The Pierre Auger Observatory III: Other Astrophysical Observations

Astrophysical observations of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays with the Pierre Auger ObservatoryComment: Contributions to the 32nd International Cosmic Ray Conference, Beijing, China, August 201

Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality

Emerging and re-emerging dengue fever has posed serious problems to public health officials in many tropical and subtropical countries. Continuous traveling in seasonally varying areas makes it more difficult to control the spread of dengue fever. In this work, we consider a two-patch dengue model that can capture the movement of host individuals between and within patches using a residence-time matrix. A previous two-patch dengue model without seasonality is extended by adding host demographics and seasonal forcing in the transmission rates. We investigate the effects of human movement and seasonality on the two-patch dengue transmission dynamics. Motivated by the recent Peruvian dengue data in jungle/rural areas and coast/urban areas, our model mimics the seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks in two patches. The roles of seasonality and residence-time configurations are highlighted in terms of the seasonal reproduction number and cumulative incidence. Moreover, optimal control theory is employed to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in the presence of seasonality. Our findings demonstrate that optimal patch-specific control strategies are sensitive to seasonality and residence-time scenarios. Targeting only the jungle (or endemic) is as effective as controlling both patches under weak coupling or symmetric mobility. However, focusing on intervention for the city (or high density areas) turns out to be optimal when two patches are strongly coupled with asymmetric mobility.ope

Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries. METHODS: We updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010-11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25-74years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Under the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3-14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6-25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6-35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%-11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9-8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3-7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7-5.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Modest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies

Changes in Dietary Fat Intake and Projections for Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Sweden: A Simulation Study.

OBJECTIVE: In Sweden, previous favourable trends in blood cholesterol levels have recently levelled off or even increased in some age groups since 2003, potentially reflecting changing fashions and attitudes towards dietary saturated fatty acids (SFA). We aimed to examine the potential effect of different SFA intake on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in 2025. METHODS: We compared the effect on future CHD mortality of two different scenarios for fat intake a) daily SFA intake decreasing to 10 energy percent (E%), and b) daily SFA intake rising to 20 E%. We assumed that there would be moderate improvements in smoking (5%), salt intake (1g/day) and physical inactivity (5% decrease) to continue recent, positive trends. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario which assumed that recent mortality declines continue, approximately 5,975 CHD deaths might occur in year 2025. Anticipated improvements in smoking, dietary salt intake and physical activity, would result in some 380 (-6.4%) fewer deaths (235 in men and 145 in women). In combination with a mean SFA daily intake of 10 E%, a total of 810 (-14%) fewer deaths would occur in 2025 (535 in men and 275 in women). If the overall consumption of SFA rose to 20 E%, the expected mortality decline would be wiped out and approximately 20 (0.3%) additional deaths might occur. CONCLUSION: CHD mortality may increase as a result of unfavourable trends in diets rich in saturated fats resulting in increases in blood cholesterol levels. These could cancel out the favourable trends in salt intake, smoking and physical activity

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Inhibition of Glioblastoma Growth by the Thiadiazolidinone Compound TDZD-8

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.[Background]: Thiadiazolidinones (TDZD) are small heterocyclic compounds first described as non-ATP competitive inhibitors of glycogen synthase kinase 3 beta (GSK-3 beta). In this study, we analyzed the effects of 4-benzyl-2-methyl-1,2,4-thiadiazolidine-3,5- dione (TDZD-8), on murine GL261 cells growth in vitro and on the growth of established intracerebral murine gliomas in vivo. [Methodology/Principal Findings]: Our data show that TDZD-8 decreased proliferation and induced apoptosis of GL261 glioblastoma cells in vitro, delayed tumor growth in vivo, and augmented animal survival. These effects were associated with an early activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway and increased expression of EGR-1 and p21 genes. Also, we observed a sustained activation of the ERK pathway, a concomitant phosphorylation and activation of ribosomal S6 kinase (p90RSK) and an inactivation of GSK-3 beta by phosphorylation at Ser 9. Finally, treatment of glioblastoma stem cells with TDZD-8 resulted in an inhibition of proliferation and self-renewal of these cells. [Conclusions/Significance]: Our results suggest that TDZD-8 uses a novel mechanism to target glioblastoma cells, and that malignant progenitor population could be a target of this compound.This work was supported by the Ministerio de Educacion y Ciencia grant SAF2007-62811 (to A.P.-C.). CIBERNED is funded by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III. JA.M.-G. and M.S.-S. are fellows of CIBERNED. D.A.-M. is a fellow of the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas.Peer reviewe

Brain metastasis development and poor survival associated with carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level in advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a prospective analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Central nervous system is a common site of metastasis in NSCLC and confers worse prognosis and quality of life. The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical-pathological factors (CPF), serum CEA levels, and EGFR and HER2 tissue-expression in brain metastasis (BM) and overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced NSCLC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a prospective manner, we studied 293 patients with NSCLC in IIIB-IV clinical stage. They received standard chemotherapy. CEA was measured prior to treatment; EGFR and HER2 were evaluated by immunohistochemistry. BM development was confirmed by MRI in symptomatic patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>BM developed in 27, and 32% of patients at 1 and 2 years of diagnosis with adenocarcinoma (RR 5.2; 95% CI, 1.002–29; p = 0.05) and CEA ≥ 40 ng/mL (RR 11.4; 95% CI, 1.7–74; <it>p </it>< 0.01) as independent associated factors. EGFR and HER2 were not statistically significant. Masculine gender (RR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.002–1.9; <it>p </it>= 0.048), poor performance status (RR 1.8; 95% CI, 1.5–2.3; <it>p </it>= 0.002), advanced clinical stage (RR 1.44; 95% CI, 1.02–2; <it>p </it>= 0.04), CEA ≥ 40 ng/mL (RR 1.5; 95% CI, 1.09–2.2; <it>p </it>= 0.014) and EGFR expression (RR 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4–1.9; <it>p </it>= 0.012) were independent associated factors to worse OS.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>High CEA serum level is a risk factor for BM development and is associated with poor prognosis in patients with advanced NSCLC. Surface expression of CEA in tumor cells could be the physiopathological mechanism for invasion to CNS.</p

Concepts for the development of person-centred, digitally-enabled, Artificial Intelligence-assisted ARIA care pathways (ARIA 2024)

The traditional healthcare model is focused on diseases (medicine and natural science) and does not acknowledge patients' resources and abilities to be experts in their own life based on their lived experiences. Improving healthcare safety, quality and coordination, as well as quality of life, are important aims in the care of patients with chronic conditions. Person-centred care needs to ensure that people's values and preferences guide clinical decisions. This paper reviews current knowledge to develop (i) digital care pathways for rhinitis and asthma multimorbidity and (ii) digitally-enabled person-centred care (1). It combines all relevant research evidence, including the so-called real-world evidence, with the ultimate goal to develop digitally-enabled, patient-centred care. The paper includes (i) Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA), a two-decade journey, (ii) Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE), the evidence-based model of guidelines in airway diseases, (iii) mHealth impact on airway diseases, (iv) from guidelines to digital care pathways, (v) embedding Planetary Health, (vi) novel classification of rhinitis and asthma, (vi) embedding real-life data with population-based studies, (vii) the ARIA-EAACI strategy for the management of airway diseases using digital biomarkers, (viii) Artificial Intelligence, (ix) the development of digitally-enabled ARIA Person-Centred Care and (x) the political agenda. The ultimate goal is to propose ARIA 2024 guidelines centred around the patient in order to make them more applicable and sustainable