Control strategies with human factors for active steering

Autonomous road vehicles are an increasingly popular research topic due to their potential to reduce the number of road deaths and road accidents while increasing energy efficiency of the vehicle and reducing congestion. To ensure a successful implementation of driverless cars, it is necessary that the vehicle's behaviour is acceptable to its occupants; that they feel as safe and comfortable as reasonably possible. What the resulting behaviour and driving style is like is different for different people and so it is necessary that an autonomous vehicle can change its performance accordingly. This thesis presents an investigation into how existing human factor models can be incorporated into a control framework. By including models of human preference directly into a control methodology, it is possible to study how their explicit inclusion changes vehicle behaviour. The proposed hierarchical Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework is evaluated in simulation for a constant speed, Active Steering Control (ASC) implementation. This aspect of autonomous behaviour is demonstrated as it represents a typical scenario, motorway driving, and it is illustrative of the effect that human factors can have on controller design and implementation. Published driving study data is used to create different percentile drivers, allowing for the evaluation of different driving styles. The resulting behaviour is analysed and evaluated quantifiably so that the effect that human preferences have on system performance can be understood. Vehicle models are implemented in software and validated against established results. These models are used as both the system plant in the (MPC) formulation and as simulation models of the vehicle itself. It is demonstrated that the lower fidelity models have good agreement with more advanced, and complex, vehicle models. This allows for a simpler design process, as the vehicle-controller behaviour can be simulated much more quickly. A standard linear (MPC) formulation is then presented and its performance is demonstrated for the active steering control task. The ability to effectively constrain the vehicle’s lateral acceleration is shown, along with MPC's flexibility, by demonstrating All-Wheel Steering (AWS) performance. The necessity of providing suitable reference trajectories is demonstrated, which leads to the development of a hierarchical control framework, which creates reference trajectories for the (ASC) to track. This developed framework is then used to implement human factor aware driving behaviour. Human factor parameters from the literature are included directly into the MPC formulation. It is shown that incorporating human factor models of lateral acceleration preference, solely as constraints in the MPC steering module, does not provide a large differentiation in driving styles. This is because changes only occur at edge cases in driving scenarios and the human factor derived constraint is `active'. Incorporating the models into the MPC cost function, in conjunction with constraints, increases the differences in performance by allowing for a trade-off between reference tracking of system states and lateral acceleration. To allow for this trade-off for a range of longitudinal velocities and human acceleration tolerance, a penalty model is presented that determines the relative influence of the lateral acceleration penalty in the cost function. Although the method is attractive due to its ease of implementation, it is shown that its effectiveness is limited in scenarios where other concerns dominate, such as respecting road bound limits. Nevertheless, the models presented in this thesis, along with the results and conclusions obtained from them, provide a demonstration of how human factor issues can be included explicitly into a control framework for autonomous driving

Hierarchical Control for Trajectory Generation and Tracking Via Active Front Steering

A new hierarchical model predictive controller for autonomous vehicle steering control is presented. The controller generates a path of shortest distance by determining lateral coordinates on a longitudinal grid, while respecting road bounds. This path is then parameterized by arc length before being optimized to restrict the normal acceleration values along the trajectory's arc length. The optimized tra-jectory is then tracked using a nonlinear model predictive control scheme using a bicycle plant model to calculate an optimal steering angle for the tires. The proposed controller is evaluated in simulation during a double-lane-change maneuver, where it generates and tracks a reference trajectory while observing the road boundaries and acceleration limits. Its performance is compared to a controller without path optimization, along with another that uses a smooth, predetermined, reference path instead of creating its own initial reference. It is shown that the proposed controller improves the tracking compared to a controller without path optimization, with a four-times reduction in average lateral tracking error. The average lateral acceleration is also reduced by 6%. The controller also maintains the tracking performance of a controller that uses a smooth reference path, while showing a much greater flexibility due to its ability to create its own initial reference path rather than having to follow a predetermined trajectory

A systematic review of sample size estimation accuracy on power in malaria cluster randomised trials measuring epidemiological outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are the gold standard for measuring the community-wide impacts of malaria control tools. CRTs rely on well-defined sample size estimations to detect statistically significant effects of trialled interventions, however these are often predicted poorly by triallists. Here, we review the accuracy of predicted parameters used in sample size calculations for malaria CRTs with epidemiological outcomes. METHODS: We searched for published malaria CRTs using four online databases in March 2022. Eligible trials included those with malaria-specific epidemiological outcomes which randomised at least six geographical clusters to study arms. Predicted and observed sample size parameters were extracted by reviewers for each trial. Pair-wise Spearman's correlation coefficients (rs) were calculated to assess the correlation between predicted and observed control-arm outcome measures and effect sizes (relative percentage reductions) between arms. Among trials which retrospectively calculated an estimate of heterogeneity in cluster outcomes, we recalculated study power according to observed trial estimates. RESULTS: Of the 1889 records identified and screened, 108 articles were eligible and comprised of 71 malaria CRTs. Among 91.5% (65/71) of trials that included sample size calculations, most estimated cluster heterogeneity using the coefficient of variation (k) (80%, 52/65) which were often predicted without using prior data (67.7%, 44/65). Predicted control-arm prevalence moderately correlated with observed control-arm prevalence (rs: 0.44, [95%CI: 0.12,0.68], p-value < 0.05], with 61.2% (19/31) of prevalence estimates overestimated. Among the minority of trials that retrospectively calculated cluster heterogeneity (20%, 13/65), empirical values contrasted with those used in sample size estimations and often compromised study power. Observed effect sizes were often smaller than had been predicted at the sample size stage (72.9%, 51/70) and were typically higher in the first, compared to the second, year of trials. Overall, effect sizes achieved by malaria interventions tested in trials decreased between 1995 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings reveal sample size parameters in malaria CRTs were often inaccurate and resulted in underpowered studies. Future trials must strive to obtain more representative epidemiological sample size inputs to ensure interventions against malaria are adequately evaluated. REGISTRATION: This review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022315741)

Salsalate treatment following traumatic brain injury reduces inflammation and promotes a neuroprotective and neurogenic transcriptional response with concomitant functional recovery

Neuroinflammation plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of traumatic brain injury (TBI). TBI induces rapid activation of astrocytes and microglia, infiltration of peripheral leukocytes, and secretion of inflammatory cytokines. In the context of modest or severe TBI, such inflammation contributes to tissue destruction and permanent brain damage. However, it is clear that the inflammatory response is also necessary to promote post-injury healing. To date, anti-inflammatory therapies, including the broad class of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), have met with little success in treatment of TBI, perhaps because these drugs have inhibited both the tissue-damaging and repair-promoting aspects of the inflammatory response, or because inhibition of inflammation alone is insufficient to yield therapeutic benefit. Salsalate is an unacetylated salicylate with long history of use in limiting inflammation. This drug is known to block activation of NF-jB, and recent data suggest that salsalate has a number of additional biological activities, which may also contribute to its efficacy in treatment of human disease. Here, we show that salsalate potently blocks pro-inflammatory gene expression and nitrite secretion by microglia in vitro. Using the controlled cortical impact (CCI) model in mice, we find that salsalate has a broad antiinflammatory effect on in vivo TBI-induced gene expression, when administered post-injury. Interestingly, salsalate also elevates expression of genes associated with neuroprotection and neurogenesis, including the neuropeptides, oxytocin and thyrotropin releasing hormone. Histological analysis reveals salsalate-dependent decreases in numbers and activation-associated morphological changes in microglia/macrophages, proximal to the injury site. Flow cytometry data show that salsalate changes the kinetics of CCI-induced accumulation of various populations of CD11b-positive myeloid cells in the injured brain. Behavioral assays demonstrate that salsalate treatment promotes significant recovery of function following CCI. These pre-clinical data suggest that salsalate may show promise as a TBI therapy with a multifactorial mechanism of action to enhance functional recovery

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Background: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. Methods: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as “at increased risk of severe COVID-19” in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection–hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection–hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. Findings: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from &lt;5% of those younger than 20 years to &gt;66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% [3–9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from &lt;1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3–12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2–7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. Interpretation: About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. Funding: UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Correlations between psychometric schizotypy, scan path length, fixations on the eyes and face recognition.

Psychometric schizotypy in the general population correlates negatively with face recognition accuracy, potentially due to deficits in inhibition, social withdrawal, or eye-movement abnormalities. We report an eye-tracking face recognition study in which participants were required to match one of two faces (target and distractor) to a cue face presented immediately before. All faces could be presented with or without paraphernalia (e.g., hats, glasses, facial hair). Results showed that paraphernalia distracted participants, and that the most distracting condition was when the cue and the distractor face had paraphernalia but the target face did not, while there was no correlation between distractibility and participants' scores on the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire (SPQ). Schizotypy was negatively correlated with proportion of time fixating on the eyes and positively correlated with not fixating on a feature. It was negatively correlated with scan path length and this variable correlated with face recognition accuracy. These results are interpreted as schizotypal traits being associated with a restricted scan path leading to face recognition deficits

Effect of a Perioperative, Cardiac Output-Guided Hemodynamic Therapy Algorithm on Outcomes Following Major Gastrointestinal Surgery A Randomized Clinical Trial and Systematic Review

Importance: small trials suggest that postoperative outcomes may be improved by the use of cardiac output monitoring to guide administration of intravenous fluid and inotropic drugs as part of a hemodynamic therapy algorithm.Objective: to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of a perioperative, cardiac output–guided hemodynamic therapy algorithm.Design, setting, and participants: OPTIMISE was a pragmatic, multicenter, randomized, observer-blinded trial of 734 high-risk patients aged 50 years or older undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery at 17 acute care hospitals in the United Kingdom. An updated systematic review and meta-analysis were also conducted including randomized trials published from 1966 to February 2014.Interventions: patients were randomly assigned to a cardiac output–guided hemodynamic therapy algorithm for intravenous fluid and inotrope (dopexamine) infusion during and 6 hours following surgery (n=368) or to usual care (n=366).Main outcomes and measures: the primary outcome was a composite of predefined 30-day moderate or major complications and mortality. Secondary outcomes were morbidity on day 7; infection, critical care–free days, and all-cause mortality at 30 days; all-cause mortality at 180 days; and length of hospital stay.Results: baseline patient characteristics, clinical care, and volumes of intravenous fluid were similar between groups. Care was nonadherent to the allocated treatment for less than 10% of patients in each group. The primary outcome occurred in 36.6% of intervention and 43.4% of usual care participants (relative risk [RR], 0.84 [95% CI, 0.71-1.01]; absolute risk reduction, 6.8% [95% CI, ?0.3% to 13.9%]; P?=?.07). There was no significant difference between groups for any secondary outcomes. Five intervention patients (1.4%) experienced cardiovascular serious adverse events within 24 hours compared with none in the usual care group. Findings of the meta-analysis of 38 trials, including data from this study, suggest that the intervention is associated with fewer complications (intervention, 488/1548 [31.5%] vs control, 614/1476 [41.6%]; RR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.71-0.83]) and a nonsignificant reduction in hospital, 28-day, or 30-day mortality (intervention, 159/3215 deaths [4.9%] vs control, 206/3160 deaths [6.5%]; RR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.67-1.01]) and mortality at longest follow-up (intervention, 267/3215 deaths [8.3%] vs control, 327/3160 deaths [10.3%]; RR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-1.00]).Conclusions and relevance: in a randomized trial of high-risk patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery, use of a cardiac output–guided hemodynamic therapy algorithm compared with usual care did not reduce a composite outcome of complications and 30-day mortality. However, inclusion of these data in an updated meta-analysis indicates that the intervention was associated with a reduction in complication rate

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700