626 research outputs found

    Reconstructing paleoseismic deformation, 2: 1000 years of great earthquakes at Chucalén, south central Chile

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    In this paper we adopt a quantitative biostratigraphic approach to establish a 1000-year-long coastal record of megathrust earthquake and tsunami occurrence in south central Chile. Our investigations focus on a site in the centre of the rupture segment of the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake, the AD 1960 magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake. At Chucalén coseismic subsidence in 1960 is recorded in the lithostratigraphy and biostratigraphy of coastal marshes, with peat overlain by minerogenic sediment and changes in the assemblages of diatoms (unicellular algae) indicating an abrupt increase in relative sea level. In addition to the 1960 earthquake, the stratigraphy at Chucalén records three earlier earthquakes, the historically documented earthquake of 1575 and two prehistoric earthquakes, radiocarbon dated to AD 1270–1450 and 1070–1220. Laterally extensive sand sheets containing marine or brackish diatom assemblages suggest tsunami deposition associated with at least two of the three pre-1960 earthquakes. The record presented here suggests a longer earthquake recurrence interval, averaging 270 years, than the historical recurrence interval, which averages 128 years. The lack of geologic evidence at Chucalén of two historically documented earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, supports the previously suggested hypothesis of variability in historical earthquake characteristics. Our estimates of coseismic land-level change for the four earthquakes range from meter-scale subsidence to no subsidence or slight uplift, suggesting earthquakes completing each ∼270 year cycle may not share a common, characteristic slip distribution. The presence of buried soils at elevations below their modern equivalents implies net relative sea-level rise over the course of the Chucalén paleoseismic record, in contrast to relative sea-level fall over preceding millennia inferred from sites on the mainland. Sea-level rise may contribute to the preservation of evidence for multiple earthquakes during the last millennium, while net relative sea-level fall over the last 2000–5000 years may explain the lack of evidence for older earthquakes

    Time scales and modes of reef lagoon infilling in the Maldives and controls on the onset of reef island formation

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    Faro are annular reefs, with reef flats near sea level and lagoons of variable depth, characteristic of both the perimeter and lagoons of Maldivian (Indian Ocean) atolls. Their geomorphic development remains largely unknown, but where faro lagoons (termed velu in Maldivian) have infilled and support reef islands, these provide precious habitable land. Understanding the timing and modes of velu infilling is thus directly relevant to questions about reef island development and vulnerability. Here we use a chronostratigraphic data set obtained from a range of atoll-interior faro with partially to fully filled velu (including those with reef islands) from Baa (South Maalhosmadulu) Atoll, Maldives, to determine time scales and modes of velu infilling, and to identify the temporal and spatial thresholds that control reef island formation. Our data suggest a systematic relationship between faro size, velu infilling, and island development. These relationships likely vary between atolls as a function of atoll lagoon depth, but in Baa Atoll, our data set indicates the following faro-size relationships exist: (1) faros <∼0.5 km2 have velu that were completely infilled by ca. 3000 calibrated years B.P. (cal yr B.P.) with islands having established on these deposits by ca. 2.5 cal kyr B.P.; (2) faros >0.5 km2 but <∼1.25 km2 have velu in late stages of infill, may support unvegetated sand cays and, given sufficient sand supply, may evolve into larger, more permanent islands; and (3) faros >∼1.25 km2 have unfilled (deeper) velu which might only infill over long time scales and which are thus unlikely to support new island initiation. These new observations, when combined with previously published data on Maldivian reef island development, suggest that while the velu of the largest faro are unlikely to fill over the next few centuries (at least), other faro with near-infilled velu may provide important foci for future reef-island building, even under present highstand (and slightly rising) sea levels

    Properties and nature of Be stars: 27. Orbital and recent long-term variations of the Pleiades Be star Pleione = BU Tauri

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    Radial-velocity variations of the H-alpha emission measured on the steep wings of the H-alpha line, prewhitened for the long-time changes, vary periodically with a period of (218.025 +/- 0.022)d, confirming the suspected binary nature of the bright Be star Pleione, a member of the Pleiades cluster. The orbit seems to have a high eccentricity over 0.7, but we also briefly discuss the possibility that the true orbit is circular and that the eccentricity is spurious owing to the phase-dependent effects of the circumstellar matter. The projected angular separation of the spectroscopic orbit is large enough to allow the detection of the binary with large optical interferometers, provided the magnitude difference primary - secondary is not too large. Since our data cover the onset of a new shell phase up to development of a metallic shell spectrum, we also briefly discuss the recent long-term changes. We confirm the formation of a new envelope, coexisting with the previous one, at the onset of the new shell phase. We find that the full width at half maximum of the H-alpha profile has been decreasing with time for both envelopes. In this connection, we briefly discuss Hirata's hypothesis of precessing gaseous disk and possible alternative scenarios of the observed long-term changes

    Long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and the incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a national English cohort.

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    OBJECTIVES: The role of outdoor air pollution in the incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains unclear. We investigated this question using a large, nationally representative cohort based on primary care records linked to hospital admissions. METHODS: A cohort of 812 063 patients aged 40-89 years registered with 205 English general practices in 2002 without a COPD diagnosis was followed from 2003 to 2007. First COPD diagnoses recorded either by a general practitioner (GP) or on admission to hospital were identified. Annual average concentrations in 2002 for particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 µm (PM10) and <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone and sulfur dioxide (SO2) at 1 km(2) resolution were estimated from emission-based dispersion models. Hazard ratios (HRs) per interquartile range change were estimated from Cox models adjusting for age, sex, smoking, body mass index and area-level deprivation. RESULTS: 16 034 participants (1.92%) received a COPD diagnosis from their GP and 2910 participants (0.35%) were admitted to hospital for COPD. After adjustment, HRs for GP recorded COPD and PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 were close to unity, positive for SO2 (HR=1.07 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.11) per 2.2 µg/m(3)) and negative for ozone (HR=0.94 (0.89 to 1.00) per 3 µg/m(3)). For admissions HRs for PM2.5 and NO2 remained positive (HRs=1.05 (0.98 to 1.13) and 1.06 (0.98 to 1.15) per 1.9 µg/m(3) and 10.7 µg/m(3), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This large population-based cohort study found limited, inconclusive evidence for associations between air pollution and COPD incidence. Further work, utilising improved estimates of air pollution over time and enhanced socioeconomic indicators, is required to clarify the association between air pollution and COPD incidence

    Unintended Consequences of Incentive Provision for Behaviour Change and Maintenance around Childbirth

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    Financial (positive or negative) and non-financial incentives or rewards are increasingly used in attempts to influence health behaviours. While unintended consequences of incentive provision are discussed in the literature, evidence syntheses did not identify any primary research with the aim of investigating unintended consequences of incentive interventions for lifestyle behaviour change. Our objective was to investigate perceived positive and negative unintended consequences of incentive provision for a shortlist of seven promising incentive strategies for smoking cessation in pregnancy and breastfeeding. A multi-disciplinary, mixed-methods approach included involving two service-user mother and baby groups from disadvantaged areas with experience of the target behaviours as study co-investigators. Systematic reviews informed the shortlist of incentive strategies. Qualitative semi-structured interviews and a web-based survey of health professionals asked open questions on positive and negative consequences of incentives. The participants from three UK regions were a diverse sample with and without direct experience of incentive interventions: 88 pregnant women/recent mothers/partners/family members; 53 service providers; 24 experts/decision makers and interactive discussions with 63 conference attendees. Maternity and early years health professionals (n = 497) including doctors, midwives, health visitors, public health and related staff participated in the survey. Qualitative analysis identified ethical, political, cultural, social and psychological implications of incentive delivery at population and individual levels. Four key themes emerged: how incentives can address or create inequalities; enhance or diminish intrinsic motivation and wellbeing; have a positive or negative effect on relationships with others within personal networks or health providers; and can impact on health systems and resources by raising awareness and directing service delivery, but may be detrimental to other health care areas. Financial incentives are controversial and generated emotive and oppositional responses. The planning, design and delivery of future incentive interventions should evaluate unexpected consequences to inform the evidence for effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and future implementation

    Green walkability and physical activity in UK biobank: a cross-sectional analysis of adults in Greater London

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    Urban greenspace provides opportunities for outdoor exercise and may increase physical activity, with accompanying health benefits. Areas suitable for walking (walkability) are also associated with increased physical activity, but interactions with greenspace are poorly understood. We investigated associations of walkability and green walkability with physical activity in an urban adult cohort. We used cross-sectional data from Greater London UK Biobank participants (n = 57,726) and assessed walkability along roads and footpaths within 1000 m of their residential addresses. Additionally, we assessed green walkability by integrating trees and low-lying vegetation into the walkability index. Physical activity outcomes included self-reported and accelerometer-measured physical activity and active transport. We assessed associations using log-linear, logistic and linear regression models, adjusted for individual- and area-level confounders. Higher green walkability was associated with favourable International Physical Activity Questionnaire responses and achievement of weekly UK government physical activity guideline recommendations. Participants living in the highest versus lowest quintile of green walkability participated in 2.41 min (95% confidence intervals: 0.22, 4.60) additional minutes of moderate-and-vigorous physical activity per day. Higher walkability and green walkability scores were also associated with choosing active transport modes such as walking and cycling. Our green walkability approach demonstrates the utility in accounting for walkability and greenspace simultaneously to understand the role of the built environment on physical activity
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