An Exact Formula for the Average Run Length to False Alarm of the
Generalized Shiryaev-Roberts Procedure for Change-Point Detection under
Exponential Observations
We derive analytically an exact closed-form formula for the standard minimax
Average Run Length (ARL) to false alarm delivered by the Generalized
Shiryaev-Roberts (GSR) change-point detection procedure devised to detect a
shift in the baseline mean of a sequence of independent exponentially
distributed observations. Specifically, the formula is found through direct
solution of the respective integral (renewal) equation, and is a general result
in that the GSR procedure's headstart is not restricted to a bounded range, nor
is there a "ceiling" value for the detection threshold. Apart from the
theoretical significance (in change-point detection, exact closed-form
performance formulae are typically either difficult or impossible to get,
especially for the GSR procedure), the obtained formula is also useful to a
practitioner: in cases of practical interest, the formula is a function linear
in both the detection threshold and the headstart, and, therefore, the ARL to
false alarm of the GSR procedure can be easily computed.Comment: 9 pages; Accepted for publication in Proceedings of the 12-th
German-Polish Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their
Application