An Exact Formula for the Average Run Length to False Alarm of the Generalized Shiryaev-Roberts Procedure for Change-Point Detection under Exponential Observations

We derive analytically an exact closed-form formula for the standard minimax Average Run Length (ARL) to false alarm delivered by the Generalized Shiryaev-Roberts (GSR) change-point detection procedure devised to detect a shift in the baseline mean of a sequence of independent exponentially distributed observations. Specifically, the formula is found through direct solution of the respective integral (renewal) equation, and is a general result in that the GSR procedure's headstart is not restricted to a bounded range, nor is there a "ceiling" value for the detection threshold. Apart from the theoretical significance (in change-point detection, exact closed-form performance formulae are typically either difficult or impossible to get, especially for the GSR procedure), the obtained formula is also useful to a practitioner: in cases of practical interest, the formula is a function linear in both the detection threshold and the headstart, and, therefore, the ARL to false alarm of the GSR procedure can be easily computed.Comment: 9 pages; Accepted for publication in Proceedings of the 12-th German-Polish Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Application

Dietary Supplementation with Soluble Plantain Non-Starch Polysaccharides Inhibits Intestinal Invasion of Salmonella Typhimurium in the Chicken

Soluble fibres (non-starch polysaccharides, NSP) from edible plants but particularly plantain banana (Musa spp.), have been shown in vitro and ex vivo to prevent various enteric pathogens from adhering to, or translocating across, the human intestinal epithelium, a property that we have termed contrabiotic. Here we report that dietary plantain fibre prevents invasion of the chicken intestinal mucosa by Salmonella. In vivo experiments were performed with chicks fed from hatch on a pellet diet containing soluble plantain NSP (0 to 200 mg/d) and orally infected with S.Typhimurium 4/74 at 8 d of age. Birds were sacrificed 3, 6 and 10 d post-infection. Bacteria were enumerated from liver, spleen and caecal contents. In vitro studies were performed using chicken caecal crypts and porcine intestinal epithelial cells infected with Salmonella enterica serovars following pre-treatment separately with soluble plantain NSP and acidic or neutral polysaccharide fractions of plantain NSP, each compared with saline vehicle. Bacterial adherence and invasion were assessed by gentamicin protection assay. In vivo dietary supplementation with plantain NSP 50 mg/d reduced invasion by S.Typhimurium, as reflected by viable bacterial counts from splenic tissue, by 98.9% (95% CI, 98.1–99.7; P<0.0001). In vitro studies confirmed that plantain NSP (5–10 mg/ml) inhibited adhesion of S.Typhimurium 4/74 to a porcine epithelial cell-line (73% mean inhibition (95% CI, 64–81); P<0.001) and to primary chick caecal crypts (82% mean inhibition (95% CI, 75–90); P<0.001). Adherence inhibition was shown to be mediated via an effect on the epithelial cells and Ussing chamber experiments with ex-vivo human ileal mucosa showed that this effect was associated with increased short circuit current but no change in electrical resistance. The inhibitory activity of plantain NSP lay mainly within the acidic/pectic (homogalacturonan-rich) component. Supplementation of chick feed with plantain NSP was well tolerated and shows promise as a simple approach for reducing invasive salmonellosis

Constraining New Physics with a Positive or Negative Signal of Neutrino-less Double Beta Decay

We investigate numerically how accurately one could constrain the strengths of different short-range contributions to neutrino-less double beta decay in effective field theory. Depending on the outcome of near-future experiments yielding information on the neutrino masses, the corresponding bounds or estimates can be stronger or weaker. A particularly interesting case, resulting in strong bounds, would be a positive signal of neutrino-less double beta decay that is consistent with complementary information from neutrino oscillation experiments, kinematical determinations of the neutrino mass, and measurements of the sum of light neutrino masses from cosmological observations. The keys to more robust bounds are improvements of the knowledge of the nuclear physics involved and a better experimental accuracy.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures. Minor changes. Matches version published in JHE

Microbial catabolic activities are naturally selected by metabolic energy harvest rate

The fundamental trade-off between yield and rate of energy harvest per unit of substrate has been largely discussed as a main characteristic for microbial established cooperation or competition. In this study, this point is addressed by developing a generalized model that simulates competition between existing and not experimentally reported microbial catabolic activities defined only based on well-known biochemical pathways. No specific microbial physiological adaptations are considered, growth yield is calculated coupled to catabolism energetics and a common maximum biomass-specific catabolism rate (expressed as electron transfer rate) is assumed for all microbial groups. Under this approach, successful microbial metabolisms are predicted in line with experimental observations under the hypothesis of maximum energy harvest rate. Two microbial ecosystems, typically found in wastewater treatment plants, are simulated, namely: (i) the anaerobic fermentation of glucose and (ii) the oxidation and reduction of nitrogen under aerobic autotrophic (nitrification) and anoxic heterotrophic and autotrophic (denitrification) conditions. The experimentally observed cross feeding in glucose fermentation, through multiple intermediate fermentation pathways, towards ultimately methane and carbon dioxide is predicted. Analogously, two-stage nitrification (by ammonium and nitrite oxidizers) is predicted as prevailing over nitrification in one stage. Conversely, denitrification is predicted in one stage (by denitrifiers) as well as anammox (anaerobic ammonium oxidation). The model results suggest that these observations are a direct consequence of the different energy yields per electron transferred at the different steps of the pathways. Overall, our results theoretically support the hypothesis that successful microbial catabolic activities are selected by an overall maximum energy harvest rate

Vaccines against toxoplasma gondii : challenges and opportunities

Development of vaccines against Toxoplasma gondii infection in humans is of high priority, given the high burden of disease in some areas of the world like South America, and the lack of effective drugs with few adverse effects. Rodent models have been used in research on vaccines against T. gondii over the past decades. However, regardless of the vaccine construct, the vaccines have not been able to induce protective immunity when the organism is challenged with T. gondii, either directly or via a vector. Only a few live, attenuated T. gondii strains used for immunization have been able to confer protective immunity, which is measured by a lack of tissue cysts after challenge. Furthermore, challenge with low virulence strains, especially strains with genotype II, will probably be insufficient to provide protection against the more virulent T. gondii strains, such as those with genotypes I or II, or those genotypes from South America not belonging to genotype I, II or III. Future studies should use animal models besides rodents, and challenges should be performed with at least one genotype II T. gondii and one of the more virulent genotypes. Endpoints like maternal-foetal transmission and prevention of eye disease are important in addition to the traditional endpoint of survival or reduction in numbers of brain cysts after challenge

A 50% Reduction of Excitability but Not of Intercellular Coupling Affects Conduction Velocity Restitution and Activation Delay in the Mouse Heart

Computer simulations suggest that intercellular coupling is more robust than membrane excitability with regard to changes in and safety of conduction. Clinical studies indicate that SCN5A (excitability) and/or Connexin43 (Cx43, intercellular coupling) expression in heart disease is reduced by approximately 50%. In this retrospective study we assessed the effect of reduced membrane excitability or intercellular coupling on conduction in mouse models of reduced excitability or intercellular coupling. Epicardial activation mapping of LV and RV was performed on Langendorff-perfused mouse hearts having the following: 1) Reduced excitability: Scn5a haploinsufficient mice; and 2) reduced intercellular coupling: Cx43(CreER(T)/fl) mice, uninduced (50% Cx43) or induced (10% Cx43) with Tamoxifen. Wild type (WT) littermates were used as control. Conduction velocity (CV) restitution and activation delay were determined longitudinal and transversal to fiber direction during S(1)S(1) pacing and S(1)S(2) premature stimulation until the effective refractory period. In both animal models, CV restitution and activation delay in LV were not changed compared to WT. In contrast, CV restitution decreased and activation delay increased in RV during conduction longitudinal but not transverse to fiber direction in Scn5a heterozygous animals compared to WT. In contrast, a 50% reduction of intercellular coupling did not affect either CV restitution or activation delay. A decrease of 90% Cx43, however, resulted in decreased CV restitution and increased activation delay in RV, but not LV. Reducing excitability but not intercellular coupling by 50% affects CV restitution and activation delay in RV, indicating a higher safety factor for intercellular coupling than excitability in R

Early Epidemiological Assessment of the Virulence of Emerging Infectious Diseases: A Case Study of an Influenza Pandemic

Background: The case fatality ratio (CFR), the ratio of deaths from an infectious disease to the number of cases, provides an assessment of virulence. Calculation of the ratio of the cumulative number of deaths to cases during the course of an epidemic tends to result in a biased CFR. The present study develops a simple method to obtain an unbiased estimate of confirmed CFR (cCFR), using only the confirmed cases as the denominator, at an early stage of epidemic, even when there have been only a few deaths. Methodology/Principal Findings: Our method adjusts the biased cCFR by a factor of underestimation which is informed by the time from symptom onset to death. We first examine the approach by analyzing an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong (2003) with known unbiased cCFR estimate, and then investigate published epidemiological datasets of novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in the USA and Canada (2009). Because observation of a few deaths alone does not permit estimating the distribution of the time from onset to death, the uncertainty is addressed by means of sensitivity analysis. The maximum likelihood estimate of the unbiased cCFR for influenza may lie in the range of 0.16-4.48% within the assumed parameter space for a factor of underestimation. The estimates for influenza suggest that the virulence is comparable to the early estimate in Mexico. Even when there have been no deaths, our model permits estimating a conservative upper bound of the cCFR. Conclusions: Although one has to keep in mind that the cCFR for an entire population is vulnerable to its variations among sub-populations and underdiagnosis, our method is useful for assessing virulence at the early stage of an epidemic and for informing policy makers and the public. © 2009 Nishiura et al.published_or_final_versio

Universal Alcohol/Drug Screening in Prenatal Care: A Strategy for Reducing Racial Disparities? Questioning the Assumptions

Agencies and organizations promoting universal screening for alcohol and drug use in prenatal care argue that universal screening will reduce White versus Black racial disparities in reporting to Child Protective Services (CPS) at delivery. Yet, no published research has assessed the impact of universal screening on reporting disparities or explored plausible mechanisms. This review defines two potential mechanisms: Equitable Surveillance and Effective Treatment and identifies assumptions underlying each mechanism. It reviews published literature relating to each assumption. Research relating to assumptions underlying each mechanism is primarily inconclusive or contradictory. Thus, available research does not support the claim that universal screening for alcohol and drug use in prenatal care reduces racial disparities in CPS reporting at delivery. Reducing these reporting disparities requires more than universal screening

Recreational 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine or 'ecstasy': Current perspective and future research prospects.

AIMS: The purpose of this article is to debate current understandings about the psychobiological effects of recreational 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or 'ecstasy'), and recommend theoretically-driven topics for future research. METHODS: Recent empirical findings, especially those from novel topic areas were reviewed. Potential causes for the high variance often found in group findings were also examined. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The first empirical reports into psychobiological and psychiatric aspects from the early 1990s concluded that regular users demonstrated some selective psychobiological deficits, for instance worse declarative memory, or heightened depression. More recent research has covered a far wider range of psychobiological functions, and deficits have emerged in aspects of vision, higher cognitive skill, neurohormonal functioning, and foetal developmental outcomes. However, variance levels are often high, indicating that while some recreational users develop problems, others are less affected. Potential reasons for this high variance are debated. An explanatory model based on multi-factorial causation is then proposed. FUTURE DIRECTIONS: A number of theoretically driven research topics are suggested, in order to empirically investigate the potential causes for these diverse psychobiological deficits. Future neuroimaging studies should study the practical implications of any serotonergic and/or neurohormonal changes, using a wide range of functional measures

Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation