Can debt ceiling and government shutdown predict US real stock returns? A bootstrap rolling window approach

This paper investigates the in-sample predictability of debt ceiling and government shutdown for real stock returns in the U.S, using rolling window Granger non-causality estimation. Causal links often evolve over time so the use of the bootstrap rolling window approach will account for potential time variations in the relationships. We use monthly time series data on measures of debt ceiling and government shutdown, and real stock returns, covering the period of 1985:M2 to 2013:M9. Since the debt ceiling and government shutdown variables under analysis are exogenous, the use of the in-sample predictability to analyse the relation-ship running from debt ceiling to real stock returns, as well as, from government shutdown to real stock returns will provide evidence of not only whether in-sample predictability exists, but also how predictability varies over time i.e. significance in episodes of high values of index. The full sample bootstrap non-Granger causality test results suggest existence of no in-sample predictability of debt ceiling or government shutdown for real stock returns in the U.S. economy. The stability tests show evidence of parameter instability in the estimated equations. Therefore, we make use of the bootstrap rolling window (24 months) approach to investigate the changes in the in-sample predictability of the relationship, and detect signifi-cant in-sample predictability of debt ceiling and government shutdown for real stock returns at different sub-periods, corresponding especially after the phases where there were sharp increases in the indexes of debt ceiling and government shutdown.http://www.iei1946.it/en/rivista.phphttp://www.ge.camcom.gov.it/IT/Page/t01/view_html?idp=555am2017Economic

Causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in G6 countries : evidence from panel Granger causality tests

Looking at the recent nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, the consequences were not just environmental or economic. The accident was a big hit to the reputation and trust in nuclear power generation making a number of countries reconsider the nuclear energy as an option. The recent financial crisis might have limited even more the developed countries from the necessary capital to invest in expensive power options but this might change in the future if the positive environmental effects of the nuclear power can be proven substantial. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causal link between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth for six developed countries over the period from 1971 to 2011. Granger causality procedure based on Meta-analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels is used to allow for cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The empirical findings for the overall panel support the presence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to nuclear energy consumption across the G-6 countries. However, in the case of UK we find a bidirectional causality running from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth; while the results for Germany confirm the growth hypothesis and for the rest of the countries the neutrality hypothesis.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pnucenehb201

A terminal assessment of stages theory : introducing a dynamic states approach to entrepreneurship

Stages of Growth models were the most frequent theoretical approach to understanding entrepreneurial business growth from 1962 to 2006; they built on the growth imperative and developmental models of that time. An analysis of the universe of such models (N=104) published in the management literature shows no consensus on basic constructs of the approach, nor is there any empirical confirmations of stages theory. However, by changing two propositions of the stages models, a new dynamic states approach is derived. The dynamic states approach has far greater explanatory power than its precursor, and is compatible with leading edge research in entrepreneurship

PIK3CA mutation in HPV-associated OPSCC patients receiving deintensified chemoradiation

PIK3CA is the most frequently mutated gene in human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Prognostic implications of such mutations remain unknown. We sought to elucidate the clinical significance of PIK3CA mutations in HPV-associated OPSCC patients treated with definitive chemoradiation (CRT). Seventyseven patients with HPV-associated OPSCC were enrolled on two phase II clinical trials of deintensified CRT (60 Gy intensitymodulated radiotherapy with concurrent weekly cisplatin). Targeted next-generation sequencing was performed. Of the 77 patients, nine had disease recurrence (two regional, four distant, three regional and distant). Thirty-four patients had mutation( s) identified; 16 had PIK3CA mutations. Patients with wild-type-PIK3CA had statistically significantly higher 3-year disease-free survival than PIK3CA-mutant patients (93.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 85.0% to 99.9% vs 68.8%, 95% CI = 26.7% to 89.8%; P=.004). On multivariate analysis, PIK3CA mutation was the only variable statistically significantly associated with disease recurrence (hazard ratio = 5.71, 95% CI = 1.53 to 21.3; P=.01). PIK3CA mutation is associated with worse diseasefree survival in a prospective cohort of newly diagnosed HPV-associated OPSCC patients treated with deintensified CRT

Procjena prijelazne stabilnosti dvopodručnog energetskog sustava s CSC-STATCOM-om zasnovanom na LQR-u

A current source converter (CSC) based static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) is a shunt flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) device, which has a vital role as a stability support for small and large transient instability in an interconnected power network. A robust linear quadratic regulator (LQR) based controller for CSC-STATCOM is proposed. In this paper, LQR based CSC-STATCOM is designed to enhance the transient stability of two-area two-machine power system. First of all, modeling & LQR based controller design for CSC-STATCOM are described. After that, the impact of the proposed scheme on the test system with different disturbances is demonstrated. The feasibility of the proposed scheme is demonstrated through simulation in MATLAB and the simulation results show an improvement in the transient stability of power system with CSC-STATCOM. Also, the robustness and effectiveness of CSC-STATCOM are better rather than other shunt FACTS devices (SVC & VSC-STATCOM) in this paper.Statički sinkroni kompenzator (STATCOM) zasnovan na pretvaraču strujnog izvora (CSC) je uređaj za izmjenični prijenos s fleksibilnim "shuntom" (FACTS), koji značajno doprinosi stabilnosti malih i srednjih prijelaznih nestabilnosti u međusobno povezanoj energetskoj mreži. Ovdje je predložen robusni sustav upravljanja zasnovan na linearnom kvadratičnom regulatoru (LQR) za CSC-STATCOM. U ovom radu, CSC-STATCOM zasnovan na LQR-u dizajniran je za povećanje stabilnosti dvopodručnog energetskog sustava s dva motora. Prvo su opisani postupak modeliranja te upravljački sustav zasnovan na LQR-u za CSC-STATCOM. Nakon toga, prikazan je utjecaj predstavljene sheme na ispitni sustav uz prisutnost različitih poremećaja. Provedivost predstavljenog pristupa je prikazana kroz MATLAB simulacije čiji rezultati prikazuju poboljšanje u prijelaznoj stabilnosti energetskog sustava s CSC-STATCOM-om. Također, u ovom radu je prikazana veća robusnost i efikasnost CSC-STATCOM "shunt" FACTS uređaja u odnosu na SVC i VSC-STATCOM

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

School-based prevention for adolescent Internet addiction: prevention is the key. A systematic literature review

Adolescents’ media use represents a normative need for information, communication, recreation and functionality, yet problematic Internet use has increased. Given the arguably alarming prevalence rates worldwide and the increasingly problematic use of gaming and social media, the need for an integration of prevention efforts appears to be timely. The aim of this systematic literature review is (i) to identify school-based prevention programmes or protocols for Internet Addiction targeting adolescents within the school context and to examine the programmes’ effectiveness, and (ii) to highlight strengths, limitations, and best practices to inform the design of new initiatives, by capitalizing on these studies’ recommendations. The findings of the reviewed studies to date presented mixed outcomes and are in need of further empirical evidence. The current review identified the following needs to be addressed in future designs to: (i) define the clinical status of Internet Addiction more precisely, (ii) use more current psychometrically robust assessment tools for the measurement of effectiveness (based on the most recent empirical developments), (iii) reconsider the main outcome of Internet time reduction as it appears to be problematic, (iv) build methodologically sound evidence-based prevention programmes, (v) focus on skill enhancement and the use of protective and harm-reducing factors, and (vi) include IA as one of the risk behaviours in multi-risk behaviour interventions. These appear to be crucial factors in addressing future research designs and the formulation of new prevention initiatives. Validated findings could then inform promising strategies for IA and gaming prevention in public policy and education

Integrating sequence and array data to create an improved 1000 Genomes Project haplotype reference panel

A major use of the 1000 Genomes Project (1000GP) data is genotype imputation in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Here we develop a method to estimate haplotypes from low-coverage sequencing data that can take advantage of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarray genotypes on the same samples. First the SNP array data are phased to build a backbone (or 'scaffold') of haplotypes across each chromosome. We then phase the sequence data 'onto' this haplotype scaffold. This approach can take advantage of relatedness between sequenced and non-sequenced samples to improve accuracy. We use this method to create a new 1000GP haplotype reference set for use by the human genetic community. Using a set of validation genotypes at SNP and bi-allelic indels we show that these haplotypes have lower genotype discordance and improved imputation performance into downstream GWAS samples, especially at low-frequency variants. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved