Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961–1990) demonstrated the models’ skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future’ weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of Molecular Hydrogen Emission in Four Reflection Nebulae: NGC 1333, NGC 2023, NGC 2068, and NGC 7023

We present near-infrared spectroscopy of fluorescent molecular hydrogen (H_2) emission from NGC 1333, NGC 2023, NGC 2068, and NGC 7023 and derive the physical properties of the molecular material in these reflection nebulae. Our observations of NGC 2023 and NGC 7023 and the physical parameters we derive for these nebulae are in good agreement with previous studies. Both NGC 1333 and NGC 2068 have no previously-published analysis of near-infrared spectra. Our study reveals that the rotational-vibrational states of molecular hydrogen in NGC 1333 are populated quite differently from NGC 2023 and NGC 7023. We determine that the relatively weak UV field illuminating NGC 1333 is the primary cause of the difference. Further, we find that the density of the emitting material in NGC 1333 is of much lower density, with n ~ 10^2 - 10^4 cm^-3. NGC 2068 has molecular hydrogen line ratios more similar to those of NGC 7023 and NGC 2023. Our model fits to this nebula show that the bright, H_2-emitting material may have a density as high as n ~ 10^5 cm^-3, similar to what we find for NGC 2023 and NGC 7023. Our spectra of NGC 2023 and NGC 7023 show significant changes in both the near-infrared continuum and H_2 intensity along the slit and offsets between the peaks of the H_2 and continuum emission. We find that these brightness changes may correspond to real changes in the density and temperatures of the emitting region, although uncertainties in the total column of emitting material along a given line of sight complicates the interpretation. The spatial difference in the peak of the H_2 and near-infrared continuum peaks in NGC 2023 and NGC 7023 shows that the near-infrared continuum is due to a material which can survive closer to the star than H_2 can.Comment: Submitted for publication in ApJ. 34 pages including 12 embedded postscript figures. Also available at http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/~martini/pub

Surface Kinetics and Generation of Different Terms in a Conservative Growth Equation

A method based on the kinetics of adatoms on a growing surface under epitaxial growth at low temperature in (1+1) dimensions is proposed to obtain a closed form of local growth equation. It can be generalized to any growth problem as long as diffusion of adatoms govern the surface morphology. The method can be easily extended to higher dimensions. The kinetic processes contributing to various terms in the growth equation (GE) are identified from the analysis of in-plane and downward hops. In particular, processes corresponding to the (h -> -h) symmetry breaking term and curvature dependent term are discussed. Consequence of these terms on the stable and unstable transition in (1+1) dimensions is analyzed. In (2+1) dimensions it is shown that an additional (h -> -h) symmetry breaking term is generated due to the in-plane curvature associated with the mound like structures. This term is independent of any diffusion barrier differences between in-plane and out of-plane migration. It is argued that terms generated in the presence of downward hops are the relevant terms in a GE. Growth equation in the closed form is obtained for various growth models introduced to capture most of the processes in experimental Molecular Beam Epitaxial growth. Effect of dissociation is also considered and is seen to have stabilizing effect on the growth. It is shown that for uphill current the GE approach fails to describe the growth since a given GE is not valid over the entire substrate.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Demagnetization via Nucleation of the Nonequilibrium Metastable Phase in a Model of Disorder

We study both analytically and numerically metastability and nucleation in a two-dimensional nonequilibrium Ising ferromagnet. Canonical equilibrium is dynamically impeded by a weak random perturbation which models homogeneous disorder of undetermined source. We present a simple theoretical description, in perfect agreement with Monte Carlo simulations, assuming that the decay of the nonequilibrium metastable state is due, as in equilibrium, to the competition between the surface and the bulk. This suggests one to accept a nonequilibrium "free-energy" at a mesoscopic/cluster level, and it ensues a nonequilibrium "surface tension" with some peculiar low-T behavior. We illustrate the occurrence of intriguing nonequilibrium phenomena, including: (i) Noise-enhanced stabilization of nonequilibrium metastable states; (ii) reentrance of the limit of metastability under strong nonequilibrium conditions; and (iii) resonant propagation of domain walls. The cooperative behavior of our system may also be understood in terms of a Langevin equation with additive and multiplicative noises. We also studied metastability in the case of open boundaries as it may correspond to a magnetic nanoparticle. We then observe burst-like relaxation at low T, triggered by the additional surface randomness, with scale-free avalanches which closely resemble the type of relaxation reported for many complex systems. We show that this results from the superposition of many demagnetization events, each with a well- defined scale which is determined by the curvature of the domain wall at which it originates. This is an example of (apparent) scale invariance in a nonequilibrium setting which is not to be associated with any familiar kind of criticality.Comment: 26 pages, 22 figure

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments (Eoi400, E280) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations

Single Spin Asymmetry ANA_N in Polarized Proton-Proton Elastic Scattering at s=200\sqrt{s}=200 GeV

We report a high precision measurement of the transverse single spin asymmetry $A_N$ at the center of mass energy $\sqrt{s}=200$ GeV in elastic proton-proton scattering by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The $A_N$ was measured in the four-momentum transfer squared $t$ range $0.003 \leqslant |t| \leqslant 0.035$ \GeVcSq, the region of a significant interference between the electromagnetic and hadronic scattering amplitudes. The measured values of $A_N$ and its $t$-dependence are consistent with a vanishing hadronic spin-flip amplitude, thus providing strong constraints on the ratio of the single spin-flip to the non-flip amplitudes. Since the hadronic amplitude is dominated by the Pomeron amplitude at this $\sqrt{s}$, we conclude that this measurement addresses the question about the presence of a hadronic spin flip due to the Pomeron exchange in polarized proton-proton elastic scattering.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Longitudinal double-spin asymmetry and cross section for inclusive neutral pion production at midrapidity in polarized proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV

We report a measurement of the longitudinal double-spin asymmetry A_LL and the differential cross section for inclusive Pi0 production at midrapidity in polarized proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV. The cross section was measured over a transverse momentum range of 1 < p_T < 17 GeV/c and found to be in good agreement with a next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculation. The longitudinal double-spin asymmetry was measured in the range of 3.7 < p_T < 11 GeV/c and excludes a maximal positive gluon polarization in the proton. The mean transverse momentum fraction of Pi0's in their parent jets was found to be around 0.7 for electromagnetically triggered events.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (RC

Partonic flow and ϕ\phi-meson production in Au+Au collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200 GeV

We present first measurements of the $\phi$-meson elliptic flow ($v_{2}(p_{T})$) and high statistics $p_{T}$ distributions for different centralities from $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV Au+Au collisions at RHIC. In minimum bias collisions the $v_{2}$ of the $\phi$ meson is consistent with the trend observed for mesons. The ratio of the yields of the $\Omega$ to those of the $\phi$ as a function of transverse momentum is consistent with a model based on the recombination of thermal $s$ quarks up to $p_{T}\sim 4$ GeV/$c$, but disagrees at higher momenta. The nuclear modification factor ($R_{CP}$) of $\phi$ follows the trend observed in the $K^{0}_{S}$ mesons rather than in $\Lambda$ baryons, supporting baryon-meson scaling. Since $\phi$-mesons are made via coalescence of seemingly thermalized $s$ quarks in central Au+Au collisions, the observations imply hot and dense matter with partonic collectivity has been formed at RHIC.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, submit to PR

High pTp_{T} non-photonic electron production in pp+pp collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 200 GeV

We present the measurement of non-photonic electron production at high transverse momentum ($p_T >$ 2.5 GeV/$c$) in $p$ + $p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV using data recorded during 2005 and 2008 by the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The measured cross-sections from the two runs are consistent with each other despite a large difference in photonic background levels due to different detector configurations. We compare the measured non-photonic electron cross-sections with previously published RHIC data and pQCD calculations. Using the relative contributions of B and D mesons to non-photonic electrons, we determine the integrated cross sections of electrons ($\frac{e^++e^-}{2}$) at 3 GeV/$c < p_T <~$10 GeV/$c$ from bottom and charm meson decays to be ${d\sigma_{(B\to e)+(B\to D \to e)} \over dy_e}|_{y_e=0}$ = 4.0$\pm0.5$({\rm stat.})$\pm1.1$({\rm syst.}) nb and ${d\sigma_{D\to e} \over dy_e}|_{y_e=0}$ = 6.2$\pm0.7$({\rm stat.})$\pm1.5$({\rm syst.}) nb, respectively.Comment: 17 pages, 17 figure

Evolution of the differential transverse momentum correlation function with centrality in Au+Au collisions at sNN=200\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200 GeV

We present first measurements of the evolution of the differential transverse momentum correlation function, {\it C}, with collision centrality in Au+Au interactions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200$ GeV. {\it C} exhibits a strong dependence on collision centrality that is qualitatively similar to that of number correlations previously reported. We use the observed longitudinal broadening of the near-side peak of {\it C} with increasing centrality to estimate the ratio of the shear viscosity to entropy density, $\eta/s$, of the matter formed in central Au+Au interactions. We obtain an upper limit estimate of $\eta/s$ that suggests that the produced medium has a small viscosity per unit entropy.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, STAR paper published in Phys. Lett.