Evolutionary instability of Zero Determinant strategies demonstrates that winning isn't everything

Zero Determinant (ZD) strategies are a new class of probabilistic and conditional strategies that are able to unilaterally set the expected payoff of an opponent in iterated plays of the Prisoner's Dilemma irrespective of the opponent's strategy, or else to set the ratio between a ZD player's and their opponent's expected payoff. Here we show that while ZD strategies are weakly dominant, they are not evolutionarily stable and will instead evolve into less coercive strategies. We show that ZD strategies with an informational advantage over other players that allows them to recognize other ZD strategies can be evolutionarily stable (and able to exploit other players). However, such an advantage is bound to be short-lived as opposing strategies evolve to counteract the recognition.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures. Change in title (again!) to comply with Nature Communications requirements. To appear in Nature Communication

Making sense of risk. Donor risk communication in families considering living liverdonation to a child

This paper contributes to the growing line of thought in bioethics that respect for autonomy should not be equated to the facilitation of individualistic self determination through standard requirements of informed consent in all healthcare contexts. The paper describes how in the context of donation for living related liver transplantation (LRLT) meaningful, responsible decision making is often embedded within family processes and its negotiation. We suggest that good donor risk communication in families promote “conscientious autonomy” and “reflective trust”. From this, the paper offers the suggestion that transplant teams and other relevant professionals have to broaden their role and responsibility for risk communication beyond proper disclosure by addressing the impact of varied psychosocial conditions on risk interpretation and assessment for potential donors and family stakeholders. In conclusion, we suggest further research questions on how professional responsibility and role-taking in risk communication should be morally understood

Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups

Patterns of word use both reflect and influence a myriad of human activities and interactions. Like other entities that are reproduced and evolve, words rise or decline depending upon a complex interplay between {their intrinsic properties and the environments in which they function}. Using Internet discussion communities as model systems, we define the concept of a word niche as the relationship between the word and the characteristic features of the environments in which it is used. We develop a method to quantify two important aspects of the size of the word niche: the range of individuals using the word and the range of topics it is used to discuss. Controlling for word frequency, we show that these aspects of the word niche are strong determinants of changes in word frequency. Previous studies have already indicated that word frequency itself is a correlate of word success at historical time scales. Our analysis of changes in word frequencies over time reveals that the relative sizes of word niches are far more important than word frequencies in the dynamics of the entire vocabulary at shorter time scales, as the language adapts to new concepts and social groupings. We also distinguish endogenous versus exogenous factors as additional contributors to the fates of words, and demonstrate the force of this distinction in the rise of novel words. Our results indicate that short-term nonstationarity in word statistics is strongly driven by individual proclivities, including inclinations to provide novel information and to project a distinctive social identity.Comment: Supporting Information is available here: http://www.plosone.org/article/fetchSingleRepresentation.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0019009.s00

Designing for human–agent collectives: display considerations

The adoption of unmanned systems is growing at a steady rate, with the promise of improved task effectiveness and decreased costs associated with an increasing multitude of operations. The added flexibility that could potentially enable a single operator to control multiple unmanned platforms is thus viewed as a potential game-changer in terms of both cost and effectiveness. The use of advanced technologies that facilitate the control of multiple systems must lie within control frameworks that allow the delegation of authority between the human and the machine(s). Agent-based systems have been used across different domains in order to offer support to human operators, either as a form of decision support offered to the human or to directly carry out behaviours that lead to the achievement of a defined goal. This paper discusses the need for adopting a human–agent interaction paradigm in order to facilitate an effective human–agent partnership. An example of this is discussed, in which a single human operator may supervise and control multiple unmanned platforms within an emergency response scenario

The Energy Landscape, Folding Pathways and the Kinetics of a Knotted Protein

The folding pathway and rate coefficients of the folding of a knotted protein are calculated for a potential energy function with minimal energetic frustration. A kinetic transition network is constructed using the discrete path sampling approach, and the resulting potential energy surface is visualized by constructing disconnectivity graphs. Owing to topological constraints, the low-lying portion of the landscape consists of three distinct regions, corresponding to the native knotted state and to configurations where either the N- or C-terminus is not yet folded into the knot. The fastest folding pathways from denatured states exhibit early formation of the N-terminus portion of the knot and a rate-determining step where the C-terminus is incorporated. The low-lying minima with the N-terminus knotted and the C-terminus free therefore constitute an off-pathway intermediate for this model. The insertion of both the N- and C-termini into the knot occur late in the folding process, creating large energy barriers that are the rate limiting steps in the folding process. When compared to other protein folding proteins of a similar length, this system folds over six orders of magnitude more slowly.Comment: 19 page

PERT: A Method for Expression Deconvolution of Human Blood Samples from Varied Microenvironmental and Developmental Conditions

The cellular composition of heterogeneous samples can be predicted using an expression deconvolution algorithm to decompose their gene expression profiles based on pre-defined, reference gene expression profiles of the constituent populations in these samples. However, the expression profiles of the actual constituent populations are often perturbed from those of the reference profiles due to gene expression changes in cells associated with microenvironmental or developmental effects. Existing deconvolution algorithms do not account for these changes and give incorrect results when benchmarked against those measured by well-established flow cytometry, even after batch correction was applied. We introduce PERT, a new probabilistic expression deconvolution method that detects and accounts for a shared, multiplicative perturbation in the reference profiles when performing expression deconvolution. We applied PERT and three other state-of-the-art expression deconvolution methods to predict cell frequencies within heterogeneous human blood samples that were collected under several conditions (uncultured mono-nucleated and lineage-depleted cells, and culture-derived lineage-depleted cells). Only PERT's predicted proportions of the constituent populations matched those assigned by flow cytometry. Genes associated with cell cycle processes were highly enriched among those with the largest predicted expression changes between the cultured and uncultured conditions. We anticipate that PERT will be widely applicable to expression deconvolution strategies that use profiles from reference populations that vary from the corresponding constituent populations in cellular state but not cellular phenotypic identity

EuroQol (EQ-5D) measure of quality of life predicts mortality, emergency department utilization, and hospital discharge rates in HIV-infected adults under care

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) is a relevant and quantifiable outcome of care. We implemented HR-QOL assessment at all primary care visits at UCSD Owen Clinic using EQ-5D. The study aim was to estimate the prognostic value of EQ-5D for survival, hospitalization, and emergency department (ED) utilization after controlling for CD4 and HIV plasma viral load (pVL). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of HIV clinic based cohort (1996–2000). The EQ-5D includes single item measures of: mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression. Each item is coded using 3-levels (1 = no problems; 2 = some problems; 3 = severe problems). The instrument includes a global rating of current health using a visual analog scale (VAS) ranging from 0 (worst imaginable) to 100 (best imaginable). An additional single item measure of health change (better, much the same, worse) was included. A predicted VAS (pVAS) was estimated by regressing the 5 EQ-5D health states on VAS using reference cell coding of health states and random effects linear models. Survival models were fit using Cox modelling. Hospitalization and ED rate models were estimated using population-averaged Poisson models. RESULTS: 965 patients met eligibility criteria. 12% were female; 42% were non-white. Median time-at-risk was 1.2 years. Median CD4 was 233. Median log(10)(pVL) was 4.6. 47 deaths occurred. In two Cox models controlling for CD4 and pVL, the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for VAS and pVAS as time-varying covariates were 0.73 (95% CI: 0.63–0.83) and 0.66 (95% CI: 0.56–0.77) respectively, for every 10 point increase in (p)VAS rating. In Poisson regression models predicting ED visit rates and hospital discharge rates controlling for current CD4 and pVL, each of the EQ-5D health dimensions, VAS, and health change items were significantly (p < 0.05) associated with the outcomes. For ED visit rates, the adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) were 0.86 (0.83–0.89) and 0.79 (0.75–0.82) for VAS and pVAS, respectively. For hospital discharge rates, the aIRR's were 0.85 (0.82–0.88) and 0.79 (0.75–0.82) for VAS and pVAS, respectively. CONCLUSION: EQ-5D is a brief and prognostically useful predictor of mortality, hospitalization, and ED utilization among adults under care for HIV infection, even after adjusting for CD4 and HIV plasma viral load

Behavioral and Endocrine Consequences of Simultaneous Exposure to Two Different Stressors in Rats: Interaction or Independence?

Although behavioral and endocrine consequences of acute exposure to stressors have been extensively studied, little is known about how simultaneous exposure to two different stressors interacts to induce short- and long-term effects. In the present experiment we studied this interaction in adult male rats exposed to cat fur odor (impregnated cloth) or immobilization on boards either separately or simultaneously. We reasoned that exposure to the odor of a potential predator while immobilized, may potentiate its negative consequences as compared to exposure to only one of the stressors. Exposure to cat odor elicited the expected reduction of activity and avoidance of the area where the impregnated cloth was located. The endocrine response (plasma levels of ACTH and corticosterone, as a measure of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, HPA) was markedly greater after immobilization than after cat fur odor and no additive effects were found by simultaneous exposure to both stressors. Cat odor, but not immobilization, increased anxiety-like behavior as evaluated in the elevated plus-maze 7 days after the stressors, with no evidence of enhanced HPA activation. In addition, cat odor exposure resulted in long-lasting (8 days later) fear conditioning to the box containing a clean cloth, which was reflected by hypoactivity, avoidance of the cloth area and enhanced HPA activation. All these effects were similarly observed in rats exposed simultaneously to cat odor and immobilization. In rats only exposed to immobilization, only some weak behavioral signs of fear conditioning were found, but HPA activation in response to the context paired to immobilization was enhanced to the same extent as in cat odor-exposed animals, supporting a certain degree of endocrine conditioning. The present results did not reveal important behavioral interactions between the two stressors when animals experienced both simultaneously, whereas some interactions were found regarding HPA activation. Theoretical implications are discussed