Probability: modeling and applications to random processes

This is a review of the book "Probability: Modeling and Applications to Random Processes" by Gregory K. Miller

Monte Carlo simulation for radiative kaon decays

For high precision measurements of K decays, the presence of radiated photons cannot be neglected. The Monte Carlo simulations must include the radiative corrections in order to compute the correct event counting and efficiency calculations. In this paper we briefly describe a method for simulating such decays.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figur

Pitting Corrosion in Austenitic Stainless Steel Water Tanks of Hotel Trains

The water storage tanks of hotel trains suffered pitting corrosion. To identify the cause, the tanks were subjected to a detailed metallographic study and the chemical composition of the austenitic stainless steels used in their construction was determined. Both the tank water and the corrosion products were further examined by physicochemical and microbiological testing. Corrosion was shown to be related to an incompatibility between the chloride content of the water and the base and filler metals of the tanks. These findings formed the basis of recommendations aimed at the prevention and control of corrosion in such tanks. Se han detectado problemas de corrosión por picaduras en los depósitos de agua de trenes hotel. Para identificar las causas se llevó a cabo un detallado estudio metalográfico así como de la composición química de los aceros inoxidables austeníticos utilizados en su construcción. También se realizaron estudios fisicoquímicos y microbiológicos de los productos de corrosión. Se ha encontrado que los problemas de corrosión están relacionados con la incompatibilidad entre el contenido en cloruros del agua y los metales base y de aporte de la soldadura de los tanques. En base a estos hallazgos se proponen una serie de recomendaciones encaminadas a la prevención y control de la corrosión de dichos depósitos

Prediction of the ballistic limit of an aluminium sandwich panel

This paper presents research on modelling the impact of a 150g projectile on a 35mm thick aluminium sandwich panel. The objective of the work is a predictive modelling capability for the ballistic limit of the panel. A predictive modelling capability supports the design of capture and deorbit missions for large items of space debris such as satellites and rocket upper stages. A detailed explicit finite element model was built using the LSDYNA software and results were compared with experimental data for the projectile exit velocity to establish key parameters. The primary parameters influencing the model behaviour were the strength and failure of the aluminium face sheets and the friction between projectile and panel. The model results showed good agreement with experimental results for ogive nose projectiles, but overestimated the exit velocity for flat nose projectiles.This work was funded by the European Space Agency under a contract with Airbus Defence and Space

Evaporative cooling systems to improve internal comfort in industrial buildings

Several studies were carried out to determine how hot or cold environments can affect task performance and can influence productivity. Usually, HVAC plants are exactly designed in order to guarantee comfortable internal conditions inside built environments, but not all kind of buildings are equipped with a heating or cooling plant, like for example, some industrial buildings. These buildings are often characterized by high internal thermal loads. For those buildings the ability of different plant configurations to improve indoor thermal conditions was considered taking into account the influence of several parameters, like weather conditions, internal gains, thermal transmittance, ventilation air flow rate, etc. Simulation results are compared in terms of energy savings and thermal comfort. \ua9 2017 The Author(s)

Clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of low-intensity interventions in the management of obsessive–compulsive disorder: the Obsessive–Compulsive Treatment Efficacy randomised controlled Trial (OCTET)

Background: The Obsessive–Compulsive Treatment Efficacy randomised controlled Trial emerged from a research recommendation in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) guidelines, which specified the need to evaluate cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) treatment intensity formats. Objectives: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of two low-intensity CBT interventions [supported computerised cognitive–behavioural therapy (cCBT) and guided self-help]: (1) compared with waiting list for high-intensity CBT in adults with OCD at 3 months; and (2) plus high-intensity CBT compared with waiting list plus high-intensity CBT in adults with OCD at 12 months. To determine patient and professional acceptability of low-intensity CBT interventions. Design: A three-arm, multicentre, randomised controlled trial. Setting: Improving Access to Psychological Therapies services and primary/secondary care mental health services in 15 NHS trusts. Participants: Patients aged ≥ 18 years meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fourth Edition criteria for OCD, on a waiting list for high-intensity CBT and scoring ≥ 16 on the Yale–Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (indicative of at least moderate severity OCD) and able to read English. Interventions: Participants were randomised to (1) supported cCBT, (2) guided self-help or (3) a waiting list for high-intensity CBT. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was OCD symptoms using the Yale–Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale – Observer Rated. Results: Patients were recruited from 14 NHS trusts between February 2011 and May 2014. Follow-up data collection was complete by May 2015. There were 475 patients randomised: supported cCBT (n = 158); guided self-help (n = 158) and waiting list for high-intensity CBT (n = 159). Two patients were excluded post randomisation (one supported cCBT and one waiting list for high-intensity CBT); therefore, data were analysed for 473 patients. In the short term, prior to accessing high-intensity CBT, guided self-help demonstrated statistically significant benefits over waiting list, but these benefits did not meet the prespecified criterion for clinical significance [adjusted mean difference –1.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) –3.27 to –0.55; p = 0.006]. Supported cCBT did not demonstrate any significant benefit (adjusted mean difference –0.71, 95% CI –2.12 to 0.70). In the longer term, access to guided self-help and supported cCBT, prior to high-intensity CBT, did not lead to differences in outcomes compared with access to high-intensity CBT alone. Access to guided self-help and supported cCBT led to significant reductions in the uptake of high-intensity CBT; this did not seem to compromise patient outcomes at 12 months. Taking a decision-making approach, which focuses on which decision has a higher probability of being cost-effective, rather than the statistical significance of the results, there was little evidence that supported cCBT and guided self-help are cost-effective at the 3-month follow-up compared with a waiting list. However, by the 12-month follow-up, data suggested a greater probability of guided self-help being cost-effective than a waiting list from the health- and social-care perspective (60%) and the societal perspective (80%), and of supported cCBT being cost-effective compared with a waiting list from both perspectives (70%). Qualitative interviews found that guided self-help was more acceptable to patients than supported cCBT. Professionals acknowledged the advantages of low intensity interventions at a population level. No adverse events occurred during the trial that were deemed to be suspected or unexpected serious events. Limitations: A significant issue in the interpretation of the results concerns the high level of access to high-intensity CBT during the waiting list period. Conclusions: Although low-intensity interventions are not associated with clinically significant improvements in OCD symptoms, economic analysis over 12 months suggests that low-intensity interventions are cost-effective and may have an important role in OCD care pathways. Further research to enhance the clinical effectiveness of these interventions may be warranted, alongside research on how best to incorporate them into care pathways

Challenges in assessing the sunscreen-melanoma association

Source at https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.31997.Whether sunscreen use affects melanoma risk has been widely studied with contradictory results. To answer this question we performed a systematic review of all published studies, accounting for sources of heterogeneity and bias. We searched for original articles investigating the sunscreen‐melanoma association in humans to February 28, 2018. We then used random‐effects meta‐analysis to combine estimates of the association, stratified by study design. Stratified meta‐analysis and meta‐regression were used to identify sources of heterogeneity. We included 21,069 melanoma cases from 28 studies published 1979–2018: 23 case–control (11 hospital‐based, 12 population‐based), 1 ecological, 3 cohort and 1 randomised controlled trial (RCT). There was marked heterogeneity across study designs and among case–control studies but adjustment for confounding by sun exposure, sunburns and phenotype systematically moved estimates toward decreased melanoma risk among sunscreen users. Ever‐ vs. never‐use of sunscreen was inversely associated with melanoma in hospital‐based case–control studies (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.57, 95%confidence interval (CI) 0.37–0.87, Pheterogeneity Pheterogeneity Pheterogeneity = 0.236). The association differed by latitude (Pinteraction = 0.042), region (Pinteraction = 0.008), adjustment for naevi/freckling (Pinteraction = 0.035), and proportion of never‐sunscreen‐users (Pinteraction = 0·012). Evidence from observational studies on sunscreen use and melanoma risk was weak and heterogeneous, consistent with the challenges of controlling for innate confounding by indication. The only RCT showed a protective effect of sunscreen