Predicted Deep-Sea Coral Habitat Suitability for the U.S. West Coast

Regional scale habitat suitability models provide finer scale resolution and more focused predictions of where organisms may occur. Previous modelling approaches have focused primarily on local and/or global scales, while regional scale models have been relatively few. In this study, regional scale predictive habitat models are presented for deep-sea corals for the U.S. West Coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Model results are intended to aid in future research or mapping efforts and to assess potential coral habitat suitability both within and outside existing bottom trawl closures (i.e. Essential Fish Habitat (EFH)) and identify suitable habitat within U.S. National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS). Deep-sea coral habitat suitability was modelled at 500 m×500 m spatial resolution using a range of physical, chemical and environmental variables known or thought to influence the distribution of deep-sea corals. Using a spatial partitioning cross-validation approach, maximum entropy models identified slope, temperature, salinity and depth as important predictors for most deep-sea coral taxa. Large areas of highly suitable deep-sea coral habitat were predicted both within and outside of existing bottom trawl closures and NMS boundaries. Predicted habitat suitability over regional scales are not currently able to identify coral areas with pin point accuracy and probably overpredict actual coral distribution due to model limitations and unincorporated variables (i.e. data on distribution of hard substrate) that are known to limit their distribution. Predicted habitat results should be used in conjunction with multibeam bathymetry, geological mapping and other tools to guide future research efforts to areas with the highest probability of harboring deep-sea corals. Field validation of predicted habitat is needed to quantify model accuracy, particularly in areas that have not been sampled

Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems

Modeling habitat distribution from organism occurrences and environmental data: case study using anemonefishes and their sea anemone hosts

We demonstrate the KGSMapper (Kansas Geological Survey Mapper), a straightforward, web-based biogeographic tool that uses environmental conditions of places where members\ud of a taxon are known to occur to find other places containing suitable habitat for them. Using occurrence data for anemonefishes or their host sea anemones, and data for environmental parameters, we generated maps of suitable habitat for the organisms. The fact that the fishes are obligate symbionts of the anemones allowed us to validate the KGSMapper output: we were able to compare the inferred\ud occurrence of the organism to that of the actual occurrence of its symbiont. Characterizing suitable habitat for these organisms in the Indo-West Pacific, the region where they naturally occur, can be used to guide conservation efforts, field work, etc.; defining suitable habitat for them in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific is relevant to identifying areas vulnerable to biological invasions. We advocate\ud distinguishing between these 2 sorts of model output, terming the former maps of realized habitat and the latter maps of potential habitat. Creation of a niche model requires adding biotic data to the environmental data used for habitat maps: we included data on fish occurrences to infer anemone distribution and vice versa. Altering the selection of environmental variables allowed us to investigate which variables may exert the most influence on organism distribution. Adding variables does not necessarily improve precision of the model output. KGSMapper output distinguishes areas that fall within 1 standard deviation (SD) of the mean environmental variable values for places where members of the taxon occur, within 2 SD, and within the entire range of values; eliminating outliers or data known to be imprecise or inaccurate improved output precision mainly in the 2 SD range and\ud beyond. Thus, KGSMapper is robust in the face of questionable data, offering the user a way to recognize\ud and clean such data. It also functions well with sparse datasets. These features make it useful for biogeographic meta-analyses with the diverse, distributed datasets that are typical for marine organisms lacking direct commercial value

Short-term metabolic and growth responses of the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa to ocean acidification

Cold-water corals are associated with high local biodiversity, but despite their importance as ecosystem engineers, little is known about how these organisms will respond to projected ocean acidification. Since preindustrial times, average ocean pH has decreased from 8.2 to ~8.1, and predicted CO2 emissions will decrease by up to another 0.3 pH units by the end of the century. This decrease in pH may have a wide range of impacts upon marine life, and in particular upon calcifiers such as cold-water corals. Lophelia pertusa is the most widespread cold-water coral (CWC) species, frequently found in the North Atlantic. Here, we present the first short-term (21 days) data on the effects of increased CO2 (750 ppm) upon the metabolism of freshly collected L. pertusa from Mingulay Reef Complex, Scotland, for comparison with net calcification. Over 21 days, corals exposed to increased CO2 conditions had significantly lower respiration rates (11.4±1.39 SE, µmol O2 g?1 tissue dry weight h?1) than corals in control conditions (28.6±7.30 SE µmol O2 g?1 tissue dry weight h?1). There was no corresponding change in calcification rates between treatments, measured using the alkalinity anomaly technique and 14C uptake. The decrease in respiration rate and maintenance of calcification rate indicates an energetic imbalance, likely facilitated by utilisation of lipid reserves. These data from freshly collected L. pertusa from the Mingulay Reef Complex will help define the impact of ocean acidification upon the growth, physiology and structural integrity of this key reef framework forming species