytosis of pancreatic β-cell secretory granulae and pharmacologically at insulin injection sites. It is compatible with the normal co-release of C-peptide and insulin and may contribute to the beneficial effect of C-peptide and insulin replacement in type 1 diabetics

The Angstrom Project: a microlensing survey of the structure and composition of the bulge of the Andromeda galaxy

The Andromeda Galaxy Stellar Robotic Microlensing Project (The Angstrom Project) aims to use stellar microlensing events to trace the structure and composition of the inner regions of the Andromeda Galaxy (M31). We present microlensing rate and timescale predictions and spatial distributions for stellar and sub-stellar lens populations in combined disk and barred bulge models of M31. We show that at least half of the stellar microlenses in and around the bulge are expected to have characteristic durations between 1 and 10 days, rising to as much as 80% for brown-dwarf dominated mass functions. These short-duration events are mostly missed by current microlensing surveys that are looking for Macho candidates in the M31 dark matter halo. Our models predict that an intensive monitoring survey programme such as Angstrom, which will be able to detect events of durations upwards of a day, could detect around 30 events per season within ~5 arcminutes of the M31 centre, due to ordinary low-mass stars and remnants. This yield increases to more than 60 events for brown-dwarf dominated mass functions. The overall number of events and their average duration are sensitive diagnostics of the bulge mass, in particular the contribution of low-mass stars and brown dwarfs. The combination of an inclined disk, an offset bar-like bulge, and differences in the bulge and disk luminosity functions results in a four-way asymmetry in the number of events expected in each quadrant defined by the M31 disk axes. The asymmetry is sensitive to the bar prolongation, orientation and mass.Comment: 9 pages, submitted to MNRA